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Gavin (CliffToCoast)

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About Gavin (CliffToCoast)

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    Stuttgart's Finest

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  1. Makes sense (ish). That's an alternative approach to the 'lockdown to 0' approach. Will be hard to run/plan business in an on/off world...
  2. That's brutal. I was thinking christmas or shortly after as worst case. 18 months will put is in a whole new world/society.
  3. Agree - the sooner you strangle this, the better off you are in the long run. Every day we delay will cost us multiples of days in duration. I like the nz response.
  4. Agree - not sure how many people are social distancing seriously yet....shops still open, people still cruising around, hairdressers, beauticians etc still operating. Hopefully we're pulling that '3' rate down a little but as you say, the impact of that 'down from 3' won't hit for 7 days yet and until that spread rate gets below 1.5 we are in the shit. The time to attack this was about 10 days ago when the cases were much smaller...but at that point it doesn't look like much of a problem
  5. There is no doubt a lock down will come. It has come in every city around the world that is in front of us with similar policy responses - some people seem to think we will be different. Our policy responses to this point have been reactive (look at the mindset of locking down once it gets over 1500....there is 100% it will get over 1500 so why not lock down early, means less time locked down). Anyway that's the govt framework we have so that's how it will roll - incremental tightening at pre-defined points chasing that ever steeper curve up on a 1.5 week lag. Not only are our infections increasing, they are increasing at an increasing rate - our path is set. My previous life was in maths & in particular non linear applied fields - this is a textbook case of exponential growth, which our minds are just not geared to....in an evolutionary sense we've only needed linear analysis so that's how our minds work. With a reproductive/spread rate of 3 (research has it between 2.3 to 6 depending on the paper but final figures will be close to 3) 1 person will give it to 3 others. 10 iterations of this & you have 3^10 or 59000 cases. As a relative reference point the flu will pass to 13 and a bit people after 10 iterations. Just for giggles, if we get to 15 iterations before we seriously isolate each case will generate 14 348 907 cases....which is kind of a 'let it run' course and of course you have crossovers and deaths so the real rate lowers significantly down from that 14mil. Think about the past two weeks & consider how many of those '1 infected persons' have been cruising through the community due to mixed messaging from the govt and 'no dramas' attitudes (given we are not community testing we don't know how many, but each one will have a potential multiple of 59000 until we get serious). We are going to get smashed. I laugh at the idea we haven't had community transmissions - how would we know given you can't get testing unless you cross a 'confirmed case' (due to lack of testing kits). Batten down if you haven't yet & look to other locked down cities for a preview. Sad. Rant over My day job now is in the fb & we know what's coming...we are going to get smashed as well given the ambos won't cope (can barely cover a normal flue season) & we are next on the list to go around & do whatever needs to be done - won't be pretty.
  6. Curve is vertical. Confirmed cases today are from contacts 4+ days ago. It's just getting warmed up...
  7. I thought (mistakenly) that the decision to double the 'jobseeker' and the leaning on banks to offer pause buttons on mortgages and business loans was setting up for a complete pause in commercial society (rather than just hospitality at this point). Akin to economic amputation but I'm not sure what the alternative is. fwiw, we just shut our (very small) doors. My assumption was shut until christmas but I now wonder if it will be longer.
  8. Agree - we are vastly different to Italy in many ways. To this point, our numbers have a parallel trajectory. Hopefully we will get our shit together faster than they did & not follow the same end game. Seeing the usual crowds out & about this past weekend hasn't left me with a lot of optimism. It now appears to be a 6 month plus game that we're slowly getting into & that will just wipe out a lot of people & businesses. Edit - most of the impact of this past few days won't be seen for 5 - 14 days, at which point it will be a very different situation.
  9. Two things that have caught my eye & further reinforced my thoughts over the last 24 hours.
  10. The closest beach to me (Stanwell Park about 1hr south of sydney) also more crowded than I've ever seen it, people everywhere in cafes & when I dropped in to a local school to pick up some work for my son I was amazed to see the usual huddle of parents, as close as usual. Received an email about harmony day at our local school today, pictures of groups of kids hugging and holding each other. Can't believe it - we are going to follow Italy. Everyone's missed the point. I honestly can't believe the lack of communal/civic responsibility. Anyway, we're all different beasts & I'm forced to conclude that (in my area at least) I'm outside the norm with my thinking. Will be a very interesting next 6 weeks as this really ramps up (I noticed California issued a 'shelter in place' directive today...getting ready for that type of knee jerk reaction). Never mind the 4000 odd people who docked yesterday from a cruise ship and allowed to just roll out. I'm mystified. Edit - going for a blast in a Porsche as soon as I can, while it's still allowed.
  11. Day two of home schooling in our household - aaaaarghh. Pretty much impossible to get much else done (& I've got 15 yrs in ed background so I'd like to think I'm better equipped than most). Kids sport have all been shut down so it's full on cabin fever for a couple of months with me on day release twice per week to go to a fire station. Our fuel usage has gone through the floor.
  12. Following on from @Skidmarks enhancements on the 912/6 (looks great) I've embarked on a new look for an old warhorse - going hippychick for a while. I'm sure some won't approve but I'm loving it. Hand spray on white wrap so easy to alter should I have a change of heart.
  13. I'd say point 1 is hitting the nail on the head. Your point around the difference between cars and boats is something I'd previously encountered and there is a significant difference in the psychology of the two groups.
  14. yep - and that's why I feel the govt will take some pretty serious action in the next 1 - 3 days. If you close schools it also forces parents to limit their work movements and if you combine that with shutting down big events you can probably knock 40% off the transmission rate without any too much additional action. We have the luxury of comparing the paths/actions of other countries & cherry picking the best response. This isn't the chart I was looking for (the one I was after compared Singapore, HK, Japan, China, Italy & Aus) but it is close enough. Italy went from 100 to 10000 in 2 weeks. We are well past 100. The govt will aim to get to 10000 in months rather than weeks and that's only possible by locking things down a bit (and yet at the same time they don't wish to scare the punters...panic buying etc). A very skinny tightrope to walk
  15. I attended a Novotel hotel recently for work and it was very much an empty shell. Skeleton staff only and walking around the floors was dead silence - very much unlike the usual hum you'd get in a hotel with voices, lifts, music pipes & aircon. Felt entirely weird, as if the building was in shutdown caretaker mode. They quoted 20% occupancy rate but those 20% must have all stepped out for the evening...

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