Autonomous EVs

[DJM]

i think Tony Seba's video about EVs and ride sharing was posted here a while ago.  For those interested, check this out.  He predicts 95% of all passenger miles will be in autonomous shared EVs by 2030 ?  It's a long read but fascinating and quite compelling.

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/5912307e725e25a34efe5497/1494364316456/RethinkX+Report_050917+(1).pdf

Plenty of detail to back up his story and when you think digital cameras, mobile phones etc, it all sounds pretty compelling. NHP reckons 100M abandoned used cars in the US by 2030 as 247M cars on the road now falls to 44M as ride sharing takes over.  New and used car market and the oil industry are destroyed.

At least the roads will be clear for Dinosaurs roaring around this hills in their Porsches!  

If he is even half right, it makes you think that the car manufacturers and governments are asleep at the wheel as this massive disruption looms.

fascinating stuff.  I fully expect a detailed rebuttal from Smit which might break the forum.......

[Shady Speedway]

They have raced them for the first time recently. Speeds up to 160kph.

I should mention it was 2 cars and it ended in a crash.

[firstone]

Ride sharing?

People are more independent, individual, and dominant than ever.

I don't see it without a war.

Ask me if I see a war?

Bloody monkey's in shoe's. 

[Coastr]

Ride sharing has been the pet cause for many years, hence carpool lanes and all sorts of schemes, all of which have generally failed to catch on.

people like ride sharing like they like house sharing.  Ask yourself if there have been more or less fences and walls erected over the last twenty years.

I think autonomous cars are a great idea - particularly with parents approaching the time where maybe they mightn't pass the test one of these years.  And the idea of people returning to pubs without driving home is also good on many levels.

However people are delusional if they think autonomous cars are going to reduce the size of the car fleet or the miles driven per year.  That's like expecting the arrival of the iPhone to reduce the amount of time spent using a phone.  When you reduce the cost of something, people stupidly assume consumption levels will stay the same.  

What will happen with widely available autonomous cars is more ownership - no longer restricted to those with a license - and more passenger miles - no longer have to pay the 'cost' of sitting in the drivers seat.  What rich public school mum wouldn't fork out for a little econobox to run the kids to school while hers drove her and the girls to tennis?

The only way to reduce passenger miles driven is to change the layout of suburbs and city life, to decentralise and make smaller walkable areas with smaller business in them.  It might be a good idea but very unlikely to happen.

[tazzieman]

It's gonna be fun running across the road in front of these autobraking cars ;<) I'll be wearing abuse-cancelling headphones of course. 

I trust the cars will have self cleaning windows (for all the spilt lattes).

[MFX]

i think Tony Seba's video about EVs and ride sharing was posted here a while ago.  For those interested, check this out.  He predicts 95% of all passenger miles will be in autonomous shared EVs by 2030 ?  It's a long read but fascinating and quite compelling.

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/5912307e725e25a34efe5497/1494364316456/RethinkX+Report_050917+(1).pdf

Plenty of detail to back up his story and when you think digital cameras, mobile phones etc, it all sounds pretty compelling. NHP reckons 100M abandoned used cars in the US by 2030 as 247M cars on the road now falls to 44M as ride sharing takes over.  New and used car market and the oil industry are destroyed.

At least the roads will be clear for Dinosaurs roaring around this hills in their Porsches!  

If he is even half right, it makes you think that the car manufacturers and governments are asleep at the wheel as this massive disruption looms.

fascinating stuff.  I fully expect a detailed rebuttal from Smit which might break the forum...

There was quite a bit of discussion about this topic a couple of months ago. I think he is onto something that is coming. But I think 95% is a massive exaggeration. I don't think it takes into account a lot of scenarios. If you live in an apartment in the city, then I would say you probably wouldn't need your own car. If you live in a more remote area, you are a tradie, even if you have young kids with car seats, etc, you are probably not going to be that keen on using an Uber...

[tazzieman]

Ride sharin' hipsters

And what about freight transport??? Trucks haulin' huge batteries across the country?

[Cars And Coffee Byron Bay]

Ride sharin' hipsters

And what about freight transport??? Trucks haulin' huge batteries across the country?

i see @symsy on top heading to a Byron festival . Thats how we roll.

[LeeM]

 The SA government closed a few lanes heading into the city so that they can have bus only lanes for city workers, and reduce the amount of smelly cancer causing cars (maybe they haven't read the memo about diesel powered vehicles yet?), yet it has caused more congestion for those that don't work in the city , and they can't work out why? Huh? Smart people these politicians. As per normal, it's counter productive with these idiots in power, which is why I'd love to win a few million, and live out in the sticks. Not too far from civilisation, but enough to not have to deal with traffic every day.

[Cars And Coffee Byron Bay]

 The SA government closed a few lanes heading into the city so that they can have bus only lanes for city workers, and reduce the amount of smelly cancer causing cars (maybe they haven't read the memo about diesel powered vehicles yet?), yet it has caused more congestion for those that don't work in the city , and they can't work out why? Huh? Smart people these politicians. As per normal, it's counter productive with these idiots in power, which is why I'd love to win a few million, and live out in the sticks. Not too far from civilisation, but enough to not have to deal with traffic every day.

Byron Bay all the way for you, @LeeM.   1 hour 38min (my best so far) from Brisbane CBD, yet a million miles from reality.

[Coastr]

 The SA government closed a few lanes heading into the city so that they can have bus only lanes for city workers, and reduce the amount of smelly cancer causing cars (maybe they haven't read the memo about diesel powered vehicles yet?), yet it has caused more congestion for those that don't work in the city , and they can't work out why? Huh? Smart people these politicians. As per normal, it's counter productive with these idiots in power, which is why I'd love to win a few million, and live out in the sticks. Not too far from civilisation, but enough to not have to deal with traffic every day.

to be fair to the politicians it was probably some genius career public servant who came up with that idea, and the most a politician did was turn up for a photo op and add it to their re-election flyer.

the last thing a social engineering beuracrat wants is a politician meddling in their business of pushing the public into modes of life they don't want.  You will have high density living and no cars and YOU WILL ENJOY IT!  

I agree going the coastal lifestyle is the ideal antidote, but you have to watch carefully for the encroaching planners waiting to 'fix things'.

[smit2100]

i think Tony Seba's video about EVs and ride sharing was posted here a while ago.  For those interested, check this out.  He predicts 95% of all passenger miles will be in autonomous shared EVs by 2030 ?  It's a long read but fascinating and quite compelling.

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/5912307e725e25a34efe5497/1494364316456/RethinkX+Report_050917+(1).pdf

Plenty of detail to back up his story and when you think digital cameras, mobile phones etc, it all sounds pretty compelling. NHP reckons 100M abandoned used cars in the US by 2030 as 247M cars on the road now falls to 44M as ride sharing takes over.  New and used car market and the oil industry are destroyed.

At least the roads will be clear for Dinosaurs roaring around this hills in their Porsches!  

If he is even half right, it makes you think that the car manufacturers and governments are asleep at the wheel as this massive disruption looms.

fascinating stuff.  I fully expect a detailed rebuttal from Smit which might break the forum.......

Not one to say no to an invitation to indulge.  Here goes as an entrée in terms of some related thoughts to your post

1) Executive summary attached in the form of a link as a starter given the theme of links in terms of a rebuttal that I fully concur with.  Take note of the restaurant analogies

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000618660

2) Need to redefine the meaning of Outlaw in the context of Porsche's in the future  Eg Aging men in their plus 60's that have paid for some anti socialist hackers to develop a  home brew valentine next gen anti GPS/ anti camera anti radar / anti wi fi tracking jamming unit fitted to their  non self driving autonomous vehicles that have something called a clutch that is required to be used to put themselves and the car into motion that run on home brew corn juice that resembles something from the bygone years known as E85.  These outlaws have an incurable anti social disease called hoonism that can't be removed from their DNA and are spurred on  with their need to get high occasionally on  burning octane to release those non virtually derived endorphins and adrenaline (coining it as aromatic therapy in the hydrocarbon sense).  They are well co-ordinated in their activities and stoop to sophisticated modes of communication to organise something referred to as SMT's which occur at infrequent times under the cover of semi darkness i.e  each  own a trained homing pigeon as a pet that fly undected in today's world and they heavily utilise scribed inked notes on pieces of home brew pulp the size of those things called postage stamps back in the day that are carbonated once read. Each P outlaw appear  to also own something referred to as a home brew fountain pen (looks like a feather off their pigeon's with the end of the feather sharpened).   

 

[sandy468]

[Redracn]

New Business Venture. Electronics to make your car look autonomous while so you can DRIVE it. Not to mention the fun that could be had making the iCars look stupid. Spilt coffee and gridlock! or unable to backout of or enter your drive or any other false information prank you can think of.

Autonomous does not mean EV as the E incorrectly implies Batteries are used but in reality you can use any power source and any method of converting the energy into motion and still be Autonomous. Why not a Humanoid Robot  to drive for you which could also perform other tasks?

Going Electric(Battery) will mean personal travel is only for the select few as there is simply not enough electricity being generated to replace the liquid fuel consumption and the two unreliables (Wind/Solar) will never be able to meet the demand unless the demand is very very very (I do mean many orders of magnitude) substantially reduced. Hence only the rich can travel just like the good old days. 

[Cars And Coffee Byron Bay]

I can't wait to hack one

[DJM]

I neglected to mention that I have a 2T caravan and a gas guzzling turbo rotary race car on a trailer.  Let me call Uber to send one of those autonomous EVs to tow my trailer to Phillip island and back.......cant see giving up my diesel SUV tow car any time soon.

but people in New York said the same about giving up their horses - it'll never happen!

If it does happen and I remain a renegade in my self driver, I'll get home quickly carving up the freeway and forcing all those automatons to safely brake and swerve to avoid me.  

[tazzieman]

 which is why I'd love to win a few million, and live out in the sticks. Not too far from civilisation, but enough to not have to deal with traffic every day.

A lot less than a mill will buy you that in Hobart. Beach or mountain view? Or both? 1 hour to the mainland if you need your busy fix.

[Pork Chops]

fascinating stuff.  I fully expect a detailed rebuttal from Smit which might break the forum.......

lol

i think Tony Seba's video about EVs and ride sharing was posted here a while ago.  For those interested, check this out.  He predicts 95% of all passenger miles will be in autonomous shared EVs by 2030 ?  It's a long read but fascinating and quite compelling.

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/5912307e725e25a34efe5497/1494364316456/RethinkX+Report_050917+(1).pdf

Plenty of detail to back up his story and when you think digital cameras, mobile phones etc, it all sounds pretty compelling. NHP reckons 100M abandoned used cars in the US by 2030 as 247M cars on the road now falls to 44M as ride sharing takes over.  New and used car market and the oil industry are destroyed.

At least the roads will be clear for Dinosaurs roaring around this hills in their Porsches!  

If he is even half right, it makes you think that the car manufacturers and governments are asleep at the wheel as this massive disruption looms.

fascinating stuff.  I fully expect a detailed rebuttal from Smit which might break the forum.......

Come on mate.  It'll NEVER happen.  ICE is here to stay man.  Over my dead body etc.

[Redracn]

 

but people in New York said the same about giving up their horses - it'll never happen!

 

They may very well be using horses again in the near future to move any freight etc. interesting to see how the few EV that can get enough charge to operate handle the slippery s#%^ sorry dung.  But given the US is charging ahead with Natural Gas to power everything it will most likely be Adelaide operating with horses. Even then the stench would be preferable to what comes from their parliament. 

[Coastr]

They may very well be using horses again in the near future to move any freight etc. interesting to see how the few EV that can get enough charge to operate handle the slippery s#%^ sorry dung.  But given the US is charging ahead with Natural Gas to power everything it will most likely be Adelaide operating with horses. Even then the stench would be preferable to what comes from their parliament. 

harsh but fair ... play on 

[Redracn]

SA wont be alone for long VIC is right behind them.

There will be a good use for excess fossil fuel with no combustion cars on the road. We can use it in petrol/diesel generators to charge our electric vehicles. Of course this will pollute more as it is way less efficient but hey this is about feeling good right?/sacr

[LeeM]

SA wont be alone for long VIC is right behind them.

There will be a good use for excess fossil fuel with no combustion cars on the road. We can use it in petrol/diesel generators to charge our electric vehicles. Of course this will pollute more as it is way less efficient but hey this is about feeling good right?/sacr

 We get our power from the Victorian grid. Another great idea by our idiotic government. First its give them the F1's (though in hindsight, that's probably not a bad thing with the current hairdryers they drive), now we pay them for power!

 You can probably guess by now that slimy mutt Weatherill and his cronies are not my favourite people! 

[MFX]

I have heard a few ad's on the radio at the moment spruiking 'high-efficiency coal' power plants. I think that is going to be a hard sell these days.

[Redracn]

I have heard a few ad's on the radio at the moment spruiking 'high-efficiency coal' power plants. I think that is going to be a hard sell these days.

Yep China is leading the way with these HELE (High Efficiency Low Emmisions) plants. They would make a significant reduction to CO2 emissions here. But no chance of getting any despite the benefits.  Its about time an appropriate herbicide was applied to the stupid greens.

[Coastr]

I have heard a few ad's on the radio at the moment spruiking 'high-efficiency coal' power plants. I think that is going to be a hard sell these days.

wait until the power has been out for a few days.  The mood might have shifted somewhat.

SA can't power itself and relies on Vic for power.  Tas can power as long as they have water, but rely on Vic for backup.  Vic just switched off 20% of supply.  Vic will rely on NSW for backup.  NSW is on razor thin margins and relies on QLD for backup. More stations are slated for closure.

Meanwhile, Newcastle port ships out coal for HELE plants in China and India so they can have electricity.  But we're not allowed to use it, because, well, not sure why.  When everyone else figures out what is going on they might request to rejoin the 21st century like our Chinese and Indian friends.  And that means power stations, big ones.  Eventually.

In the meantime work out what it costs to replace the contents of your fridge and freezer and compare to a small generator.  Ask someone in SA for the sums and see if it adds up for you.  It certainly did for me.