Hypothetical question on Porsche purchase vs invest money in fixed term account

[twro]

Does anyone know of a reference source for deciding which are "rare P cars"? i.e. is there somewhere I can find a list of models with AU import figures?

@1q2w3e4r lists some above, where do you find this info from, please?

I've been following this thread with interest, and agree with the consensus of a $600k car being a risky (but fun/nerve wracking) investment. The other thing you might consider when investing is where do you have an 'information advantage'? If you are better at researching and buying P cars than others, then go ahead and you can probably do well - same goes for property, or shares (no insider trading please). This doesn't apply to Index Funds, or Turbo's on the shop floor at Duttons! If your information advantage means that you know how to import and register a 964 Turbo from NZ to AU without problems then do that! 

Tim

[MFX]

9 minutes ago, twro said:

Does anyone know of a reference source for deciding which are "rare P cars"? i.e. is there somewhere I can find a list of models with AU import figures?

@1q2w3e4r lists some above, where do you find this info from, please?

I've been following this thread with interest, and agree with the consensus of a $600k car being a risky (but fun/nerve wracking) investment. The other thing you might consider when investing is where do you have an 'information advantage'? If you are better at researching and buying P cars than others, then go ahead and you can probably do well - same goes for property, or shares (no insider trading please). This doesn't apply to Index Funds, or Turbo's on the shop floor at Duttons! If your information advantage means that you know how to import and register a 964 Turbo from NZ to AU without problems then do that! 

Tim

Just being rare does not necessarily mean it will be a good investment. When it comes to P cars emotion plays a much bigger part than any rational numbers.

[Skidmarks]

If it’s going to be a dominant investment in your pool, don’t.

For me, a 964 Turbo might be a little rare but I wouldn’t buy one at that money.  Or probably at all.  

My measure is if they built or are building less that say 1500-2000 of them (or if you look at the lower production runs of the 60’s and 70’s and allow for some attrition that brings what’s left into that number) they’re maybe on the “investment” radar.  And even then you may end up simply having it holding its price.  

That said, a 991 Turbo S Exclusive is another 650k car.  They made 500.  It’s no investment.   

And only buy a car as an investment if you can afford to take a hit in the short term or you need to dump it or hold it long and see how you go.  

There’s not much short term upside in the current market on collectable P cars in my view.  

There is some fantastic new stuff coming on which if you can get your hands on them might be worth a long term position but they’re big money.

Buy what you can and enjoy it when you can.  If the price of it would make you nervous, don’t buy it.  

 

 

 

[ANF]

The 928 CS is a very rare car, they made 19, it is only rare and collectable to 928 nuts like me

It will most likely never ascend to the heights of 911 based specials, except for the one owned by Derek Bell, this car sold recently in the $300 to $400k region...

Rare-ness does guarantee profit, actually nothing does... I keep saying it, logic has no place here!

[OZ930]

In the '70's when the price of bullion was stagnant at around USD$150 an ounce and decreasing, while IB 911's were going through the roof, there was an an advert. in car magazines that posed the question,

" which is the better investment, bullion or a 911?"  (along those lines anyway)

 

 

 

 

[JWM]

2 hours ago, ANF said:

Rare-ness does guarantee profit, actually nothing does... I keep saying it, logic has no place here!

So true with cars, and many things. As I read in a book recently ... humans are good at rationalising, not being rational.

[1q2w3e4r]

7 hours ago, twro said:

Does anyone know of a reference source for deciding which are "rare P cars"? i.e. is there somewhere I can find a list of models with AU import figures?

@1q2w3e4r lists some above, where do you find this info from, please?

I've been following this thread with interest, and agree with the consensus of a $600k car being a risky (but fun/nerve wracking) investment. The other thing you might consider when investing is where do you have an 'information advantage'? If you are better at researching and buying P cars than others, then go ahead and you can probably do well - same goes for property, or shares (no insider trading please). This doesn't apply to Index Funds, or Turbo's on the shop floor at Duttons! If your information advantage means that you know how to import and register a 964 Turbo from NZ to AU without problems then do that! 

Tim

Hey Tim, there's plenty of information around now on the web on it now.  Other information I've included around some of the numbers locally come from conversations with mates who've share what they've learnt over the years.  I don't know the exact numbers of the cars delivered locally from memory but someone who knows more will correct me but I thought there were <30 993 RS, there were approx 28 996 GT2s, 12 996 GT3RS and 12 (or 15 as there are conflicting numbers) 993 TTS, I believe there are circa 15 996 TTS with 4 cabs and a few manuals.  Porsche made about 1500 Turbo S' across tiptronic and 6MT options, but only 600 are coupes, so a manual 996 TTS is still a rare car.

From memory the rarest cars of the last 20 years or so from the 911 line up globally are

- 993 GT2 - 180-190 odd made, I think 2 came to the country but one left pretty much straight away for Japan I heard but don't know.  

- 997 Sport Classic - 250 cars

- 993 Turbo S - <350 cars

- 997 Speedster - 356 cars

- 997 GT2 RS - 500 cars

-997 GT3 RS 4.0 - 600 cars

- 996 GT3 RS - 680 odd cars

All of the above have under 700 made (the 6/RS has the most at about 680 followed by the 4.0 with 600), lowest from memory is the sport classic with 250 

991 911 R - 991 cars 

- 993 RS - circa 1100-1200

- 997 GT2  <1250 cars

- 996 GT2 < 1300 cars

- 996 Turbo S - circa 1500 - 600 coupes < 600 manuals

- 997 GT3 RS' circa 2600 cars across .1 and .2 production

The older stuff, early 911s, 356s etc seem to hold value as they obviously aren't making any more of them, but any 356 before 1958 can now be used for things like the Mille Miglia (last eligible year is '57) so the market for some of the older cars becomes more open globally.

[michel]

Anyone who owned or still owns a 1973 RHD targa S .. 

[Pedro]

There was one 3L 74 Carrera delivered in Australia, and it recently sold at Duttons. Rumoured ask 2.5m. Probably beat gold. 

 

[OZ930]

So does rarely of colour, interior colour and options then complicate the issue ?

[smit2100]

On 4/28/2018 at 2:45 AM, smit2100 said:

 Sound response above.  @ lucky phil, NEither and i am going to give you a headache.   How about you step it down a notch and do a hedge.  Take that coin and buy a 993 turbo and you will only be shit scared  half as much  to drive it compared to the 964 turbo, but   probably a better drive anyway.   With the 300 to 350k left over, dump it ALL in CSL Shares when the market has a pull back.  Put those up as security for a margin loan of 80% x 350k = 280k. at circa 5% on the same day  and dump that into CSL as well.   Then sit back for two years and enjoy the rides.   993 may go up but who gives a toss if it doesn't.  CSL odds of a decent return is pretty damn high and have an awesome track record of return on deployed capital and hence share price  that far exceeds property gains if you look at its share price over any journey since they went non government owned.   220 bucks a share in 18 months time ( assuming no share splits)  aint as silly as it sounds. What are the odds of that   964 going  for 800k plus in  two years time? MARGIN LOAN INTEREST is tax deductible and just  the ÇSL dividends tax effected  will probably beat your fixed interest of  circa  1.8% after you lodge a   tax return.  For those saying what about paying any  capital gains, thats a good thing isnt it. Plus is a pristine 964 turbo a incrementally better drive than a well maintained 993 turbo.

Fixed interest? Why let the bank profit on your cash.   May as well own the  bank and the  tax effected dividend far exceeds the fix interest after tax return ASSUMING  the share price  holds its own by circa 200% plus.

My nostradamus prediction is if  you did the above and sold out of everything in two years time, you could get a free carry on an imported 930 turbo or at least  996 turbo if you let symsy do the tyre kicking on your behalf.  

In terms of memoralising  and coming back to this post in two years time, CSL shares   today are at $170 so if you spent 600k that's 3500 shares  Your return on fixed interest will be less than 30k after tax for two years. (A free carry of 1.5 to 2 bargain  boxsters)

Multiply 3500 x csl share price in  2  years time  which you can offload in under a day or within 5 minutes if not too greedy plus two years of csl dividends, less  the loss on sale of the 993 turbo  at a  300k purchase price with stamps - 20K  margin loan interest  - 10k for keeping the 993 on the road (4000 kms of driving) and how that stacks up against the  30k fixed interest return vs   How that stacks up against  the  sale price for  a 12500km (100kms a month)  964turbo that will take you how long to dispose of - 650k - stamp duty on 650k  - 10k running costs.

 

 

 

Just checking in.  4 weeks in and if you pumped the 600k into csl per call above reckon your up  pre capital gains a clean 50k net of borrowing if you bailed today.  Nearly a boxster  each for your Mrs  and daughter after capital gains tax.  Merc and Mazda issues sorted. 

[symsy]

If you bought a 964 turbo and drove it , you would have burnt a shit load of fuel and have a big smile and no licence and loss no doubt due to the excessive Uber costs

 

[smit2100]

On 5/22/2018 at 7:55 PM, smit2100 said:

Just checking in.  4 weeks in and if you pumped the 600k into csl per call above reckon your up  pre capital gains a clean 50k net of borrowing if you bailed today.  Nearly a boxster  each for your Mrs  and daughter after capital gains tax.  Merc and Mazda issues sorted. 

Another 4 weeks in and it's another boxster if you kept those csl shares (even allows for cap gains tax.   Maybe at the end of next month its a free carry of an aircooled on paper. 

[smit2100]

On 27/04/2018 at 18:54, Lucky Phil said:

Ok so here is a beautiful 964 Turbo (3.6) for sale at Duttons (see link).  10000 KLMs

Lets say I happen to have $649,990 handy at the moment from the sale of a house.  What would be the vote on investing the money in the car vs invest in a fixed term deposit account (share market off limits for the moment).  Interest on the money in a fixed term would be 2.5% (at best) for the next 2 years.  I could drive the car occasionally to Porsche events etc but would most likely store it and flip it in 2 years.  Having regard to insurance and registration etc. what would be the consensus?  I know you guys are P Car crazy but I am interested if the car is the better investment, so use your brains and not your heart, so as I can have a fair dinkum result.

Vote either CAR or FIXED TERM.  

https://www.carsales.com.au/dealer/details/Porsche-911-1993/OAG-AD-15888570/?Cr=0

So from a look  back at the revision mirror, is this a wovr, brought back to life  uk imported no service book example or just  reflective of what a value buyer with a slight interest in polishing would of tapped out at  price wise (circa 250k) even 2 years ago)https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/porsche/911/turbo-badge/964-series

[TwoHeadsTas]

On 22/06/2018 at 01:14, smit2100 said:

Another 4 weeks in and it's another boxster if you kept those csl shares (even allows for cap gains tax.   Maybe at the end of next month its a free carry of an aircooled on paper. 

Also looking back at this, CSL shares $320 today, probably low 200s then........  Really pisses me of I sold some way back when at $120 😞  But still did pretty well out of them at that....

[smit2100]

3 hours ago, TwoHeadsTas said:

Also looking back at this, CSL shares $320 today, probably low 200s then........  Really pisses me of I sold some way back when at $120 😞  But still did pretty well out of them at that....

Nah  a bit  off at low 200.  Scroll up.  I put a stake in the ground  with a post at dumping the 650k ( even borrowing some at circa 4% and not using all the cash) into csl at $170( safer than houses and a better return than a bank deposit or a  garage queen  964)    I thought circa  220 was where  csl would be at in 18 months.( bad call and a  bit off 22 months down the road))  Reckon on my calcs, if Phil pulled the trigger  and cashed  in today on the profit ( leave the original sum invested),   that would nearly get him into  that 964 turbo and a 991 gt3 as complete free kicks. But may need to tap into some capital  for a roofline realignment and a 4 post hoist as pretty sure  Phil was  lusting over just one at the time as opposed to the ideal of both.    Bloody hindsight and woulda shoulda for some. Plus as free kicks pretty sure Phil wouldn't just polish them either.

[flamingporsche]

On 28/04/2018 at 04:45, smit2100 said:

 Sound response above.  @ lucky phil, NEither and i am going to give you a headache.   How about you step it down a notch and do a hedge.  Take that coin and buy a 993 turbo and you will only be shit scared  half as much  to drive it compared to the 964 turbo, but   probably a better drive anyway.   With the 300 to 350k left over, dump it ALL in CSL Shares when the market has a pull back.  Put those up as security for a margin loan of 80% x 350k = 280k. at circa 5% on the same day  and dump that into CSL as well.   Then sit back for two years and enjoy the rides.   993 may go up but who gives a toss if it doesn't.  CSL odds of a decent return is pretty damn high and have an awesome track record of return on deployed capital and hence share price  that far exceeds property gains if you look at its share price over any journey since they went non government owned.   220 bucks a share in 18 months time ( assuming no share splits)  aint as silly as it sounds. What are the odds of that   964 going  for 800k plus in  two years time? MARGIN LOAN INTEREST is tax deductible and just  the ÇSL dividends tax effected  will probably beat your fixed interest of  circa  1.8% after you lodge a   tax return.  For those saying what about paying any  capital gains, thats a good thing isnt it. Plus is a pristine 964 turbo a incrementally better drive than a well maintained 993 turbo.

Fixed interest? Why let the bank profit on your cash.   May as well own the  bank and the  tax effected dividend far exceeds the fix interest after tax return ASSUMING  the share price  holds its own by circa 200% plus.

My nostradamus prediction is if  you did the above and sold out of everything in two years time, you could get a free carry on an imported 930 turbo or at least  996 turbo if you let symsy do the tyre kicking on your behalf.  

In terms of memoralising  and coming back to this post in two years time, CSL shares   today are at $170 so if you spent 600k that's 3500 shares  Your return on fixed interest will be less than 30k after tax for two years. (A free carry of 1.5 to 2 bargain  boxsters)

Multiply 3500 x csl share price in  2  years time  which you can offload in under a day or within 5 minutes if not too greedy plus two years of csl dividends, less  the loss on sale of the 993 turbo  at a  300k purchase price with stamps - 20K  margin loan interest  - 10k for keeping the 993 on the road (4000 kms of driving) and how that stacks up against the  30k fixed interest return vs   How that stacks up against  the  sale price for  a 12500km (100kms a month)  964turbo that will take you how long to dispose of - 650k - stamp duty on 650k  - 10k running costs.

 

 

 

Let's revisit...

 

3500 CSL shares ($280k) now worth $936k (235% profit, excl dividends)

993Turbo was $300k, now $500k ish (67% profit excl holding costs)

What's a 964 Turbo 3.6 worth nowadays?

Moral of the story... @smit2100's investment advice ain't too shabby 😎

[twro]

Don't want to be that guy, but $300k in Bitcoin (USD$9,000 in April 2018) would now be worth $1.3m, a 440%+ return

And the same pants-on-fire thrill as driving a 964 Turbo up a hilly stretch, maybe more!

Personally, I didn't buy CSL, a Turbo, or Bitcoin. This makes me completely impartial (and an idiot)

[MFX]

1 hour ago, flamingporsche said:

Let's revisit...

 

3500 CSL shares ($280k) now worth $936k (235% profit, excl dividends)

993Turbo was $300k, now $500k ish (67% profit excl holding costs)

What's a 964 Turbo 3.6 worth nowadays?

Moral of the story... @smit2100's investment advice ain't too shabby 😎

Not sure where you got the $280k figure from? In @smit2100 quote he stated the price at the time was $170 per share so 3500 shares = $595k (or $600k as he stated I assume with some rounding off). That makes it around 55% profit?

[mc968cs]

I bought a CSL and drove it for three years and sold it again recently at a 71.8% profit - does that count. ! Funny old world.
 

I must have thought @smit2100 meant the car! 

[Joz]

20/20 hindsight is wonderful 🤷‍♂️

[Coastr]

9 hours ago, twro said:

Don't want to be that guy, but $300k in Bitcoin (USD$9,000 in April 2018) would now be worth $1.3m, a 440%+ return

And the same pants-on-fire thrill as driving a 964 Turbo up a hilly stretch, maybe more!

Personally, I didn't buy CSL, a Turbo, or Bitcoin. This makes me completely impartial (and an idiot)

Hodling the btc up and down through that would have taken some serious cojones.  Most of us would have cashed out somewhere and grabbed a Porsche.  I have a friend who cashed out a $70k crypto profit… on a Kia minivan.  Hard to hold on to a volatile asset when life’s goodies await.  Big up to those who can.

[LeeM]

2 minutes ago, Coastr said:

I have a friend who cashed out a $70k crypto profit… on a Kia minivan.  Hard to hold on to a volatile asset when life’s goodies await.  Big up to those who can.

A Kia is one of life's goodies? 🤔

Oh well, as long as he's happy I s'pose 

[Coastr]

Like a pig in shit - bought something speculative for nothing, it went up big,  he cashed out and got a shiny new minivan.  He always had crap cars before that. He loves it because the kids love it.  He gave me the tip too but I was too busy

[smit2100]

On 18/02/2022 at 20:03, Joz said:

20/20 hindsight is wonderful 🤷‍♂️

Very offensive post that one.  A typical 40 character twitter style cheap pot shot. Did you actually read my post.     20/20 forward looking hindsight is indeed wonderful.  You need to go back to the future and note the date of my post,  You sure in hindsight I didn't coincidently  have around circa 3500 CSL shares  tied up a under a margin loan and paying circa 5% at the time of posting and that was all just coincidently dreamed up and I pulled those numbers out of my backside with no 20/20 forward looking vision and posted for the sake of it.  Circa 50% + return in 3.8 years I thought is not too shabby.  Plenty of hindsight from my side put on the table in written form, just bugger all access to cash to execute half of the hedge. 

PS go look at the share price around just before 2 years was up on my post and preCOVID.  CSL was at a all time high of around $340. (from $170 in my hindsight post  my maths says thats double up to then right)

The problem is I got the hindsight mix right just COVID, f'd me over.  Since COVID, CSL died in the arse and done nothing  but  dropped to  circa 270-290 range for 2 years trading sidewards through COVID  with the algo's chiming in capping mini runs.  Today CSL is sitting at circa 270 .  You understand why COVID f'd me over holding CSL shares right.  Who can give blood under COVID lockdown's and with no blood donors, no plasma 9 to 12 months down the track  and huge hit to CSL's number one  revenue stream.    Absolute no hindsight on that 2 years out I totally agree with. 

 

What I got wrong was my 993 turbo hedge would of made just as much money.  300k and at that time for a 993 and thats a peach (997GT2 with a half cage for 299k around the same time to be had at Barbegello's in Perth at the Ferrari dealer that was a trade in just as a  hindsight reference).   Me and 1q2w3e4r around covid time were thinking 993's down to sub 2's and put that in writing.   I suppose lack of hindsight on that and got that way way wrong.   eg starting 5+ and perhaps 5++ and some for a  peach right.  

@MFX is on the ball with his maths. Top of the class with 55% if taking todays price.    However just shy of two years from my post (a few months prior) , CSL shares hit an all time high of circa 340. If you cashed out at that peak  pre COVID,  circa 90 to 100%.

@MC968CS, speaking of CSL (Benzs'), waiting for some takeaway out the front of a local Japanese place last week .  Spoke to this young guy, sitting outside with one of the regulars (same table,same time, same order, same poison in a mug nearly daily) and asked  him what's he currently doing - studying / working ( at least less than half my age I thought).  Said he just graduated and returned from Canada after studying their  for 6 years (2 years high school and 4 years uni)   Got to the talking about cars and driving in the snow in Canada.  Ask him what he drove whilst at uni  (thinking his on a tight budget, dudes in trackies, t shirt and slouching in the chair ( didn't realise he was 6ft4 and not your average chinese height)  He responded with  AMG GT S.  WTF, straight out of high school  and into that that tied him over at uni for 4 years .   He then said one of his fellow mates  from same area as him back home had a brand new Lambo parked up in the uni underground car park.  Note much studying was done after midnight he reckons and a tank of gas didn't go very far each week. 

On 18/02/2022 at 15:07, mc968cs said:

I bought a CSL and drove it for three years and sold it again recently at a 71.8% profit - does that count. ! Funny old world.
 

I must have thought @smit2100 meant the car! 

If you had 3500 X CSL's and made 71.8% per car after three years,  surely thats better margins that what mother ship back in Stutgart make when they invoice the distributor