Coronavirus - what do you think?

[Raven]

818 cases in NSW today ,,Thats double since Sunday and over 600 cases in 9 days ..

[Gavn]

47 minutes ago, Raven said:

818 cases in NSW today ,,Thats double since Sunday and over 600 cases in 9 days ..

Curve is vertical.  Confirmed cases today are from contacts 4+ days ago.  It's just getting warmed up...

[Raven]

8 minutes ago, Gavin (CliffToCoast) said:

Curve is vertical.  Confirmed cases today are from contacts 4+ days ago.  It's just getting warmed up...

Been told by a number of NSW police members I know ,guys I served with in the Army and later joined the cops  ,,,they are gearing up for a lock down of Sydney ..
All depends on the number of cases by the week end .
If it gets over 1500 expect the state and Fed government to act .
Could just be a localised lock down of Area with the most cases or all of Sydney and the surrounding metro area ...
Other Countries took to long to act and our Government is award that fast action on lock down is the greatest benefit to us all at the moment and getting this thing under control ..

[Gavn]

29 minutes ago, Raven said:

Been told by a number of NSW police members I know ,guys I served with in the Army and later joined the cops  ,,,they are gearing up for a lock down of Sydney ..
All depends on the number of cases by the week end .
If it gets over 1500 expect the state and Fed government to act .
Could just be a localised lock down of Area with the most cases or all of Sydney and the surrounding metro area ...
Other Countries took to long to act and our Government is award that fast action on lock down is the greatest benefit to us all at the moment and getting this thing under control ..

There is no doubt a lock down will come.  It has come in every city around the world that is in front of us with similar policy responses - some people seem to think we will be different.  Our policy responses to this point have been reactive (look at the mindset of locking down once it gets over 1500....there is 100% it will get over 1500 so why not lock down early, means less time locked down).  Anyway that's the govt framework we have so that's how it will roll - incremental tightening at pre-defined points chasing that ever steeper curve up on a 1.5 week lag.  Not only are our infections increasing, they are increasing at an increasing rate - our path is set.  My previous life was in maths & in particular non linear applied fields - this is a textbook case of exponential growth, which our minds are just not geared to....in an evolutionary sense we've only needed linear analysis so that's how our minds work.  With a reproductive/spread rate of 3 (research has it between 2.3 to 6 depending on the paper but final figures will be close to 3) 1 person will give it to 3 others.  10 iterations of this & you have 3^10 or 59000 cases. As a relative reference point the flu will pass to 13 and a bit people after 10 iterations.  Just for giggles, if we get to 15 iterations before we seriously isolate each case will generate 14 348 907 cases....which is kind of a 'let it run' course and of course you have crossovers and deaths so the real rate lowers significantly down from that 14mil.

Think about the past two weeks & consider how many of those '1 infected persons' have been cruising through the community due to mixed messaging from the govt and 'no dramas' attitudes (given we are not community testing we don't know how many, but each one will have a potential multiple of 59000 until we get serious).  We are going to get smashed.  I laugh at the idea we haven't had community transmissions - how would we know given you can't get testing unless you cross a 'confirmed case' (due to lack of testing kits).  Batten down if you haven't yet & look to other locked down cities for a preview.  Sad.  Rant over  

My day job now is in the fb & we know what's coming...we are going to get smashed as well given the ambos won't cope (can barely cover a normal flue season) & we are next on the list to go around & do whatever needs to be done - won't be pretty.

[clutch-monkey]

Due to incubation time etc we won’t see the curve flattening from social distancing etc until the next week or so. So there may be a flattening out after the next 7 days 

[Gavn]

2 minutes ago, clutch-monkey said:

Due to incubation time etc we won’t see the curve flattening from social distancing etc until the next week or so. So there may be a flattening out after the next 7 days 

Agree - not sure how many people are social distancing seriously yet....shops still open, people still cruising around, hairdressers, beauticians etc still operating.  Hopefully we're pulling that '3' rate down a little but as you say, the impact of that 'down from 3'  won't hit for 7 days yet and until that spread rate gets below 1.5 we are in the shit.  The time to attack this was about 10 days ago when the cases were much smaller...but at that point it doesn't look like much of a problem

 

[Niko]

38 minutes ago, Raven said:

Been told by a number of NSW police members I know ,guys I served with in the Army and later joined the cops  ,,,they are gearing up for a lock down of Sydney ..
All depends on the number of cases by the week end .
If it gets over 1500 expect the state and Fed government to act .
Could just be a localised lock down of Area with the most cases or all of Sydney and the surrounding metro area ...
Other Countries took to long to act and our Government is award that fast action on lock down is the greatest benefit to us all at the moment and getting this thing under control ..

Quicker the better, let's bite the bullet, and just do it.    I do have to disclose an interest though....We are both Boomers......

[Gavn]

9 minutes ago, Niko said:

Quicker the better, let's bite the bullet, and just do it.    I do have to disclose an interest though....We are both Boomers......

Agree - the sooner you strangle this, the better off you are in the long run.  Every day we delay will cost us multiples of days in duration.  I like the nz response.

[Raven]

27 minutes ago, Gavin (CliffToCoast) said:

Agree - the sooner you strangle this, the better off you are in the long run.  Every day we delay will cost us multiples of days in duration.  I like the nz response.

Exactly its easier to contain and cope with the 800 cases recorded today ,,why wait for more people to be infected it has jumped 200% in 9 days and not slowing down ,,,,if it doubles in the next 4 days to 1600 cases action needs to be taken ,,,Other governments around the world have not doubt told ours that containment of cases and lock down is the only way to slow it down ..

If they dont our medical system will crumble under the strain .

And I would suspect No government or political party wants to be the one that let this get out of control ,,the  politicians will cover their asses ten fold ,it less damaging to them and their agendas if they lock Sydney down 

[Coastr]

9 days ago New York had 523 cases.  Yesterday they added 5,400 new cases to go over 20k now.  They shut it down too late. It’s out of control growth rate.  Still millions of people fine but I can’t see it stopping there now.

No point in waiting IMO to shut cities down . Maybe Sydney and Melbourne will fare better, maybe not.  We shut down 18 days ago and are at 2221 cases.  That’s way better than NY.

Im further shut down with instructions to stay home until further notice. They roped off the kids playgrounds.   I think it is working to some extent.

[Raven]

The governments of both cities will have a figure ,once that figure is reached ,you will get some form of lock down either the entire city or the districts or suburbs with the highest infection rate ...

Problem is stopping the average Aussie from bending the rules ,,,The vast majority who are scared will do what is asked ,,but there will be certain stereo types and elements of society that will think they know better or this is all horse shit ,,I am going to do what I want types ..

[firstone]

Viral videos of medical staff all over the world saying, "please stay home". "We stayed at work for you, please stay at home".

 

[deano]

each day it gets closer to your circle.

My wife works in a regional community hospital outpost in allied health.

At 12 today they were told the site is shutting, tomorrow you are to go to XYZ, closer to the main hospital 

To save rescources was the reason, but they are going to be given new roles.

we are gearing up for overflow and triaging. 

The fan is going to get very dirty, very quick.

[sleazius]

The latest advice I've been given (today) is 18 months of lockdown. Lockdown till roughly July, then we get to reopen for 2 months, then lockdown again for a further 3 months, then reopen for two months. Ad nauseum until a vaccine is available.

The alternative is 130000 deaths in the over 70s, and we reach herd immunity after 3-4 months.

Neither option appealing if you ask me.

[clutch-monkey]

21 minutes ago, deano said:

each day it gets closer to your circle.

My wife works in a regional community hospital outpost in allied health.

At 12 today they were told the site is shutting, tomorrow you are to go to XYZ, closer to the main hospital 

To save rescources was the reason, but they are going to be given new roles.

we are gearing up for overflow and triaging. 

The fan is going to get very dirty, very quick.

in the UK they are already using pulse oximeters and ventilators from veterinary clinics in hospitals because they don't have enough.

this morning an email was sent by the health minister to start taking inventory of veterinary staff and supplies. i suspect we're about to be folded into the hospital system if shit goes south.

[Gavn]

22 minutes ago, sleazius said:

The latest advice I've been given (today) is 18 months of lockdown. Lockdown till roughly July, then we get to reopen for 2 months, then lockdown again for a further 3 months, then reopen for two months. Ad nauseum until a vaccine is available.

The alternative is 130000 deaths in the over 70s, and we reach herd immunity after 3-4 months.

Neither option appealing if you ask me.

That's brutal.  I was thinking christmas or shortly after as worst case.  18 months will put is in a whole new world/society.  

[clutch-monkey]

as per a previous post of mine in this thread the long time frame and the lockdown/relaxation of lock down is to try and get everyone through the disease in batches until we have some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. hence the long time frame.

vaccine is years away.*

 

*a safe vaccine is, could probably rush one out without full testing

[Gavn]

5 minutes ago, clutch-monkey said:

as per a previous post of mine in this thread the long time frame and the lockdown/relaxation of lock down is to try and get everyone through the disease in batches until we have some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. hence the long time frame.

vaccine is years away.*

 

*a safe vaccine is, could probably rush one out without full testing

Makes sense (ish).  That's an alternative approach to the 'lockdown to 0' approach.  Will be hard to run/plan business in an on/off world...

[clutch-monkey]

17 minutes ago, Gavin (CliffToCoast) said:

Makes sense (ish).  That's an alternative approach to the 'lockdown to 0' approach.  Will be hard to run/plan business in an on/off world...

i think it will become easier once panic dies off and people adapt to what is safe and what isn't. not ideal, but people will still want to get coffee etc.. so i think some places will find their feet again, but with new arrangements and protocols

[LeeM]

5 hours ago, clutch-monkey said:

i think it will become easier once panic dies off and people adapt to what is safe and what isn't. not ideal, but people will still want to get coffee etc.. so i think some places will find their feet again, but with new arrangements and protocols

 Not a personal attack in any way here, but Become easier? How? 

 There is already mass panic that has no signs of abating when I couldn't even buy milk at at Coles, or some dust masks from Bunnings, rife unemployment and a dire future ahead for millions just in Australia, so if they're now saying 18 months, it sadly won't be just the virus that takes lives.

  I'd been very blase' about all of this (in my stupidity as it seems now), and it's 2.30am and I can't sleep thinking about all of this shit, especially when I have an anxious missus who is very concerned about her mum she might not be able to see, and her clients she probably won't be able to work with. That, my job, my house, my car, enough money to just live on..everything! I struggled mentally when I lost my job late last year because I pride myself on being able to work and earn, and we've lost nearly all of our savings 3 years ago that we havent been able to recover from, so if those predictions are our future for a year or so, well...what's the fucking point? 

[wilson59]

5 hours ago, LeeM said:

 Not a personal attack in any way here, but Become easier? How? 

 There is already mass panic that has no signs of abating when I couldn't even buy milk at at Coles, or some dust masks from Bunnings, rife unemployment and a dire future ahead for millions just in Australia, so if they're now saying 18 months, it sadly won't be just the virus that takes lives.

  I'd been very blase' about all of this (in my stupidity as it seems now), and it's 2.30am and I can't sleep thinking about all of this shit, especially when I have an anxious missus who is very concerned about her mum she might not be able to see, and her clients she probably won't be able to work with. That, my job, my house, my car, enough money to just live on..everything! I struggled mentally when I lost my job late last year because I pride myself on being able to work and earn, and we've lost nearly all of our savings 3 years ago that we havent been able to recover from, so if those predictions are our future for a year or so, well...what's the fucking point? 

Don't listen to the internet experts is your best approach . Try having kids who can't be kids and you have to navigate that on top of everything else its not easy .

Most of us are in the same boat . In most of your post you always mention these economic climate etc etc so it is obvious you think about this a lot .

Take a break from forums it will be better for your mental health surround yourself with positive thinking people . Call me anytime I can see light at the end of this dim tunnel .

[WOKA]

I know of a case (second hand but direct from the source) here in Brisbane, where two elderly people who arrived on a cruise a ship from Honolulu (both 69) both diagnosed with CV were refused ventilation / ICU care.  The husband with more serious symptoms was taken to palliative care and told to basically get well or die.  He pulled through.  Word is that they won't life support those over 60.  No resources to combat the imminent outbreak.  Its here and its is so real.

Lock it down 

Stay home

Stay safe

 

A good article here https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[firstone]

Medical staff are not leaving people to die. They are educated to determine who needs the resources. 

 

 

 

[clutch-monkey]

5 hours ago, LeeM said:

 Not a personal attack in any way here, but Become easier? How? 

 There is already mass panic that has no signs of abating when I couldn't even buy milk at at Coles, or some dust masks from Bunnings, rife unemployment and a dire future ahead for millions just in Australia, so if they're now saying 18 months, it sadly won't be just the virus that takes lives.

  I'd been very blase' about all of this (in my stupidity as it seems now), and it's 2.30am and I can't sleep thinking about all of this shit, especially when I have an anxious missus who is very concerned about her mum she might not be able to see, and her clients she probably won't be able to work with. That, my job, my house, my car, enough money to just live on..everything! I struggled mentally when I lost my job late last year because I pride myself on being able to work and earn, and we've lost nearly all of our savings 3 years ago that we havent been able to recover from, so if those predictions are our future for a year or so, well...what's the fucking point? 

I still have to see clients, I don’t have a choice.

ive got five pages of new protocol to go apply, but it’s starting to become easier as clients get into the routine because stuff still needs to be done.

no one is staying at home forever, so things will start to relax once this sort of protocol becomes widespread. 

Things are locked down tightly now because of idiots, but because businesses are now demanding spacing, no hand contact, emphasis on curb side drop off or pick up of goods, split teams working in office, work from home etc it will get into people’s head as routine (basically stuff that should be standard in any normal flu season too actually), business will adapt to the altered model and regain some semblance of normality.

it won’t be as good as before, but this is currently the initial shock, the disease spread is going to worsen but people are going to begin adapting.

also the 18 months is not one constant lock down but a series, so there is reprieve in there.

[Uncle]

When I was in my mid 20’s I developed a strong interest in virology and to a lesser extent epidemiology. I read anything I could get my hands on for a few years for my own interests. Whilst I’m not even basically qualified in any way shape or form you could see this coming from miles and miles away. Our greatest asset in the past has been our remoteness from other countries. If something broke out on a boat on the way here there was a good chance everyone would be dead before they arrived. Simple.

As we all know we dropped the ball on our speed to react so the distance ball was not only dropped but lost. So far as I can see our leadership has been a deer caught in the headlights. Not wanting to make an unpopular choice with the people and not wanting to upset the Frank Lowy’s of the nation. Even a Dunning-Kruger epidemiologist such as myself can what needs to happen but simply isn’t happening.