Coronavirus - what do you think?

[Lucky Phil]

6 hours ago, Jason A said:

It seems that my wife is safe, but I am buggered

[DJM]

Why is it so difficult to determine current net cases.  It never gets mentioned in any media yet to me that’s the important number.  This article says 1346 cases of which 16 died, 1262 recovered.  So 1346 - 16 - 1262 means just 64 current cases in all of Vic.  That’s about 0.001% of the population.

https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6682379/coronavirus-in-victoria-confirmed-cases-and-deaths-from-covid-19/

and 24 of them are in hospital so that leaves just 40 infected people in the community......🤔

If you said I get $1M if I find one of the 40 infected, I don’t think I’d be able to.  And the chances of me bumping into 1 of 40 in Woolworths........almost nil,

It’s a great outcome and maybe they deliberately hold back this number so people don’t get complacent.  But it’s been fascinating to see them hold firm on restrictions with extremely low numbers while elsewhere hundreds of deaths a day is good news and the trigger to reopen.  Happy to play the long game and squash it once and for all but gee it seems extremely conservative now.
 

[sleazius]

It is conservative because of how infectious the disease is. Exponents are scary when you’re talking about respiratory diseases that kill people. Especially those that take their time about it like this one. The average being 19 days till death, that’s a bloody long time as far as a hospital bed is concerned, and an eternity in the ICU (by our heath system standards).

40 cases can become 40000 in short order, which is why the lock downs are still active and will probably remain so in one form or another till September.

[luzzo]

6 minutes ago, sleazius said:

40 cases can become 40000 in short order, which is why the lock downs are still active

This is where I understand major pandemic centres like Italy went wrong. 

[Coastr]

It’s clear there is no playbook and politicians are making it up as they go along.  The media went crazy at first revelling in the eyeballs and ratings they were getting, but now the ad revenue is looking shaky.  Politicians seemed to love the attention and being seen as making bold decisions but now they realise they are going to be held responsible for every case above zero if they change course. So they’re trying to pin the responsibility onto the medical experts.  A real time game of success having a thousand fathers while failure being an orphan.  Everything was comparatively easy to shut down.  Opening it back up again requires the explanation that people are going to be affected, that spread and deaths are inevitable.  We are just not used to a world where infectious diseases are increasing rather than decreasing, like they have been for the last 60 or 70 years.

Eventually the world will have to learn to live with this virus.  Those old enough to remember the appearance of HIV probably don’t think about it all that often anymore, but over 1m per year still contract it, and 37m or so people are living with it.   It’s a totally different category of virus in terms of transmission but it’s a genie that will never go back in the bottle.  Covid19 is the same - eradication will never happen. 

[OZ930]

8 hours ago, DJM said:

Why is it so difficult to determine current net cases.  It never gets mentioned in any media yet to me that’s the important number.  This article says 1346 cases of which 16 died, 1262 recovered.  So 1346 - 16 - 1262 means just 64 current cases in all of Vic.  That’s about 0.001% of the population.

https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6682379/coronavirus-in-victoria-confirmed-cases-and-deaths-from-covid-19/

and 24 of them are in hospital so that leaves just 40 infected people in the community......🤔

If you said I get $1M if I find one of the 40 infected, I don’t think I’d be able to.  And the chances of me bumping into 1 of 40 in Woolworths........almost nil,

It’s a great outcome and maybe they deliberately hold back this number so people don’t get complacent.  But it’s been fascinating to see them hold firm on restrictions with extremely low numbers while elsewhere hundreds of deaths a day is good news and the trigger to reopen.  Happy to play the long game and squash it once and for all but gee it seems extremely conservative now.
 

Have you watched Paul Murray on SKY ?

[NevB]

8 hours ago, DJM said:

Why is it so difficult to determine current net cases.  

https://www.covid19data.com.au/recoveries

[Niko]

16 hours ago, Jason A said:

Uh Oh.....

[OZ930]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Uh Oh.....

Maybe, if we are lucky, Alzheimers will kick in and we’ll forget....then we will be safe 👍 

[DJM]

6 hours ago, sleazius said:

It is conservative because of how infectious the disease is. Exponents are scary when you’re talking about respiratory diseases that kill people. Especially those that take their time about it like this one. The average being 19 days till death, that’s a bloody long time as far as a hospital bed is concerned, and an eternity in the ICU (by our heath system standards).

40 cases can become 40000 in short order, which is why the lock downs are still active and will probably remain so in one form or another till September.

I get that, of course.  But on the spectrum from bullish to conservative we seem to be waaaaay out on the conservative end of the scale.  Obviously this outcome is linked to the good iso behaviour of the majority and unwinding the restrictions will inevitably lead to cases building again.  But I’m just trying to figure out what number of net cases is low enough for them to start to relax restrictions (with appropriate testing and monitoring of new cases).  Why September, what’s the number then?  Zero?  Or do they want zero for a period of time before acting?   I’m happy to have a conservative approach, but it would be handy to see their flowchart.......

other countries are starting to open up with more new cases per day than we have experienced in total.  That seems pretty reckless but where is the logical point to act.

23 minutes ago, NevB said:

https://www.covid19data.com.au/recoveries

Yep one chart if you go hunting.  and the graph is difficult to read.  
Never seen or heard net cases quoted in the media.  Always total cases despite the fact that the vast majority have recovered.

 

55 minutes ago, OZ930 said:

Have you watched Paul Murray on SKY ?

Nope.  What’s he say?

[OZ930]

11 minutes ago, DJM said:

Nope.  What’s he say?

He generally gives a break down of actual numbers.  Total cases, total cases at present and total recoveries both nationally and by state.

[DJM]

7 minutes ago, OZ930 said:

He generally gives a break down of actual numbers.  Total cases, total cases at present and total recoveries both nationally and by state.

Smart man 😂

[sleazius]

1 hour ago, DJM said:

I get that, of course.  But on the spectrum from bullish to conservative we seem to be waaaaay out on the conservative end of the scale.  Obviously this outcome is linked to the good iso behaviour of the majority and unwinding the restrictions will inevitably lead to cases building again.  But I’m just trying to figure out what number of net cases is low enough for them to start to relax restrictions (with appropriate testing and monitoring of new cases).  Why September, what’s the number then?  Zero?  Or do they want zero for a period of time before acting?   I’m happy to have a conservative approach, but it would be handy to see their flowchart.......

other countries are starting to open up with more new cases per day than we have experienced in total.  That seems pretty reckless but where is the logical point to act.

Yep one chart if you go hunting.  and the graph is difficult to read.  
Never seen or heard net cases quoted in the media.  Always total cases despite the fact that the vast majority have recovered.

 

Nope.  What’s he say?

There was an article on news.com.au yesterday with total active numbers. It was very low. Like 40 serious cases, and 24 people left on ventilators nationally. I don't remember total active cases but it was mentioned.

I'm with you, I want things opened up as soon as possible. My business is going out the door backwards as we speak so I'm firmly in the 'open this bitch' camp. Just letting you know from a health perspective why they aren't doing it.

The September thing is just based on projections. Case studies of blood donations and sewerage are finding globally that in the best countries (like Australia) it seems 2/3 of the cases that are active are actually reported. In the bad ones, like the US it could be as much as 50x higher than their actual numbers. On the one hand that is a good thing, because it means this disease is far less deadly than we think. On the other it is a bad thing because it is far more infectious than we think.

There are also no guarantees that getting Covid-19 will make you immune to it. The 4 closest related Coronaviruses - SARS, MERS, and two others that are two of the biggest causes of the 'common cold' have no vaccine, and catching them provides only seasonal immunity. In the case of the 'common cold' viruses, mere weeks.

[deano]

So how do they detect it in sewage?

I mean, I can probably guess how they detect it, but how much traceable output do enough infected carriers have for it to be findable when mixed so much?

 

We get emailed daily reports from CHO, which includes summaries mentioned above.

Heres part of fridays:

• As of 24 April 2020, the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Victoria is 1,343, an increase of 6 since yesterday.
• 27 people are in hospital, including 11 people in intensive care. 16 people have died.
• 135 cases have an unknown source of infection, unchanged since yesterday and 1,254 people have recovered. To date, more than 96,000 Victorians have been tested.
• Of the total 1,343 cases, there have been 1,062 in metropolitan Melbourne and 243 in regional Victoria. A number of cases remain under investigation.
• There have been 163 confirmed cases in healthcare workers, unchanged since yesterday, across at least 7 hospitals and 1 radiology clinic.
• A total of 46 cases are reported in people in mandatory hotel quarantine which is an increase of 1 since yesterday.
• The total number of cases in Australia is currently 6,667.

[DJM]

1 hour ago, deano said:

So how do they detect it in sewage?

I mean, I can probably guess how they detect it, but how much traceable output do enough infected carriers have for it to be findable when mixed so much?

 

We get emailed daily reports from CHO, which includes summaries mentioned above.

Heres part of fridays:

• As of 24 April 2020, the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Victoria is 1,343, an increase of 6 since yesterday.
• 27 people are in hospital, including 11 people in intensive care. 16 people have died.
• 135 cases have an unknown source of infection, unchanged since yesterday and 1,254 people have recovered. To date, more than 96,000 Victorians have been tested.
• Of the total 1,343 cases, there have been 1,062 in metropolitan Melbourne and 243 in regional Victoria. A number of cases remain under investigation.
• There have been 163 confirmed cases in healthcare workers, unchanged since yesterday, across at least 7 hospitals and 1 radiology clinic.
• A total of 46 cases are reported in people in mandatory hotel quarantine which is an increase of 1 since yesterday.
• The total number of cases in Australia is currently 6,667.

This is what frustrates me.  I don't believe this statement reflects the facts.  The are not currently 6,667 cases.  That's the total to date of which the majority have recovered.  Yet again that data does not provide sufficient info to work out the active cases.  I can only assume the Gov't does not want that under people's noses for fear they will de-restrict themselves.

The total number of cases in Australia is currently 6,667.

[clutch-monkey]

14 hours ago, DJM said:

Why is it so difficult to determine current net cases.  It never gets mentioned in any media yet to me that’s the important number.  This article says 1346 cases of which 16 died, 1262 recovered.  So 1346 - 16 - 1262 means just 64 current cases in all of Vic.  That’s about 0.001% of the population.

https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6682379/coronavirus-in-victoria-confirmed-cases-and-deaths-from-covid-19/

and 24 of them are in hospital so that leaves just 40 infected people in the community......🤔

If you said I get $1M if I find one of the 40 infected, I don’t think I’d be able to.  And the chances of me bumping into 1 of 40 in Woolworths........almost nil,

It’s a great outcome and maybe they deliberately hold back this number so people don’t get complacent.  But it’s been fascinating to see them hold firm on restrictions with extremely low numbers while elsewhere hundreds of deaths a day is good news and the trigger to reopen.  Happy to play the long game and squash it once and for all but gee it seems extremely conservative now.
 

if it seems conservative that means it is working..

if it seems like an over reaction that means it is working.

If it all goes to shit, then it's negligence.

there's not really a middle ground, well there is, but it's such a thin knife edge that it could swing into outbreak at the drop of a hat.
as of friday qld is releasing restrictions as we have had no new cases for a couple of days now, but interstate travel still not allowed with you dirty infected southerners of course.
i imagine other states will follow suit in the next few weeks.

[sleazius]

6 hours ago, deano said:

So how do they detect it in sewage?

I mean, I can probably guess how they detect it, but how much traceable output do enough infected carriers have for it to be findable when mixed so much?

An Australian development no less:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720322816

[deano]

^^. holy sh*t! Pretty impressive

[firstone]

Just walking about the house getting a few things done so only half heard the news.

American prisoners tested showed the majority in one prison tested positive with little or no symptoms. 

 

[OZ930]

Two weeks, then we can go for a drive......except Victoria 😃

[OZ930]

On another issue Corona related

US has withdrawn it’s carrier fleet from the South China Sea because of CV-19

All strategic bombers have been withdrawn from Guam

China is now expanding and is harassing Vietnam, Malaysia and the Phillipines

Top democratic officials in Hong Kong have been removed

[LeeM]

 Just nuke China and be done with it.

 Tired of hearing about how dodgy that country is

[clutch-monkey]

14 hours ago, LeeM said:

 Just nuke China and be done with it.

 Tired of hearing about how dodgy that country is

just let them keep eating bats and rhino penis or snake kidneys or whatever the fuck

it will be self solving, just be ready to close borders again

[JV911]

On 26/04/2020 at 10:59, deano said:

So how do they detect it in sewage?

It still amazes me that they can detect parts per billion in untreated shyte. Its' probably a similar method they use to work out what suburbs are the biggest coke, opioid and meth users.

[Raven]

14 hours ago, LeeM said:

 Just nuke China and be done with it.

 Tired of hearing about how dodgy that country is

Hi Lee I know you work in the building game as a contractor ,,do you get many Chinese on your job sites ...???

Since leaving the Army I went back to carpentry on casual basis .

We get a huge amount of Chinese labour on our buildings sites in Sydney ,,constantly causing issues such as having no tools so they take mine , not have materials so they take mine , having no clue so they just screw things up ,,,complete disregard for anyone else on the site eg rude ,arrogant , push ,and shove others make out they do not understand English and do what they want regardless of safety issues or what the site supervisors require ,,,they are a Farking menace and in my opinion  a serious problem .

The problem up until know has been when ever you raise these issues you get the race card thrown in your face and told to just let it go and take it one the chin ,,,be the better human being and show understanding ,,,,What Bull Shit ..

Got me stuffed how they even get on these jobs as I can not get a start with out all my insurances and Safety shit up to date .

It basically comes down to the all mighty dollar and they are cheap labour and saving the builder money , and increasing his profits so he turns a blind eye ,,,,hopefully after this Covid 19 drama subside attitudes may change some what ,,but I am not holding my breath ...

Every thing comes down to money