TwoHeadsTas Posted 26March, 2020 Report Share Posted 26March, 2020 57 minutes ago, npvpositive said: Who knows, Hugh? But they are private equity owned now (part of Dutton Group owned by CPE Equity) so presumably they can access a balance sheet and make the most of the current market conditions to build inventory at attractive prices. It has been reported to me by an owner who has his car on a "consignment" arrangement with another large, flashy Melbourne dealer that Duttons / CTS do own all their cars and don't flout the consignment / ownership rules, at least in Vic. Presume that would also apply to CTS, but I think does also probably reflect in lower prices they'll pay to buy outright...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npvpositive Posted 26March, 2020 Author Report Share Posted 26March, 2020 7 minutes ago, TwoHeadsTas said: It has been reported to me by an owner who has his car on a "consignment" arrangement with another large, flashy Melbourne dealer that Duttons / CTS do own all their cars and don't flout the consignment / ownership rules, at least in Vic. Presume that would also apply to CTS, but I think does also probably reflect in lower prices they'll pay to buy outright...... Nope, CTS do plenty of consignment (it's legal in NSW). I think they are normally about 1/3 consignment, 2/3 inventory though one of their salesmen told me that they have been increasing the proportion in inventory since getting access to a new balance sheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smit2100 Posted 26March, 2020 Report Share Posted 26March, 2020 1 hour ago, npvpositive said: Nope, CTS do plenty of consignment (it's legal in NSW). I think they are normally about 1/3 consignment, 2/3 inventory though one of their salesmen told me that they have been increasing the proportion in inventory since getting access to a new balance sheet. Be interesting to see how well the cash flow statement that is tied to bank balance on the balance sheet is coping with the increased inventory right now. That ratio is polar opposite to where one would perhaps prefer it to be in the current climate. Whats the consensus on cash holding cost per 100k of stock held per week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npvpositive Posted 26March, 2020 Author Report Share Posted 26March, 2020 2 hours ago, smit2100 said: Be interesting to see how well the cash flow statement that is tied to bank balance on the balance sheet is coping with the increased inventory right now. That ratio is polar opposite to where one would perhaps prefer it to be in the current climate. Whats the consensus on cash holding cost per 100k of stock held per week? Well, the good news is that the base rate is now a whopping 0.25% . . . so their debt certainly isn't costing them much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NevB Posted 26March, 2020 Report Share Posted 26March, 2020 8 hours ago, npvpositive said: Well, the good news is that the base rate is now a whopping 0.25% . . . so their debt certainly isn't costing them much Qantas borrowed $1B at 2.75% Can't be lower than that DJM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crsedge Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 Keeping an eye on Cayenne 9PA GTS and Turbo prices in my Saved Cars. Not a lot of movement as yet but as with all luxury cars it probably won’t be too far away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Ferguson Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 In December 2019 I decided to purchase an 80's 911. As we all are now arware, the climate has changed dramatically since then; so I'm not now sure of the values. Can anyone please provide me some guideance? My shopping list includes, amongst toilet paper, 3.2 Aust delivered 911 in near perfect running condition. Your years of knowledge would be greatly appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 3 hours ago, Richard Ferguson said: In December 2019 I decided to purchase an 80's 911. As we all are now arware, the climate has changed dramatically since then; so I'm not now sure of the values. Can anyone please provide me some guideance? My shopping list includes, amongst toilet paper, 3.2 Aust delivered 911 in near perfect running condition. Your years of knowledge would be greatly appreciated. We are in unknown territory. I wouldn’t be rushing though, see what the climate brings to the market. DJM and 3legs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeM Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 4 hours ago, Richard Ferguson said: My shopping list includes, amongst toilet paper, 3.2 Aust delivered 911 I just scored 36 rolls mate. I'm sure we can negotiate 👍 Can't help with the 911 though, sorry. 3legs, MFX and DJM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 Spare me a couple? I’m only a 16 hour round trip away 😂 LeeM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Tinker Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 16 hours is only one bowel movement - unless you've been out on a curry night & a six pack of VB, then it not worth the risk 🥵 DJM and Taffy 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3legs Posted 28March, 2020 Report Share Posted 28March, 2020 11 hours ago, LeeM said: I just scored 36 rolls mate. I'm sure we can negotiate 👍 Can't help with the 911 though, sorry. Oh I don't know Lee. 36 rolls for your 911 seems about right 😂😂🤣 Sorry Lee I am kidding. We need to laugh during these times😁 LeeM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamr Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 15 hours ago, Richard Ferguson said: In December 2019 I decided to purchase an 80's 911. As we all are now arware, the climate has changed dramatically since then; so I'm not now sure of the values. Can anyone please provide me some guideance? My shopping list includes, amongst toilet paper, 3.2 Aust delivered 911 in near perfect running condition. Your years of knowledge would be greatly appreciated. I agree with comments above about waiting to see what comes to market .. at this stage, I don't think prices have been affected too much but as this goes on, things will change ... how much by?? ... who knows! ... Not everyone that is thinking of selling will list at the moment so choice will be limited and you might have to settle on something that normally you wouldn't have .. I was thinking on and off of selling even before this pandemic but have now decided not to possibly list until after it's all over ... I'm lucky enough to be able to ride this through and personally, I'm just not prepared to water down it's value ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick V Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 1 hour ago, Dreamr said: .I'm lucky enough to be able to ride this through and personally, I'm just not prepared to water down it's value ... Whilst there will be a lot of financial pain, I think there are many people who will ride this out financially. At the risk of falling into the ‘This tine it is different’ trap..... this is not a normal market cycle which sees over-priced assets deflating as people loose jobs, etc. The combination of banks freezing repayments (which includes vehicle lease payments) government financial support packages (more to be released in next 24 hours, possibly including employee wage subsidies), and pending rent/landlord changes, provide a significant support & therefore may negate the need for people to be selling assets at fire-sale prices. No past economic downturn has had such support.... even the GFC, so I do think this time is different! Whilst this may not completely stop a fall in asset prices, I suggest that it will reduce the severity and provide for a much safer landing. Many of my clients are passive investors, and they will simply ride this out (many of whom have no intention of selling their toys). Certain industries, such as Tourism &/or Hospitality will be hit harder than others, and these people may need to sell assets to survive financially or reduce their exposure. But many industries will effectively be in a state of hibernation, without the need to trigger asset sales. That said, if you don’t have to sell, I wouldn’t, and if you are thinking of buying, I would wait until the lockdown is expanded, as there will be a slowing of the market, with downward pressure on prices. But, I don't think there will the total carnage & bargains everywhere, as some dooms-dayers are suggesting. My view only.......time will tell.... Stay safe everyone. dominicxu1, TwoHeadsTas, Dreamr and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleazius Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 It depends on how long this drags on. Not every car during the GFC was a firesale, but there were enough of them that anything that wasn't a firesale didn't sell - and it dragged the market down as a whole. There is no getting away from the fact that this isn't a 1 month scenario - even the government has changed their language to 6-9 months, and speak to anyone in health care where 12 months to 2 years is now being thrown around. Absolute best case we go into a total lock down for 3-4 months, the style of which they've got in Europe, then we shut our borders completely and quarantine (which they've started now thankfully) everyone who enters the country until there is a viable vaccine. However you do it the economy is not going to recover quickly. The big issue right now is corporate debt in the US, it is more than double what it was during the GFC. firstone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edgy Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 1 hour ago, sleazius said: The big issue right now is corporate debt in the US, it is more than double what it was during the GFC I believe there is some potential for some serious upside on the AUD-USD currency pair in the next 12 months... it is going to affect everyone differently no doubt, but I really feel that the US is going to take longer than us to bounce back from this, whilst we fell through to a lower $0.55c~ rate than in the GFC ($0.61c~), that is not as sharp (in % terms) than it was in the same timing around the GFC (around half), largely different driving factors of course, but if you look, we have been on a downward trajectory for a long time against the USD. I could be wrong. What is peoples thoughts on realestate? We were set to list our property any day now... I have two chains of thought on this! One says sell now, sit on the $$ and wait 12-18 months, the other says stay put. sleazius 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 I'll be totally honest and declare that I'm not a Doctor, nor have any professional medical qualifications. I did read a very interesting article though on the internet (so I've no doubt that its true) that going for a drive in a GT3 has been proven (based on a peer review) to cure any sickness, mental and/or physical side effects of Covid -19. I don't believe any studies have been conducted on any other models but I feel that the research is onto something. And with that in mind its back to the lab. sleazius, GC9911, Jason A and 8 others 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoHeadsTas Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 28 minutes ago, hugh said: I'll be totally honest and declare that I'm not a Doctor, nor have any professional medical qualifications. I did read a very interesting article though on the internet (so I've no doubt that its true) that going for a drive in a GT3 has been proven (based on a peer review) to cure any sickness, mental and/or physical side effects of Covid -19. I don't believe any studies have been conducted on any other models but I feel that the research is onto something. And with that in mind its back to the lab. Planning on testing this theory tomorrow. 5 days couped up is more enough!!! hugh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilson59 Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 41 minutes ago, hugh said: I'll be totally honest and declare that I'm not a Doctor, nor have any professional medical qualifications. You would be the only one Hugh . Judging by the internet these days everyone seems to have these qualifications crsedge and hugh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 20 minutes ago, wilson59 said: You would be the only one Hugh . Judging by the internet these days everyone seems to have these qualifications “Voted no. 1” by some no name institution is one of my favourites. TwoHeadsTas and wilson59 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airhead Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 2 hours ago, hugh said: I'll be totally honest and declare that I'm not a Doctor, nor have any professional medical qualifications. I did read a very interesting article though on the internet (so I've no doubt that its true) that going for a drive in a GT3 has been proven (based on a peer review) to cure any sickness, mental and/or physical side effects of Covid -19. I don't believe any studies have been conducted on any other models but I feel that the research is onto something. And with that in mind its back to the lab. Dr Hugh. I'm feeling a little off colour. Can you prescribe your GT3 for me for a week? hugh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 1 hour ago, Airhead said: Dr Hugh. I'm feeling a little off colour. Can you prescribe your GT3 for me for a week? Are you able to provide your own sanitiser? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smit2100 Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 14 hours ago, edgy said: What is peoples thoughts on realestate? We were set to list our property any day now... I have two chains of thought on this! One says sell now, sit on the $$ and wait 12-18 months, the other says stay put. In terms of left field thoughts, I'd vote for list given you appear to be well down the path. Try and get the cash now from the soon to be dwindling pool of confident cashed up / liquid buyers and make hay whilst the sun shines with prices right now. Ideally if you do sell, rent in the area you want to buy in based on a 6 month lease with 3 month options ( may even be the house you end up buying) and your cash could give you a min 10 to 15% net of renting costs in extra purchasing power. But make sure you have a rock solid pre- approval of a mortgage loan to compliment your cash balance as you sit on the sidelines. Why? Massive potential for a credit freeze coming I reckon in the next 6 to 12 months. Banks are going to get whacked even further. Yeah governments will sit behind them indirectly but their margins on circa 3% home loans are not what they used be. Plus some of their punters on loan books had steady jobs and cash savings up their sleeves to cover increase serviceability requirements, but not for 6 months plus. Similiarly businesses had great cashflows and lots of customers and long term contracts. Plus in the new world order with a focus on the shape of curves, when we get through this, can't see firing / rehiring being in the form of a V shaped curve. What decimated skeleton HR department or labour recruitment firm can bring back 8000 full time / part time / casuals or 5000 or 1000 or even 500 in warp speed time for big businesses like what happened over the last 10 days. Hiring takes me at least 14 times longer on a great day than firing and that's with a full HR team to lean on. What small business can bring back 1 to 10 employees at the same time who they stood down 3 or 6 months ago. Surely its going to be bring back one or two of the gun performers first, get some cashflow up, over stretch the team with overtime next ( they will be hungry for it) and when the cash and profits come back and sales / comittment orders are increasing (general public confidence in purchasing goods and services increases ) and the existing team is stretched from a human capital perspective, then bring back the next solid performer if available and rinse and repeat. What decent manager or business owner likes laying people off?. They are going to be battle scared and hence weary or conservative when bringing people back on to ensure they don't layoff the same person twice within a year. So as S comes after V, rehiring is going to be more of a S curve in shape as opposed to a V as confidence is regained and sufficient cash is generated. Now that rort of Mortgage insurance and the companies underwriting that who will need to payout policies to the banks who don't self insure for loan defaults surely won't be worth a cracker ( gov will need to bail them out and hence thats where the governement could mainly support the banks I reckon in addition to being a bank to the big banks). So unemployment up and a S curve recovery with a percentage of those unemployed will have a mortgage. Slower rebound of unemployment rate means defaults up ( do these loan repayment holidays do wonders for your credit rating?) and for me capitalisation of interest on some of these loan repayment holidays is just increasing and deferring the banks bad debt if unemployment spikes up and rehiring is in the shape of S curves. So banks are on a hiding to nothing and just delaying the writeoff which means reduced profits and further sliding share prices down the track. Then if the banks call in the debt and firesale the homes / businesses there are only so many cash buyers that can snap them up. Mortgage insurers will perhaps need need to cover the full loan balances which is much more than what they had in their provision calcs (how many loans are likely to be in negative equity positions or little principle paid off) particularly if no buyers around or alternatively are mortgage fire sales. Plus the number of defaults will be grossly underestimated. Surely the banks are smart enough to ensure their policies cover pandemics or have I totally got this mortgage insurance caper totally wrong? Liquidity will be an issue for most punters on the property buy side ( ballsy to switch to a bridging loan) and that includes those punters with A1 credit scores and solid paying secured jobs. So all this suggests a likely credit freeze coming on from the banks as they try to reassess / rebalance the risk in their loan books on their dwindling margins whilst having to increase their provision for bad debts. A credit freeze ain't good for the property market in terms of sustaining current prices. So cash up now, perhaps at least one bargain to be had in your newly desired location at a decent discount over the next 12 to 18 months. Ability to put in an offer not subject to sale of existing residence / and or finance approval / cash ready to go and a 30 day settlement period will be music to at least one sellers bank balance But with that comes a haircut if they are desperate for cash. How does a home inspection work going forward? Strickly by unescorted appointments only ( auctions banned for probably 6 months right?) and skinnied down site visit rules are to be enforced. I.e potential buyers to BYO ppe that must be worn prior to entering the property (rubber gloves, facemask, safety glasses, hazmat suits optional and a pen to sign the attendance register) otherwise entry is refused. Question for you. Assuming you sell and with a bunch of cash, besides paying rent, what would you do with that cash? micknine01 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffy Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 Watching the UK market, as it’s a few weeks along from Aus, in the lower end in the past few weeks as intended to buy just as this all kicked off. all in pounds 991.1 higher mile cars dipped below 40k, we are talking 80k miles or more. 996.2 turbo manuals have slipped about 5k, they were on a high so not surprised. Low mileage cars still sky high. 997.2 a bit all over the place. But overall would say slightly lower. audi r8 (v8 version) feel like they are in free fall, below 28k now... BMW I8 dropped a few k Nissan GTR prices seem low but was not really looking at them waiting for a 5k manual cayman as a track toy, still at 10k+ but again not really watching apart from the occasional glance at a GT4 or Boxster Spyder. The numbers of cars being listed has really slowed up. Dealers are offering contactless sales and delivery or storage options (not sure I would be keen on that if they go belly up, rather it sitting in the street for 6 months). bear924 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeM Posted 29March, 2020 Report Share Posted 29March, 2020 @smit2100 I'm not going to quote you there, yet to the uneducated numpty (aka me) that makes a lot of sense. As a preemptive strike, I've messaged my bank yesterday to discuss the possibility of an equity loan incase one, or both of us, lose our jobs, as there is no way we can survive without it. Do I sell my 911? I'd very much prefer not to, as I'll never get another one (and the missus has banned that from happening anyway), yet the big question is, would a bank allow a decent loan without any income? I highly doubt it, especially if we also have to freeze the home loan payments which will accrue a shitload more interest on top, so we're probably caught between a rock and a very hard place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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