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COVID-19 and the Porsche marketplace

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14 hours ago, corlateanualex341 said:

the situation has not changed for a long time

 I’m quite surprised at how resilient used car market and property market have been.  If a global pandemic doesn’t shock those markets, can’t imagine what will.......nuclear war?   I’d rather pay a little more than wait for that.......🤔

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The governments are squirting the money about - all the while that is happening better off in real things. While some people have done it hard others have barely noticed, income wise.

There’s also the issue of limited supply of new cars which holds up used cars of all types.

I think the other thing is working on cars and driving them is (largely) a solo / small group endeavour.  Only a small % of the loss in travel sales has to make its way to classic cars and market would be kept solid.  I have spent way more money on airlines than car bits over the last few years.  

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2 hours ago, DJM said:

 I’m quite surprised at how resilient used car market and property market have been.  If a global pandemic doesn’t shock those markets, can’t imagine what will.......nuclear war?   I’d rather pay a little more than wait for that.......🤔

+1  I'll put my hand up and say my crystal ball posts were way off.  Looking in the rear vision mirror, I underestimated the amount of disposal income that those who kept their jobs / business owners who didn't need job keeper,   had assigned to holidays precovid.  When your not spending that holiday money  combined with lock downs exacerbating what  else you can spend you disposable income, that pot grows.  With  extra time under lockdowns that previous little sideline itch with more cash available on the  sidelines that would of got off blown on  holidays,  becomes a rash that needs treatment. That stockpile is clearly evident to ministers of finance whilst the  next  holiday bucket is still being amassed and is covered when that is a possibility.  .   Others also develop that same rash that perhaps have a higher level of disposable income stockpiled  and want something tangible for their hard  earned whereby there  is alignment with ministers of finance on funding.    That has  created the  demand in the opposite direction to what I was crystal balling and appears to have  kept pricing at or above pre covid levels in the second hand market.

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5 hours ago, DJM said:

 I’m quite surprised at how resilient used car market and property market have been.  If a global pandemic doesn’t shock those markets, can’t imagine what will.......nuclear war?   I’d rather pay a little more than wait for that.......

Nuclear war wouldn't work as the government would just get out a(nouther) nuclear bomb of a policy response.
Edited by rego

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4 hours ago, smit2100 said:

+1  I'll put my hand up and say my crystal ball posts were way off.  Looking in the rear vision mirror, I underestimated the amount of disposal income that those who kept their jobs / business owners who didn't need job keeper,   had assigned to holidays precovid.  When your not spending that holiday money  combined with lock downs exacerbating what  else you can spend you disposable income, that pot grows.  With  extra time under lockdowns that previous little sideline itch with more cash available on the  sidelines that would of got off blown on  holidays,  becomes a rash that needs treatment. That stockpile is clearly evident to ministers of finance whilst the  next  holiday bucket is still being amassed and is covered when that is a possibility.  .   Others also develop that same rash that perhaps have a higher level of disposable income stockpiled  and want something tangible for their hard  earned whereby there  is alignment with ministers of finance on funding.    That has  created the  demand in the opposite direction to what I was crystal balling and appears to have  kept pricing at or above pre covid levels in the second hand market.

I agree, plus new cars on to the market stopped, which drove up prices and dealers started paying more for stock and buying out of their home state.  I'd say 991 GT3s and turbos are $40-50k dear than pre-covid.  There is one turn currently for sale that was $240 pre-covid, now $285k as an example.

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25 minutes ago, NBTBRV8 said:

I agree, plus new cars on to the market stopped, which drove up prices and dealers started paying more for stock and buying out of their home state.  I'd say 991 GT3s and turbos are $40-50k dear than pre-covid.  There is one turn currently for sale that was $240 pre-covid, now $285k as an example.

Some are not all.  991.1 are inexplicably more now.  991.2 seem about the same, the AH 991.2 GT3 CS just sold $280k and that’s about the bottom we’ve seen.  
 

A few RS sitting around, this one dropped today.  

 

27F02999-20F3-4F79-B1AC-F193294E3235.png

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4 hours ago, DJM said:

Some are not all.  991.1 are inexplicably more now.  991.2 seem about the same, the AH 991.2 GT3 CS just sold $280k and that’s about the bottom we’ve seen.  
 

A few RS sitting around, this one dropped today.  

 

27F02999-20F3-4F79-B1AC-F193294E3235.png

All the 991.1 and .2 turbos are up.  .1 GT3 RS all went up, .1 GT3 went up and .2 GT3 stay really strong.

Prices a moving a little now on the GT cars, but not turbos.  Even an official Porsche dealer told me that they are paying more for cars on the wholesale market now than pre-covid, even the same cars ever asking more.

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12 minutes ago, NBTBRV8 said:

All the 991.1 and .2 turbos are up.  .1 GT3 RS all went up, .1 GT3 went up and .2 GT3 stay really strong.

Prices a moving a little now on the GT cars, but not turbos.  Even an official Porsche dealer told me that they are paying more for cars on the wholesale market now than pre-covid, even the same cars ever asking more.

I paid $290,000 in March for a 6000 km well optioned 991.2 GT3 CS . The exact same spec car and colour of my car on current market 

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2018-porsche-911-gt3-991-auto-my18/SSE-AD-6947770?gts=SSE-AD-6947770&gtssaleid=SSE-AD-6947770&pageSource=details&id=SSE-AD-6947770

 

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1 hour ago, wilson59 said:

I paid $290,000 in March for a 6000 km well optioned 991.2 GT3 CS . The exact same spec car and colour of my car on current market 

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2018-porsche-911-gt3-991-auto-my18/SSE-AD-6947770?gts=SSE-AD-6947770&gtssaleid=SSE-AD-6947770&pageSource=details&id=SSE-AD-6947770

 

It ain’t sold.  I’m tipping you didn’t pay close to list price either?  With covid “behind” us the opportunity to crunch a deal may have diminished.  Can’t see how it’s $75k “better” than the AH car?

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Market has peaked and coming back down. 991.1s not moving at all.

RS prices starting to come back down also. 992 will drive prices back down slowly.

Granted they are still 10% or higher than earlier in year.

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12 hours ago, smit2100 said:

Looking in the rear vision mirror, I underestimated the amount of disposal income that those who kept their jobs / business owners who didn't need job keeper

I think you will find a number of business owners that didnt need Job Keeper GOT Job Keeper and it gave them a huge windfall. The amount of money the Feds and State governments were throwing out was insane. To compound the effect of no travel etc then the amount of disposable $$$ has been insane. 

Think about it this way:

Fed's gave $100K (maximum ie anyone with PAYGW of more than $100K over 6 months got it back) as cash back in the form of Cash Flow assistance no questions asked

State gave refunds of payroll tax on payrolls up to $10M (roughly $450K if getting the full refund or thereabouts)

Anyone that could prove 30% turnover change then received $1500 per employee for 6 months and $1100 (averaged out) for the next 6 months. Think about it this way every 10 employees the employer pocketed $195,000 for the first 6 months. Not bah hey........

 

Put all that together and I can tell you now you are buying a number of decent cars with the proceeds. Do I begrudge anyone who received these funds, no. Do I have an issue with how the government issued the money sure do. They could have at least looked at profitability of the business as a key indicator as well, but used the lazy equation of turnover to work out subsidies. I can tell you, a number of people that ended up buying "Covid Cars", fortunately for us we became even busier and used the cash to hire people. So I guess the price peaks we are seeing will come back once disposable income dries up come April next year. Money is still free flowing and the scarcity of stock is making it an interesting proposition if you are a buyer. 

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Totally agree with @ArthurK.

 I run a financial advisory & investment business and a large number of our clients are (almost) embarrassed by the covid $$’s they have received........but they have gotten over that problem remarkably quickly, and found consumer & real estate therapy has helped substantially!

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8 hours ago, DJM said:

It ain’t sold.  I’m tipping you didn’t pay close to list price either?  With covid “behind” us the opportunity to crunch a deal may have diminished.  Can’t see how it’s $75k “better” than the AH car?

Can’t either see it being worth $75 k more or selling for that just an example of asking price .

 

5 hours ago, Rick V said:

Totally agree with @ArthurK.

 I run a financial advisory & investment business and a large number of our clients are (almost) embarrassed by the covid $$’s they have received........but they have gotten over that problem remarkably quickly, and found consumer & real estate therapy has helped substantially!

Same . We have been busier than we have been for years but the upside is we have also employed two new people while keeping our other staff employed. The system seemed to work because it has given the economy a boost from what I can see 

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6 hours ago, Rick V said:

Totally agree with @ArthurK.

 I run a financial advisory & investment business and a large number of our clients are (almost) embarrassed by the covid $$’s they have received........but they have gotten over that problem remarkably quickly, and found consumer & real estate therapy has helped substantially!

 Excuse my lack of education @Rick V @ArthurK

  I'm assuming that in effect gave business owners a load of cash for doing absolutely nothing, even though they continued to trade as per normal with no lay offs/redundancies, correct? 

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1 hour ago, LeeM said:

 Excuse my lack of education @Rick V @ArthurK

  I'm assuming that in effect gave business owners a load of cash for doing absolutely nothing, even though they continued to trade as per normal with no lay offs/redundancies, correct? 

No that's the dole mate .Very few business had trade as normal . The government will get it back with increased sales turnover  

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7 hours ago, Rick V said:

Totally agree with @ArthurK.

 I run a financial advisory & investment business and a large number of our clients are (almost) embarrassed by the covid $$’s they have received........but they have gotten over that problem remarkably quickly, and found consumer & real estate therapy has helped substantially!

I’m all for keeping things simple but I think the government rushed JK and overlooked a number of things.  We qualified because we decided in 2018 to strategically reduce the scale of our business, obviously unrelated to Covid.  But that meant we could show -30% yoy in 2020 so we qualified for JK right through.  We did not need to show reduction in profit or that revenue impact was due to covid or that it would encourage us to retain staff who would otherwise be let go.  No embarrassment here, we’ve paid a decent slug of all sorts of taxes over the last 15 years so when ATO is offering handouts, we’re all over it.

seems like there are other issues with the way it was setup.  Being  a simple revenue test, there will no doubt be some unscrupulous operators who have fudged their accounts, taken cash off the books etc so qualify for -30% on paper but they will get the whack they deserve.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/jobkeeper-payments-are-not-transparent-vulnerable-to-fraud/12975764

1 hour ago, LeeM said:

 Excuse my lack of education @Rick V @ArthurK

  I'm assuming that in effect gave business owners a load of cash for doing absolutely nothing, even though they continued to trade as per normal with no lay offs/redundancies, correct? 

If trading as normal then they are not 30% down on revenue and don’t qualify.  For those who do qualify, the theory was it would prevent layoffs/redundancies that would otherwise be necessary to survive.  Cash injection to bridge those staff across to the recovery phase.

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It let a friend of mine stay in business and keep staff on.  So it does work.  It is a tax rebate and the extra cash in business pockets shows what a drag the number and level of taxation is.  I don’t think it was necessarily well done but it was an interesting change to just cutting checks to all and sundry. 
 

all the money will be printed and that means real assets are headed for an increase in comparison to the printed and inflated money.  So porsches are headed for an up in prices (arguably already here) as is artwork real estate rare stamps gold - you name it.  If the qty available didn’t change and the cash available has, then the number of one required to get the other changes.

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3 hours ago, DJM said:

 No embarrassment here, we’ve paid a decent slug of all sorts of taxes over the last 15 years so when ATO is offering handouts, we’re all over it.

DJM, totally agree there is no embarrassment to be had or a feeling of guilt. If the government formula fits then take. They certain take from us using their universal formula of taxation. A very good friend of mine once said, never leave dollars on the table, if its up for grabs then take. We are all going to be paying this back for a long time coming. 

2 hours ago, Coastr said:

It let a friend of mine stay in business and keep staff on.  So it does work.

Yep totally agreed it did have the desired effect in keeping businesses going. It was insane though that long term casuals were earning the sum of money they were and refusing to come to work on top of that though. The formula was somewhat better for JK 2.0.

4 hours ago, LeeM said:

I'm assuming that in effect gave business owners a load of cash for doing absolutely nothing

It gave business owners liquidity whether they needed it or not. I put my hand up and say we received a stupid amount of money outside of JK where it was applied automatically and didnt even have to apply for the funds. When 6 digit sums of money are dished out and you know an easy route has been taken. You only need to look at Premier Group and the money they took home from JK.

 

Anyway we digress, but I am a firm believer that the toys vanishing from the market place has been a side benefit of all the money gifts. Similarly the property market has been stupid busy behind the scenes vs on market transactions. Based on conversations I have had with a number of realestate agents, there has been more off market activity this year than ever before. The other problem the second hand market faces is the continuous increase in pricing on the new release cars. I hate to think what the 992 GT3 will settle in at when a 992 Carrera is retailing at $291K (an example sitting on the floor at Brighton Porsche).

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21 hours ago, ArthurK said:

 I hate to think what the 992 GT3 will settle in at when a 992 Carrera is retailing at $291K (an example sitting on the floor at Brighton Porsche).

Surely that 290K is the driveaway price which includes the inflated Victorian taxation @ nearly 10% ???

Or does it?

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Happy New Year all.

So what are the 2021 predictions for used car prices given ongoing COVID and economic conditions?

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22 minutes ago, OzJustin said:

Happy New Year all.

So what are the 2021 predictions for used car prices given ongoing COVID and economic conditions?

My crystal ball is no better than anyone else's but in reading financials and strategy from various car manufacturers, the Chinese market is the only one they are generally expecting to rise. China has been Porsche's biggest market in terms of units sold for a number of years now. Chinese consumer preferences will have a bigger and bigger role. The 2021 cars being released for western markets show a lot of cost cutting, e.g. initial reviews of the VW Golf MK8 are showing lots of examples of this.  All in all I don't think production of new cars will massively change things over the next 12 months.

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