Market moment 2018 to current.

[edgy]

Nothing to do with the current financial and pandemic activities, those are seperate conversations that can be intertwined if you wished to and still happening so not static. 

What I am curious about is, where people see the market has shifted in % terms from around 2018? It seems 2017 it corrected (down) and seemingly hit a plateau till around last year, which I feel it moved further downward... and I am coming at it from a very general approach, but seeing some blue chip stocks like 996 GT3 RS dipping under the 300's in the largest salesrooms in the land, it supports the concept that the market is down. 

Again, I want to approach it in a pragmatic matter so transaction values would be most useful... and for full disclosure I am thinking about moving a car or two (not the GT3) and maybe picking up one. I find its best to have the context of the market right when selling (and buying). 

Cheers

[sleazius]

Buying -> now till vaccine (deals will pop up at any point now until vaccine).

Selling -> hold till 12 months after vaccine.

The market is down another 6% today. My older relatives are already shitting bricks about their fixed incomes and investments, and the panic is clearly rising.

Times like this it is useful to remember these two quotes;

Keynes: "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

Buffett: "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"

edit - I posted this because I think whatever pre-conceptions existed about the market are now dead. This is another GFC, just caused by something different. Whatever the P-car market was doing prior to this event really is irrelevant imo.

[wilson59]

I prefer this quote

Wilson59: "Buy the car you want now not the one you want later "

[edgy]

17 minutes ago, wilson59 said:

I prefer this quote

Wilson59: "Buy the car you want now not the one you want later "

Do you own a 991 GT3 yet? Sounds like it.....

 

49 minutes ago, sleazius said:

Whatever the P-car market was doing prior to this event really is irrelevant imo.

Yes, and I agree... my question was really, what can you expect that movement to be? I used 2018 as my base # cos its the last time I transacted a P car... Whilst I am not oblivious to the facts at hand, the drivers & impact, I really don't care for the discussion. I consume FX market data every morning with my coffee, I don't want to read about it on a car forum really. 

 

[wilson59]

32 minutes ago, edgy said:

Do you own a 991 GT3 yet? Sounds like it.....

 

Yes, and I agree... my question was really, what can you expect that movement to be? I used 2018 as my base # cos its the last time I transacted a P car... Whilst I am not oblivious to the facts at hand, the drivers & impact, I really don't care for the discussion. I consume FX market data every morning with my coffee, I don't want to read about it on a car forum really. 

 

Not yet . For me with all the doom and gloom I don't  buy toys ( Porsches ) without having the money I will not borrow money for it .

Is it the right time to buy who knows but I also go into buying a car with expectations of loss . I also give myself comfort in knowing that if I do a track day closed road event I have no insurance and put the car into a wall it's a massive loss  but this still will not put me off doing events like that .

So if I can take that risk which I will not question taking a risk of when buying a car at the right or wrong time seems ridiculous for me .

[sleazius]

23 minutes ago, edgy said:

Do you own a 991 GT3 yet? Sounds like it.....

 

Yes, and I agree... my question was really, what can you expect that movement to be? I used 2018 as my base # cos its the last time I transacted a P car... Whilst I am not oblivious to the facts at hand, the drivers & impact, I really don't care for the discussion. I consume FX market data every morning with my coffee, I don't want to read about it on a car forum really. 

 

As it pertains to your question - do you remember GT3 RSs listed right on $200k during the GFC? Or 458 Ferraris languishing in the low 200s that only 9 months before were bought for $500k?

I really don't know how you can have any discussion on this topic without considering it the primary factor for the forseeable future.

I'm in the health business. Covid-19 isn't going away, in fact it is likely going to get very very bad and soon. Those that need to be hospitalised on average stay there for 22 days. Those that die from it take 18.5 days on average. The problem being that there are only so many ventilators to go around, and so many hospital beds - 3.8 beds per thousand people in Australia and that is high by OECD standards (Italy is 3.4 FYI). The issue is that it doesn't take much for the health care system here to become overwhelmed, and by global standards we're in the top 10.

Italy isn't shut down because they're worried about how deadly it is, it is shut down because the health system is already overwhelmed to the point of breaking, and they've only got 12000 people infected on a population of 60 million. What do they do if it becomes 120000, or 1.2M? NSW health is already conducting drills where they test people in their cars, and don't let anyone into the hospitals. Anyone who works in health care knows that the virus is uncontained, at this point it is just triage, just trying to slow down the rate of infection.

The only circuit breakers for this are a vaccine, mass graves for the elderly (like the Spanish Flu), or economic collapse. I know how many weeks payroll I'm holding, I also know that my business interruption insurance doesn't cover a pandemic (nor does anyone elses).

Apply that globally and you can see why I feel the way I do.

(BTW - I really hope I'm wrong).

[edgy]

16 minutes ago, wilson59 said:

Not yet . For me with all the doom and gloom I don't  buy toys ( Porsches ) without having the money I will not borrow money for it .

Is it the right time to buy who knows but I also go into buying a car with expectations of loss . I also give myself comfort in knowing that if I do a track day closed road event I have no insurance and put the car into a wall it's a massive loss  but this still will not put me off doing events like that .

So if I can take that risk which I will not question taking a risk of when buying a car at the right or wrong time seems ridiculous for me .

No it makes sense, any discretional spend really shouldn't be leveraged... I do tend to look at most car buying with the notion that I am pissing away the capital cost plus maintenance 

7 minutes ago, sleazius said:

As it pertains to your question - do you remember GT3 RSs listed right on $200k during the GFC? Or 458 Ferraris languishing in the low 200s that only 9 months before were bought for $500k?

I really don't know how you can have any discussion on this topic without considering it the primary factor for the forseeable future.

I'm in the health business. Covid-19 isn't going away, in fact it is likely going to get very very bad and soon. Those that need to be hospitalised on average stay there for 22 days. Those that die from it take 18.5 days on average. The problem being that there are only so many ventilators to go around, and so many hospital beds - 3.8 beds per thousand people in Australia and that is high by OECD standards (Italy is 3.4 FYI). The issue is that it doesn't take much for the health care system here to become overwhelmed, and by global standards we're in the top 10.

Italy isn't shut down because they're worried about how deadly it is, it is shut down because the health system is already overwhelmed to the point of breaking, and they've only got 12000 people infected on a population of 60 million. What do they do if it becomes 120000, or 1.2M? NSW health is already conducting drills where they test people in their cars, and don't let anyone into the hospitals. Anyone who works in health care knows that the virus is uncontained, at this point it is just triage, just trying to slow down the rate of infection.

The only circuit breakers for this are a vaccine, mass graves for the elderly (like the Spanish Flu), or economic collapse. I know how many weeks payroll I'm holding, I also know that my business interruption insurance doesn't cover a pandemic (nor does anyone elses).

Apply that globally and you can see why I feel the way I do.

(BTW - I really hope I'm wrong).

don't forget the onslaught of abandoned cars in Dubai as expats fled!

I get your point, and it is totally valid... I guess I was just hoping for someone to say "hey lower your expectations by 25%"  

[sleazius]

17 minutes ago, edgy said:

No it makes sense, any discretional spend really shouldn't be leveraged... I do tend to look at most car buying with the notion that I am pissing away the capital cost plus maintenance 

don't forget the onslaught of abandoned cars in Dubai as expats fled!

I get your point, and it is totally valid... I guess I was just hoping for someone to say "hey lower your expectations by 25%"  

If you price below market you might get lucky and jag a buyer before things really go to shit. Ideally though you would hold and add to your portfolio of cars rather than sell. That is what I plan to do anyway 

[edgy]

6 minutes ago, sleazius said:

If you price below market you might get lucky and jag a buyer before things really go to shit. Ideally though you would hold and add to your portfolio of cars rather than sell. That is what I plan to do anyway 

That is exactly my problem mate... I have not sold a car since 2017 (and CTS did it for me), I just keep buying them... I literally have cars stashed all over the place at the moment.  it's probably  a bad time to mention that one I bought out of the US showed up this week unannounced. 

[1q2w3e4r]

3 hours ago, sleazius said:

As it pertains to your question - do you remember GT3 RSs listed right on $200k during the GFC? Or 458 Ferraris languishing in the low 200s that only 9 months before were bought for $500k?

I really don't know how you can have any discussion on this topic without considering it the primary factor for the forseeable future.

I'm in the health business. Covid-19 isn't going away, in fact it is likely going to get very very bad and soon. Those that need to be hospitalised on average stay there for 22 days. Those that die from it take 18.5 days on average. The problem being that there are only so many ventilators to go around, and so many hospital beds - 3.8 beds per thousand people in Australia and that is high by OECD standards (Italy is 3.4 FYI). The issue is that it doesn't take much for the health care system here to become overwhelmed, and by global standards we're in the top 10.

Italy isn't shut down because they're worried about how deadly it is, it is shut down because the health system is already overwhelmed to the point of breaking, and they've only got 12000 people infected on a population of 60 million. What do they do if it becomes 120000, or 1.2M? NSW health is already conducting drills where they test people in their cars, and don't let anyone into the hospitals. Anyone who works in health care knows that the virus is uncontained, at this point it is just triage, just trying to slow down the rate of infection.

The only circuit breakers for this are a vaccine, mass graves for the elderly (like the Spanish Flu), or economic collapse. I know how many weeks payroll I'm holding, I also know that my business interruption insurance doesn't cover a pandemic (nor does anyone elses).

Apply that globally and you can see why I feel the way I do.

(BTW - I really hope I'm wrong).

100%.  I wouldn't be buying anything discretionary in the next 12 months that was decent $$$, the prices are going to take a massive hit when this thing starts to hit the economy.  It'll likely make the GFC look like the shallow end of a very deep pool and I expect plenty will be caught without clothes on when the tide rolls out.

For context I suppose in 2011 a 996 GT2 could be had for $110k (as I landed on that price and passed on one), a 6/3RS could be had for $170k and 993TTs were a dime a dozen at $140k.   The prices of all of these (and plenty of other stuff) is significantly higher than the same models in other world markets. 

 

[smit2100]

 

6 hours ago, 1q2w3e4r said:

100%.  I wouldn't be buying anything discretionary in the next 12 months that was decent $$$, the prices are going to take a massive hit when this thing starts to hit the economy.  It'll likely make the GFC look like the shallow end of a very deep pool and I expect plenty will be caught without clothes on when the tide rolls out.

For context I suppose in 2011 a 996 GT2 could be had for $110k (as I landed on that price and passed on one), a 6/3RS could be had for $170k and 993TTs were a dime a dozen at $140k.   The prices of all of these (and plenty of other stuff) is significantly higher than the same models in other world markets. 

 

Just a view, but I think now is the  time if you have access to cash to go hard on one or two carefully selected shares in the short term  as opposed  to one or two carefully selected  p cars.  The returns on carefully selected shares with a set and forget approach with a 2 year time horizon before sniffing out a p car or two is more likely to be more advantageous to you than potentially trying to pick up  bargain basement  liquidation p car  wholesale  pricing  in the near term  and then  seeing a stunning price  rebound with a 2 year time horizon.

So  not the time to be buying p cars if you have cash / access to cash as I see it.

For instance, there's a very nice 997.1 gt3 up grabs referenced on  here that is / was  value for money (perhaps  less so with where the asx is today / trending  and using that as a bit of a new signpost  ) if you can perhaps haggle a  bit off its current asking as I see / saw it.   However if you outlayed say circa 150k for it now and that wascenough to secure it, where's that  150k outlay in 12 to 18 months time going to position you.     Compare that to say pumping 150k into webjet shares at $6 ish bucks for a  price earnings ratio of circa 7 on forward looking projections that have been corona virus tempered.    I would be reasonably confident that  stocks worth $ 11 ( not even near where it was 3 weeks ago) within 18-24  months time particularly if a corona vaccine is available.  They have minimal real estate exposure and can cut costs easier than peers to ride out a second travel  tsunami if  Trump gets his way without even building a wall and  closes all borders / air travel to all outside aliens).  So that's  a potential  100k after tax profit.  I see much more value their than any movement down  then up in a 997.1 gt3. 

So I would look at say moving into  a 997.1 gt3 today as being a 2 year project pursuit with a 91k cash purchase price budget .  i.e  buy 150k of webjet shares from a 3.5%  fixed interest rate loan for  24 months, that's a  cash outlay of  circa 11k for a projected cash return of 100k profit ( if they get to $11).  Then add 80k of your own cash in two years time ( can't see  a 997.1gt3 being  out of reach with a 180k budget  in two years time). On the flip side,  not convinced an honest  997.1 gt3 is coming down to 91k anytime  within the next two years or can't see a 997.1 gt3 going to 250k in the next two years either.    Plus for most of us, it's not as we  haven't got something to tie us  over for the 24 months whilst you patiently  wait on how your project progresses.  ( my current weekend rides probably quicker than a 997.1gt3 for  general road use in terms of butt dyno / actual time to cover a short distance in a straight line , particularly in third gear anyway).

 

 

 

[flamingporsche]

That's all well & good to defer purchase on new pcars.  Some of us have already outlaid large wedges of cash... I did so with cash and on expectation of a long term hold so no worries for me there.  I still haven't seen my investment yet (come-on ceva! )…  I'd be guessing @wilson59 is in similar position from his comments above.

I like your suggestions @smit2100 re: targeted set n forget investment (qantas is probably in the same vein as Flight Centre).  That said, I just pulled out of an unlisted seed money opportunity (the joys of marriage).  Cash is king, and we're holding for a bit longer - market will be bumpy down - bumpy up.  Dollar cost averaging will be the order of the day when we decide to jump back in.  What I do foresee is some big 1 day gains when the market turns and you want to be in the market when that happens and again on the sell-offs/profit-taking in between.

I'm still operating on the proviso of 1-out/1-in basis so the next pcar purchase is a looong way away.  I'm gonna drive the wheels off my 996tt for the next few years at least 

[DJM]

Should’ve put $1M in stock market this arvo and it’d be $1.1M by days end........😂

[GC9911]

20 minutes ago, DJM said:

Should’ve put $1M in stock market this arvo and it’d be $1.1M by days end........😂

So you don’t know where the bottom is either, I decided to do a buy on some to average down on existing stock & pick up some new to spread the risk but didn’t pull the trigger. Whimps reward once again!

[TwoHeadsTas]

8 minutes ago, GC9911 said:

So you don’t know where the bottom is either, I decided to do a buy on some to average down on existing stock & pick up some new to spread the risk but didn’t pull the trigger. Whimps reward once again!

Sold out some good ones on the way down with view of buying back in at the bottom, but thought we'd got there.  Nah!!!  I managed to buy on the 1 day bounce twice, only to see another 20% wiped off subsequently 😞   Still got a little bit in reserve to put back in, some very cheap quality stocks there at the moment like MQG, RMD, FPH, CSL etc

[smit2100]

3 hours ago, TwoHeadsTas said:

Sold out some good ones on the way down with view of buying back in at the bottom, but thought we'd got there.  Nah!!!  I managed to buy on the 1 day bounce twice, only to see another 20% wiped off subsequently 😞   Still got a little bit in reserve to put back in, some very cheap quality stocks there at the moment like MQG, RMD, FPH, CSL etc

Crazy day today.  A mate brought csl at 261 this morning and it ended  the day at 313.  Not enough zeros on the buy order but.