Another Australian F1 Driver in 2025

[Carrera28]

Announcement

[JWM]

Has there ever been three aussies racing in a season before?

[LeeM]

I dare say there will only be 2 Aussies in F1 next season, as Lawson seems to be in a Red Bull car going by social media comments 

[sleazius]

Danny Ric will probably be put out to pasture.

[JWM]

Yeah Danny’s cooked for sure, I was talking about Valtteri 😂

[Harsh]

1 hour ago, sleazius said:

Danny Ric will probably be put out to pasture.

Not so sure on that,some rumours agoing he will move to Williams

[Yeatesy]

53 minutes ago, Harsh said:

Not so sure on that,some rumours agoing he will move to Williams

Williams have signed Sainz and are retaining Albion so that’s not happening 

[Carrera28]

Just now, Yeatesy said:

Williams have signed Sainz and are retaining Albion so that’s not happening 

Sainz is supposed to have a release clause that can be triggered if offered a seat at Mercedes or Red Bull.

Eddie Irvine believes Mercedes will sign Verstappen, who has a release clause in his favour if Helmut Marko leaves Red Bull.  It is possible, albeit unlikely that Verstappen could go to Mercedes, however in that case Mercedes would likely pressure Williams to take Antonelli in the form of reduced engine fees or other contra deals which for an ambitious team like Williams could fund R&D, so that might not help DR3.

The unknown quantity for Red Bull is their engines in 2026.  They have put in place an in house engine supplier which they founded with Honda IP, however the engines are still being built by Honda in Japan and are being maintained by the in house factory staff albeit overseen by Honda technicians .  Their deal with Ford for 2026 onwards is not to supply engines, but rather to supply the hybrid technology.  So for 2026 they will need to build their own engines for the first time, and their hybrid system will be built by a manufacturer who has never built an F1 Hybrid system previously.

With Red Bull's drop off in form in 2024 recently Verstappen could I suppose lose confidence in Red Bull.  Mercedes certainly have the money to meet his requirements (Hamilton's base deal is better than Verstappen, Verstappen is only earning more through bonuses). 

The personalities involved are potentially complex.  The person with whom Christian Horner was accused of inappropriate conduct is rumoured to be dating Jos Verstappen so Jos may be whispering in Max's ear and there does appear to be power struggle between Helmut Marko and Horner so Marko could leave.  Both of those would trigger his release clause and with Mercedes winning again maybe, just maybe he goes to Mercedes and then suddenly Sainz becomes an option for Red Bull.  Its a lot of rumour and innuendo, and who knows if any of it is true 😆🤪

Personally I think that DR3's best option would be to talk to Audi and see what is happening there.  While he doesn't have another offer he is a pawn between the Horner/Marko power games.

3 hours ago, JWM said:

Has there ever been three aussies racing in a season before?

I don't believe for an entire season, there have been races though in 70's that had three Aussies (Brabham, Schenken and Perkins I believe)

 

 

 

 

[Harsh]

10 hours ago, Yeatesy said:

Williams have signed Sainz and are retaining Albion so that’s not happening 

He has a million clauses in his deal with Williams,likely to go to Red Bull or Mercedes. Watch the interview

[LeeM]

Update: Marko says Lawson will be in an RB car next year, yet Horner is now saying he's not.

The drama continues 🙄

[sleazius]

Not that I follow the sport anymore, but I always hated Marko when I did.

[Harsh]

On 24/08/2024 at 09:40, LeeM said:

Update: Marko says Lawson will be in an RB car next year, yet Horner is now saying he's not.

The drama continues 🙄

Marko is gone

[JWM]

19 minutes ago, Harsh said:

Marko is gone

If he goes, Max will too. 

[Carrera28]

4 hours ago, Harsh said:

Marko is gone

He does appear to be far less influential and his press pronouncements have thus far proven to broadly inaccurate and potentially indicative of waning influence.

Marko used to be protected at Red Bull as he was very close with Dietrich Mateschitz and he was able to communicate directly with Mateschitz, whilst Horner had to go through channels and didn't have as easy access to the top.  Red Bull was Mateschitz's passion project and Marko was directly appointed by him.  Mateschitz effectively had two F1 advisors Marko and ex F1 driver Gerhard Berger.  Berger and Marko are close, Marko had helped Berger throughout his career with commercial opportunities and Marko helped Berger make a fortune on buying and selling Toro Rosso (of course he lost much of that money on several divorces).  Therefore Horner's voice was never as loud or able to be directly delivered to the ultimate decision maker.

Whilst Mateschitz was alive he had 51% control of the company and effectively he made sure the team was funded and backed to the hilt.  However, upon his death 51% control vested in the Thai side of the business.  Red Bull F1 appear to now be subject to more governance and supervision before through the Board the team is open to more corporate scrutiny than in the past. 

This one of the reasons why Mateschitz, when he was ill, started the negotiations with Porsche to get them into the team.  He wanted a large corporate who had both money and a background in motorsport and specifically winning in motorsport to be brought on board.  The idea being that this would provide a source of revenue for the team beyond Red Bull, who post Mateschitz will potentially see F1 as a large cash drain when the team stops winning (as every team does).  If Porsche had owned half the team they would have kicked in more money to keep the team winning and potentially bought Red Bull out if necessary.

However, both Horner and Marko baulked at this as they were nervous of losing control (neither has any equity in the team unlike Toto Wolff), now the upshot is they are both fighting behind the scenes for their position and roles in a team that has dependence on one source of revenue, i.e. the Red Bull Marketing budget.  Marko has better access to the board as there are still a number of Austrian board members that he has a strong relationship with.  However, Horner has better organisational power being the CEO/Team Principal.  Both have been weakened by the fact that their power games have contributed to Adrian Newey's departure and of course Horner was involved in the harassment issue.

By reputation Marko is a particularly aggressive person, with a take no prisoner approach, and while I suspect you are correct in your assessment that he will be asked to leave. it would not surprise me to see him stay on long enough to ensure that Horner loses his his job as well.

4 hours ago, JWM said:

If he goes, Max will too. 

If Marko leaves that triggers Verstappen's release clause, if nothing else at that point Verstappen will want to re-negotiate his deal for more money and less corporate work as they cannot afford for him to drive somewhere else.  If the Mercedes engine is competitive in 2026 that will potentially make both Mercedes and McLaren prime destinations (Norris/Verstappen swap?), if the Honda engine is fast, with Newey in the team and Alonso close to retirement Aston would likely knock again with a massive offer so Verstappen would certainly have a lot of options.

Marko I believe has a close relationship with the Piech side of the Porsche family, I do not know which side of the family has dominance currently, if it is the Piech side Marko could end up at Audi post Red Bull as they have just had a management shake up, which could potentially make them a wild card for Verstappen's signature or at least to make Mercedes offer even more money just to stop Max going to their German competitors.

[TwoHeadsTas]

Wow C28, you are incredibly well versed in the machinations of the RB F1 world!!!

Just as an aside, one of my ex-boss's daughters worked for RB Marketing, she spent a few years based in Austria and moved back to Oz 4 or 5 years ago.  I remember him saying, after a trip to visit her in Sydney, that he'd been in at her office the day before, and the sales figures had come in,  1M Red Bull cans sold the day before in Australia!!!! 

Think that provides the info about how they can afford to support the team!!

 

[Carrera28]

8 hours ago, TwoHeadsTas said:

Wow C28, you are incredibly well versed in the machinations of the RB F1 world!!!

Just as an aside, one of my ex-boss's daughters worked for RB Marketing, she spent a few years based in Austria and moved back to Oz 4 or 5 years ago.  I remember him saying, after a trip to visit her in Sydney, that he'd been in at her office the day before, and the sales figures had come in,  1M Red Bull cans sold the day before in Australia!!!! 

Think that provides the info about how they can afford to support the team!!

 

When Red Bull started in Austria (the drink was sold previously under a different name in Asia) almost their entire initial marketing budgeting was sponsorship of Gerhard Berger (pre his first stint at Ferrari) which explains Berger's close relationship with Mateschitz, as they were friends at a time when Berger's family was the richer of the two!!  Recognising that they could not hope to match Coca Cola's advertising budget after sponsoring Berger they made a conscious decision to do their advertising through sponsorship of athletes.  Extreme sports was a growth sport and athletes in those sports were getting big coverage but were still cheaper than established stars.  From that point onwards they have spent their marketing budget almost entirely on sponsorship.

As expensive as Red Bull F1 is to run I suspect it still is a smaller budget than Coca Cola's worldwide advertising budget and likely gets better exposure.  There is one big advantage for Red Bull in terms of its expenditure over say Mercedes.  Red Bull are not a prestige auto manufacturer and just being in F1 is good for their brand and produces positive brand value.

However for a large prestige car company like Mercedes being in F1 and doing badly is not good for their brand value.  I doubt their board would continue to fund Mercedes (they have second biggest budget after the Scuderia) to their current level if they went through a slump like McLaren went through particularly if Audi or BMW were continually beating them as that would associate them as a losers as a company as large as Mercedes cannot ever market itself as the plucky underdog

But if Red Bull loses for long enough the board will start asking why own a team that costs $500m a year to run when you could be major sponsor of McLaren for half that money and also sponsor a Penske Indycar for $50m and have $200m left over for other sponsorship.  So while Red Bull board would likely be more patient than the Mercedes Board they will still be pretty ruthless and they don't have Mateschitz over the top protecting them anymore.

I suspect that the Red Bull Engine factory is make or break for the future of Horner as if that factory does not deliver a strong engine RB will struggle and another engine manufacturer will be reluctant to sell them engines because of their deal with Ford.  Ford will be providing the hybrid system and Honda or Mercedes may not want a Ford system diluting their engine brand.

[flamingporsche]

On 26/08/2024 at 18:17, Carrera28 said:

I suspect that the Red Bull Engine factory is make or break for the future of Horner as if that factory does not deliver a strong engine RB will struggle and another engine manufacturer will be reluctant to sell them engines because of their deal with Ford.  Ford will be providing the hybrid system and Honda or Mercedes may not want a Ford system diluting their engine brand.

Whilst this is correct - there is also the converse conundrum of Alpine/Renault in talks with Mercedes to supply engines.  How does the marketing department deal with that one?!  Effectively turns Alpine into a marketing exercise - they may as well have just sponsored Sauber (that ship has sailed to Audi) and sold to Andretti/Audi/Porsche so the backroom powerbrokers can be happy with only 10 teams on the grid - and get top dollar because they have 3 bidders vying for 1 spot on the grid.

[Carrera28]

6 hours ago, flamingporsche said:

Whilst this is correct - there is also the converse conundrum of Alpine/Renault in talks with Mercedes to supply engines.  How does the marketing department deal with that one?!  Effectively turns Alpine into a marketing exercise - they may as well have just sponsored Sauber (that ship has sailed to Audi) and sold to Andretti/Audi/Porsche so the backroom powerbrokers can be happy with only 10 teams on the grid - and get top dollar because they have 3 bidders vying for 1 spot on the grid.

Alpine has a different brand dynamic.

Firstly Alpine is a boutique brand which is converting to completely electric anyway so having a Mercedes ICE engine in their car will not have a particular impact on their brand as they do not plan to continue making ICE engines anyway.  Given Mercedes' engine budget and history in making engines (they bought Ilmor years ago) they will probably have the best engine at the beginning of 2026 and if this happens Alpine will likely be much more competitive over night when rules change.

Secondly Renault who owns Alpine is not a premium brand and for them just competing in F1 has historically been enough to create a halo effect over the brand and they have a history of racing with other manufacturers engine anyway.  In Senna's last season with them and subsequently when Piquet raced for them they had Honda engines. 

Porsche was not have been interested in buying them.  They are not a winning team, they are not flush with cash and they do not have fantastic facilities.  Porsche wanted to buy into Red Bull to access Red Bull's infrastructure and Red Bull's dollars bringing their technical expertise.  Buying Alpine would mean Porsche would need to expand the factory, bring the money and bring their expertise.  Porsche was burnt by the Footwork deal and also by their CART engine deal around the same time neither of which were good for the brand cost them a lot of money.  The WEC cars provide decent exposure for about a 1/4 of the budget and winning Le Mans is very good publicity. 

For the Porsche brand just being in F1 is not enough as the halo effect for Porsche works when they win, if they are coming 6th or 7th from a marketing perspective that just says the Porsche technology is inferior to Mercedes and Ferrari   Audi bought Sauber predominately because Sauber has good physical infrastructure and they have one of the best wind tunnels in F1.  The Audi brand is smaller than BMW or Mercedes and just being in F1 will initially have a halo effect on the brand and they will likely be happy to wait for a few years to start winning. 

Andretti did not have an engine deal for 2026, their deal with Cadillac was for the hybrid system only and potentially for an engine deal in 2028 at the earliest.  Originally Andretti was planning to use a Renault customer engine when they entered and of course with Renault deciding not build a 2026 specification engine they would have had to negotiate with Ferrari, Mercedes or Honda.

Realistically both Ferrari and Mercedes would have been reluctant to sell them engines at a discount price due to politics and dislike of the way that they tried to bully their way in (from their perspective) so it would have needed a Honda deal.  Honda would have almost certainly insisted that that they were customer specification engines (Aston has an exclusive factory engine deal) using Honda hybrid system which would have meant Andretti would have lost its Cadillac money.  So in all likelihood if Alpine was sold to Andretti part of the deal would have been to build engines to 2026 regulations for at least 3 years which of course Renault do not appear to want to do.