911 values ........here we go again!

[Dreamr]

Found this link while browsing on PP....

Interesting read and some interesting comments..

https://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/the-skyrocketing-prices-of-air-cooled-911s--and-best-porsches-to-snatch-while-they-re-still-cheap-182212849.html

Here we go again!!!!!

BTW..... don't shoot the messenger...

[tazzieman]

 

 

Martin is particularly keen on the early and mid-’80s 911 SC, which represented Porsche “becoming a real car; they were comfortable, lasted forever and can still be had for $20,000 to $35,000. After that, the 911 started getting very complicated, with all-wheel-drive and turbos. Those are magnificent cars, but what they can do completely outstrips what you can do with them on the street.”

   

Martin’s view of the continuing air-cooled 911 frenzy is that “it is good for the marque, because more people will restore these cars, so there will be more mechanics dedicated to them and more parts. But it’ll be bad for most enthusiasts, because they just won’t be able to afford many of the cars the way they used to.”

   

Canepa echoes that dual sentiment. “I think it’s great these cars are being appreciated,” he says, pausing. “But, honestly, some days I wish it wasn’t happening. They’re amazing cars, and I’d hate to see them just turn into show queens.” Editor Stout laments the possibility that “fewer (911s) will be exercised as intended, and many will disappear into collections.”

   

 

As he then says , the Boxster (& Cayman) will become the sports car of choice for the enthusiast . Some of them are starting to look really cheap (to buy at least). Good new for at least one of my Porsche happy sons.

[Simonoz]

Thanks Dreamr. Interesting article but no real surprise. It will be interesting to see how the two 993 RS's go at auction, given my new involvement.

Re early Boxsters, my mechanic has turned me off those engines for life no matter how cheap the cars get. I think theres going to be a lot of Boxsters scrapped because the economics just dont add up when the engine lets go.

[tazzieman]

Well the Boxster conundrum is an interesting one. But 20 years ago , how many people were DIYing 911s? Very very few. Now with the internet many things are possible Idiot's guide to maintaining a Boxster

 

Once the IMS is fixed , as long as it's maintained , I suspect it will cost as much as any modern "German" engine .

OTOH , a simple 911 rebuild (often premature it seems) is around 15-20k , which will not add the same amount to the value. 

 

Boxsters are the new MX5s and will enjoy the same enthusiastic demographic that supports that scene. It's already the case in the USA now that Boxsters are cheap. And being cheap , they are throwaway (the fate of the "entry level" 924) and you can just buy another when it goes bang. 

 

Cheap modern Porsches FS!

 

And as for mechanic's attitudes to cars , well I wouldn't have taken on a 33 yo 928 if I listened to them 

Plenty of people DIYing older Ferraris,  but the often ridiculous parts prices kill any economic rationalism in that milieu.

[Simonoz]

Guess it depends on whether you like making money out of cars? Ive never subscribed to that theory.

I learnt a lesson a long time ago. If you're going to throw big money at a car you love, try to make sure its a car that the general public also love. Early 911's qualify, Boxsters don't unfortunately. Nor do Volvo Amazons which is where my lesson was learned. Ive got a friend here in WA with the worlds best PV444 wagon. Hes into it for $50,000. Be a miracle if he can wriggle out of that, and thats a shame. Its a great car.

Boxster motors are over $20,000 I'm told. No way would I be throwing that at a car that you can buy for $10,000 or less.

Mind you, I would stuff a GT3 motor in a Cayman so what sort of fool am I?

[tazzieman]

Mind you, I would stuff a GT3 motor in a Cayman so what sort of fool am I?

Well a fool and his money are soon apart , so i guess most here are in that sieve-like boat 

 

When you add up the bills , either depreciation+service costs vs old+personal labour cost (you could equate to earnings that could be made elsewhere) the harsh reality is there is very little real profit in motor vehicles.

 

Though I did buy a perfectly good 944 for 2k. 

 

What we view as collectible today may be old hat and impossible to maintain in the style which the manufacturer intended in decades to come. Like you,  I couldn't give a toss. It's a fun hobby and I don't subscribe to the "save everything for retirement" line that the earnest and boring FPs spout. 

 

So whatever floats your boat , it's just some boats have more holes to plug. Like your mate's Volvo.

[Coastr]

The article plugs SCs - which is not breaking new ground.  But the counter argument I always read is that there are so many of them,they'll never have a run up in value.  This might be true - it just depends how many people are chasing one, as a function of how many are available.

 

I do get the Boxster argument - it does seem that because the engine was a new design there are problems.  Note that SC engines also have issues - chain tensioners and exploding airboxes and breaking studs.   So I guess it depends a bit on how it plays out over time,

[SteamWolf]

A year ago there were driveable sub $20k SC's available if you waited and were happy to spin a spanner, and repairable non starters for around $15k.  I've not seen a usable sub $20k SC (targa or 'vert, let alone coupe!) for probably 10 months now, and one broken targa for $16k that pretty much went overnight.  Even broken cars for parts don't turn up anymore.  I think it's like Aussie muscle cars insomuch as when the value climbs, uneconomical repair jobs suddenly become economical and those cars no longer get wrecked for parts.

 

SC prices are climbing rapidly. How high they will go is anyone's guess.

 

It'll be 20 years before early boxsters become collectible - and it'll be because they have all been abused into the ground because they are cheap.

 

There's not so many Caymen around so my guess is they will be the big ticket non-911 item in the future.

[sleazius]

Agree with the Cayman, for the moment its the R that will likely be the hot ticket long term but that could change to the GT4 depending on what spec it has.

[Coastr]

A year ago there were driveable sub $20k SC's available if you waited and were happy to spin a spanner, and repairable non starters for around $15k.  I've not seen a usable sub $20k SC (targa or 'vert, let alone coupe!) for probably 10 months now, and one broken targa for $16k that pretty much went overnight.  Even broken cars for parts don't turn up anymore.  I think it's like Aussie muscle cars insomuch as when the value climbs, uneconomical repair jobs suddenly become economical and those cars no longer get wrecked for parts.

 

SC prices are climbing rapidly. How high they will go is anyone's guess.

 

It'll be 20 years before early boxsters become collectible - and it'll be because they have all been abused into the ground because they are cheap.

 

There's not so many Caymen around so my guess is they will be the big ticket non-911 item in the future.

 

I keep an eye on the US ebay market which is much more liquid than ours.  Most SCs that are reasonable condition (drivable, registered and no obvious flaws) don't reach reserve under $20k.  THat said, not many are selling on ebay either, but you don't know what happens when the auction ends.  At the moment Targas are everywhere and coupes much more rare, and sellers seem to want a premium of several K for them.

[J.J.]

none of the boxsters or caymans will be worth big $$ in my opinion as they are now mass produced cars, where is the rarity? I just cant see it

 

they don't have the race history of early 911's nor are they aircooled or have the famous 911 shape which is where the value is.

[Coastr]

Boxster -> look at the 914.  A small fan club following, good cars retain more than scrap value.

 

Caymans are rare - these will always be bought by someone I would suspect.

 

The problem with all modern cars is the proliferation of electronics and plastics.  Plastics get brittle and fall apart over time and are difficult to repair.  Electronics are pretty durable in most instances but if the factory is the only source, then $$$.  What a lot of people don't realise that most computers in cars nowadays are 'keyed' together - they all talk to each other and if they don't have the right keys, then no work.  In my BMW every computer-  engine, gearbox, body, instrument panel, abs - they all have a thing called the ZKE which is a kind of code made up from the Vin and mileage - swap any computer out for one from another car and it's not going to work unless you use specialised programs to overwrite the binary code.  They all ask each other if they have the right ZKE and don't work if it's not there. I had my immobiliser computer go kaput and the only way to get one is special order from the factory in germany, and special recode on a dealer computer.

 

Not sure if Boxsters/Caymans/996/7 have this type of sophistication (I assume they do) - you'll need to develop serious computer skills to maintain one of these in the future.  It's just another challenge to learn, like rust repair or stud replacement - so maybe it will be OK.  But it will mean that the average person will find uneconomical repairs much earlier in the vehicles life than was the case for older cars.

 

I for one can see Boxsters soon occupying a niche which is centred around the MX5.  I have noticed in the USA modded MX5s are becoming quite a common sight.  Boxsters will probably start to go this route.

[tazzieman]

Exactly Coastr. And I think rapidly evolving technology (hybrid , electric) will quickly kill the 2nd/3nd etc hand market for modern vehicles.

Only true retro (i.e. rebuildable/repairable at reasonable cost) vehicles will keep some variations on the road.

All the time on forums I note the fear of engines grenading. That's the tip of the iceberg of potential problems,  and if you can't lay your hands on the cash to effect repairs , it's going to be a  experience. Which we have seen countless times , and why you rarely see any modern classics on the road. And I predict many of the future Porsche classics won't get driven (as with the  Ferrari scene) because of the cost of maintenance and repair of these cars with very expensive components.

 

Mind you I'm not predicting anything that hasn't been predicted elsewhere.

[SteamWolf]

 

 What a lot of people don't realise that most computers in cars nowadays are 'keyed' together - they all talk to each other and if they don't have the right keys, then no work.  In my BMW every computer-  engine, gearbox, body, instrument panel, abs - they all have a thing called the ZKE which is a kind of code made up from the Vin and mileage - swap any computer out for one from another car and it's not going to work unless you use specialised programs to overwrite the binary code.  They all ask each other if they have the right ZKE and don't work if it's not there. I had my immobiliser computer go kaput and the only way to get one is special order from the factory in germany, and special recode on a dealer computer.

 

 

 

 

I don't really agree with this. All that happens is the tools change.  Instead of a handful of specialist screwdrivers and vacuum balancers to tune carbs, a specialist electronic gizmo is used to tune the EFI.  The older the cars become, the more common knowledge around them is developed by forums like this, and the cheaper the specialist electronics become.

 

20 years ago the cheapest decent aftermarket ECU was a $4k proposition. Now it's less than a grand. The multi-computer setups in cars as early as the 1994 nissan Maxima is now well understood, as is everything but current generation Mercedes, BMW and so on has all been cracked by aftermarket.  Even the humble Ford and GM factory ECUs have been cracked and are now programmable with aftermarket tuning gear.

 

There are even complete wiring and computer replacement kits for the top end BMW and MErcedes that eliminate all of the factory stuff.

 

Yes, it becomes more complex, but no, it won't be impossible or even overly difficult in the future.

[Coastr]

I watched the Drive episode on the i8 last night.

 

All the time I was thinking : these things are DEAD when they get out of warranty.

 

You can buy an 850 for chump change - and they are barely 20 years old.   The 850 itself is pretty robust - and shares a lot of componentry with lesser models , but mid 90s computer technology + V12 = scary.  The cars themselves are not interesting or noteworthy enough to attract serious interest (no motorsport background, no posters on bedroom walls) - so they all slide to inevitable scrapping or parting and will disappear except for a select few.

 

For the i8 - throw in a turbocharged 3 cylinder engine, battery pack, electric motor, exotic construction materials (makes 959 look like a backyard project) and computers to keep it all talking to each other.  There will be some guru somewhere in the world who will be able to keep them working, but seriously, they aren't turning up to racetracks any day soon.  And so, apart from some museum examples, they'll all end up not going, or cannibalised for parts to keep others on the road.  It's unlikely an enthusiast following will develop because of the doubtless sky high price and extreme out of warranty running costs.

 

Ask yourself when was the last time you saw an XJS on the road?  By modern standards, it's an analogue simpleton.  But they just aren't interesting enough, and they even have motorsport history in Group A (A bathurst winner, no less!)

 

The number of cars destined to be classics is a select few.  Out of the modern era, the real contender is the GTR and some WRX style cars, as well as the usual Porsches and Ferraris.  I really see few others making it.

[Coastr]

I don't really agree with this. All that happens is the tools change.  Instead of a handful of specialist screwdrivers and vacuum balancers to tune carbs, a specialist electronic gizmo is used.  The older the cars become, the more common knowledge around them is developed by forums like this, and the cheaper the specialist electronics become.

 

20 years ago the cheapest decent aftermarket ECU was a $4k proposition. Now it's less than a grand. The multi-computer setups in cars as early as the 1994 Maximus is now well understood, as is everything but current generation Mercedes, BMW and so on.  Even the humble Ford and GM factory ECUs have been cracked and are now programmable with aftermarket gear.

 

Yes, it becomes more complex, but no, it won't be impossible or even overly difficult in the future.

 

I think you miss my point - it's not that they can't be fixed - I agreed that it is a skill that will be developed - it's that uneconomical repairs while the vehicle is at a value and desirability low-ebb will mean many get taken off the road.

 

The key in your reply is the 'forums'.  If a car attracts a following - sure, techniques and aftermarket parts get developed and it's no problem.  But if they disappear or fail to capture a following while they are new(ish) then they are goners.  

 

I find it hard enough with the BMW now to get sense out of forums.  Where once sensible discussions could be had, more often than not those people have moved on and what is left is young guys wanting cut price fixes and are more interesting in 'slamming' the car than figuring out how to replace a failing ABS computer.  The most common advice I see is 'get some black tape over the warning light'.

 

It 's the lack of followers that kills cars, rather than a lack of technology.

[SteamWolf]

 The cars themselves are not interesting or noteworthy enough to attract serious interest .

 

Well, there's your problem right there!

 

 

 

 

 

Ask yourself when was the last time you saw an XJS on the road?  

 

I was actually admiring one at lunch time today! Sorry  

 

 

 

 

 

Ask yourself when was the last time you saw an XJS on the road?  By modern standards, it's an analogue simpleton.  But they just aren't interesting enough, and they even have motorsport history in Group A (A bathurst winner, no less!)

 

The number of cars destined to be classics is a select few.  Out of the modern era, the real contender is the GTR and some WRX style cars, as well as the usual Porsches and Ferraris.  I really see few others making it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The number of cars destined to be classics is a select few.  Out of the modern era, the real contender is the GTR and some WRX style cars, as well as the usual Porsches and Ferraris.  I really see few others making it.

 

 

Agreed. I'd add the Toyotabaru BRZ/FT86 to the list but not much else.

[SteamWolf]

 

 

It 's the lack of followers that kills cars, rather than a lack of technology.

 

I agree totally, and your last point is the real kicker.  Cars in general and in particular motorsport has been victimised by the media for decades now, which has a direct impact on people wanting to be involved with them.  All that's left is the faux-fashionistas like the flat-brim brigade and the bulk of the motoring public that think of them as an expensive whitegood.

[tazzieman]

Let's be honest , if the air cooled 911s weren't air cooled , and weren't talked up as iconic (a result of motorsport prowess at a certain point in history) they would be viewed quite differently. And as has been observed , that if were not for Air Cooled Elitism  , other Porsche cars like the cleansheet 928 would be worshipped (e.g. if it had a BMW badge).

[Coastr]

You mean like the 635csi? Those are mighty cheap these days as well.

Even if you do follow Motorsport these days, the cars you see racing are inevitably silhouette racers.

Like anything else, cars compete for mindshare. My first car was a ticket to freedom, independence adulthood, and it was intoxicating. I anticipated my first car like some girls anticipate their wedding dress. There was never any chance at all of getting the keys to the family car - I had to get my own.

These days, I see very few young guys going through that. Sure, some do, there are notable exceptions. But when I turned 16/17 it was all anyone ever talked about - getting a car, making it yours. Nowadays I see kids using their parents car, shunning ownership, or even shunning getting a licence because it costs so much time and money. Maybe it's because it's simple for people to just stay living at home for much longer. Maybe it's because old bangers are much cheaper to buy now than they used to be. I have two nephews who just got theirs first cars (one was the ex-family car). They are never washed ,cared for or even discussed in passing. Automotive white goods. They just have so many other things to take up their interest.

I guess anecdotes don't make data, but the overall impression of classic cars is that they will become more like art - some artists are 'in' and collectible. Some artists have fine paintings but aren't 'in' and aren't collectible. The range of cars that will a,is the cut will get narrower rather than broader over time.

[hugh]

Please excuse the thread hi-jack, just find it an interesting conversation and wanted to chime in................

For me I don't see many 'current' or modern cars ever having the appeal or collectibility of an older car. There are the typical reasons for this in terms of smaller production runs etc. but to me the main thing here is to do with era.

Music, art, architecture you name it - all have a moment in time that most people will agree is defined as 'their best' that no other subsequent era has been able to match in terms of influence. Cars are no different and to me you can't go past the 70's to define the peak of motoring excellence in its purist form.

I'm not saying that cars haven't go better because they most certainly have in terms of efficiency, safety, technology etc. but the 70's is where manufactures were pushing boundaries for the pure pursuit to make the best cars - and not necessarily the most profitable. It's no surprise that time after time the 73 RS is used as the yard stick and when you put it into context given the era you just can't replicate that now. Too many things have changed and I would love to say in 40 years the 918 will be as highly regarded but it's unlikely due to how quickly technology becomes superseded and renders anything new pretty much useless.

Not saying that current cars won't be appreciated but I feel that very few (if any) will be held in the same regard as the 'originals' and hence why the early air cooled 911's are becoming the ones to have (see actually managed to get things back on topic!). Please don't see this as a dig on water cooled cars etc. it's just my more idealistic observation that I believe is the bigger picture in regards to this whole collectible car business/proposition.

Having said that, a car that makes you smile every time you drive it is priceless and these come in many forms, mine just happens to be the humble little old 911.

[LeeM]

Well said Hugh

I had a funny chat with a client that bought a new Audi A4 or 5 recently.

He was giving me crap about my 4cylinder 912 is worth when its finished. I replied 'I dunno mate, $40 to $50k maybe?'

I then asked what his run of the mill Audi would be worth in 10 or 20 years?

Lets just say I don't think I'm top of his Xmas card list now! It shut him up anyway

To me, buying a 911, or a Lambo Miura etc, youre buying history, and moreso, soul!

I dont think that will ever be replicated.

[hugh]

^^^ happens all the time.........

I have a good mate whom after hearing I bought the 964 asked "couldn't you have bought a newer one?". My response was that I can buy a newer one whenever I want but the opportunity to have this one is becoming rarer. If I decide in a year or two to buy a 997 then I'm sure there will be a selection of cars on the market, harder to see this happening if you want an older model hence values are rising as a result.

Another good mate just picked up a beautiful new AMG that again is a really nice car but he will have it for a couple of years and sell it for peanuts - shame really but that is a sign of the times.

[sleazius]

Please excuse the thread hi-jack, just find it an interesting conversation and wanted to chime in................

For me I don't see many 'current' or modern cars ever having the appeal or collectibility of an older car. There are the typical reasons for this in terms of smaller production runs etc. but to me the main thing here is to do with era.

Music, art, architecture you name it - all have a moment in time that most people will agree is defined as 'their best' that no other subsequent era has been able to match in terms of influence. Cars are no different and to me you can't go past the 70's to define the peak of motoring excellence in its purist form.

I'm not saying that cars haven't go better because they most certainly have in terms of efficiency, safety, technology etc. but the 70's is where manufactures were pushing boundaries for the pure pursuit to make the best cars - and not necessarily the most profitable. It's no surprise that time after time the 73 RS is used as the yard stick and when you put it into context given the era you just can't replicate that now. Too many things have changed and I would love to say in 40 years the 918 will be as highly regarded but it's unlikely due to how quickly technology becomes superseded and renders anything new pretty much useless.

Not saying that current cars won't be appreciated but I feel that very few (if any) will be held in the same regard as the 'originals' and hence why the early air cooled 911's are becoming the ones to have (see actually managed to get things back on topic!). Please don't see this as a dig on water cooled cars etc. it's just my more idealistic observation that I believe is the bigger picture in regards to this whole collectible car business/proposition.

Having said that, a car that makes you smile every time you drive it is priceless and these come in many forms, mine just happens to be the humble little old 911.

 

Can't agree with this.

 

The only reason that we're seeing a spike in values is because baby boomers world wide are retiring, and these are the cars that they lusted after as young men. Waited their whole life to get one, and decide what the hell? That coupled with limited availability and you have a boom market.

 

If this argument held water why aren't cars from the 30s worth mega bucks? Because everyone who lusted after them is dead, thats why. The same thing will happen with the majority of 70s p cars down the line. Values will plummet because very few people my age (or younger) will bother to own them.

 

Rare or limited models like the '73 RS, sure, they'll hold value, possibly even go up because it is iconic. Everything else will crash back to where it was before all this began a few years ago.

 

Lets not even discuss what will happen if regulators decide that petrol cars are banned world wide to save the environment.

[StevepGT3]

Can't agree with this.

 

The only reason that we're seeing a spike in values is because baby boomers world wide are retiring, and these are the cars that they lusted after as young men. Waited their whole life to get one, and decide what the hell? That coupled with limited availability and you have a boom market.

 

If this argument held water why aren't cars from the 30s worth mega bucks? Because everyone who lusted after them is dead, thats why. The same thing will happen with the majority of 70s p cars down the line. Values will plummet because very few people my age (or younger) will bother to own them.

 

Rare or limited models like the '73 RS, sure, they'll hold value, possibly even go up because it is iconic. Everything else will crash back to where it was before all this began a few years ago.

 

Lets not even discuss what will happen if regulators decide that petrol cars are banned world wide to save the environment.

The High end cars from the 30`s ARE worth megamegamegamegabucks, shit boxes from the 30`s are worth what current shitboxes will be worth in years to come