Clean Energy Disruption

[Pork Chops]

It's an hour long and the title sounds boring but I assure you it's anything but.  You may want to consider whether you sink $200k + into a new ICE vehicle that will have little economic value in the near future.  And don't invest in car parks, petrochemical companies, nor traditional car manufacturers, not energy utilities, and certainly do not start a career as a chauffeur.  Be interesting to see what happens to American foreign policy when they no longer need to control the world's oil supply.

Also begs the question what is the future of classic ICE cars.  On the plus side they will become a thing of the past and therefore adding to their attraction, but where to drive them on roads that are designed for driverless cars?

[GUT]

Very interesting - thanks for posting

[MFX]

Very interesting concept. He is definitely has a point with EV's being the way of the future, and autonomously driven cars, but there are a few things that still need to be factored in to his equation. Those of us here for example, who are enthusiasts, will always want to drive for the joy of it. That said a lot of us would probably be happy to be in a driverless car on our commute.

Private car ownership will still be around for quite a while though. You have to look at people like tradies, who are going to need to have their own vehicles as you are not going to pile your tools into an uber. The other thing that doesn't factor in, is status. Cars are also a status symbol. I mean lets face it, no one needs to drive a $1m Rolls Royce, or to daily drive a Porsche for that matter. 

Looking at his predictions, I can see that all of this is much closer than we are ready to accept, but we will adapt to it like everything else. 

[Rob]

Enjoyed the presso, yes it is coming!  Great presenter too!  Thanks for posting.

[Pork Chops]

Very interesting concept. He is definitely has a point with EV's being the way of the future, and autonomously driven cars, but there are a few things that still need to be factored in to his equation. Those of us here for example, who are enthusiasts, will always want to drive for the joy of it. That said a lot of us would probably be happy to be in a driverless car on our commute.

Private car ownership will still be around for quite a while though. You have to look at people like tradies, who are going to need to have their own vehicles as you are not going to pile your tools into an uber. The other thing that doesn't factor in, is status. Cars are also a status symbol. I mean lets face it, no one needs to drive a $1m Rolls Royce, or to daily drive a Porsche for that matter. 

Looking at his predictions, I can see that all of this is much closer than we are ready to accept, but we will adapt to it like everything else. 

Yes, I get your points, but for the sake of argument (this is the internet after all), I suspect that enthusiast drivers will be in the vast minority and unfortunately I can see us becoming more marginalised.  Common folk just want to get from A to B and especially at 10% of the cost of car ownership and considering all the 'productive' things you can do when you're not piloting the car (Facebook!!!).  As far as status is concerned, in a world when car ownership is 10 times more expensive, and frankly not supported by society anymore we'll will find something else to cling onto as an outward sign of our greater importance than our fellow humans.  Perhaps handbags or something.  Also we've already got Uber X and Black, fast and slow boarding lanes for the plane, so I suspect their will be plenty of scope for differentiation for those who have the money and the desire to be different, even with a shared service model for vehicle transport.  As long as people have cash to spend someone will be there to take it from them with a perceived higher value offering.  We may all have VR goggles and we'll be able to programme our goggles (at a suitable cost) to make our shared rides look like a Porsche or Roller so we enjoy the aesthetic benefits of the interior and the envy of those who 'see' our prestige designs from the outside...

I do struggle to see how tradies will get on, or even mothers as our family van is loaded with 'essentials' to allow us to comfortably transport our spawn.  But that is not a reason all of this won't happen as there are compelling fundamentals that will drive the change.

I think it's a matter of how and by when it will happen, and one of the messages the presenter had was once these things reach the critical mass (or convergence) point they are adopted rapidly, almost like a switch was thrown.  Be interesting to see when that points arrives and how it all plays out.

[LeeM]

 Just like market forecasting....speculative! They can't guarantee a damn thing

 All these EV and self driven cars, where one can say is actually 100% effective, safe and reliable, is a LONG way off. 

 

[MFX]

Yes, I get your points, but for the sake of argument (this is the internet after all), I suspect that enthusiast drivers will be in the vast minority and unfortunately I can see us becoming more marginalised.  Common folk just want to get from A to B and especially at 10% of the cost of car ownership and considering all the 'productive' things you can do when you're not piloting the car (Facebook!!!).  As far as status is concerned, in a world when car ownership is 10 times more expensive, and frankly not supported by society anymore we'll will find something else to cling onto as an outward sign of our greater importance than our fellow humans.  Perhaps handbags or something.  Also we've already got Uber X and Black, fast and slow boarding lanes for the plane, so I suspect their will be plenty of scope for differentiation for those who have the money and the desire to be different, even with a shared service model for vehicle transport.  As long as people have cash to spend someone will be there to take it from them with a perceived higher value offering.  We may all have VR goggles and we'll be able to programme our goggles (at a suitable cost) to make our shared rides look like a Porsche or Roller so we enjoy the aesthetic benefits of the interior and the envy of those who 'see' our prestige designs from the outside...

I do struggle to see how tradies will get on, or even mothers as our family van is loaded with 'essentials' to allow us to comfortably transport our spawn.  But that is not a reason all of this won't happen as there are compelling fundamentals that will drive the change.

I think it's a matter of how and by when it will happen, and one of the messages the presenter had was once these things reach the critical mass (or convergence) point they are adopted rapidly, almost like a switch was thrown.  Be interesting to see when that points arrives and how it all plays out.

I think at least for the foreseeable future we will still have private car ownership, but it will be quite different to the way it is now. I think most households may own 1 car instead of 2 or more. So the weekly commute, etc, will all be in the autonomous uber. We will still need private vehicles for things like you suggested kids stuff, tradies, etc. People like ourselves, enthusiasts, will still have our weekend cars. at least until it becomes illegal to self drive on the street, as it is too dangerous. Although that could still probably get worked around by technology, letting you drive the car, but it will take over completely to avoid accidents. It will more than likely get to the stage, where you can only drive a car on a track.

It will be interesting to see where classic cars fall. At the moment they are all the rage, with people spending millions on classic cars. Will they need to be retrofitted with autonomous aids so you can still have them on the road?

Either way, I think a big change is coming, and it will be here sooner than we think.

[OZ930]

Interesting.

If vehicle costs are going to reduce by 90%, but the cars are going to be utilised 60 to 80 of the time, up from 4% utilisation, an increase of 2000% the savings are ? How many sets of tyres is that ?

The other thing to consider is where is the government going to raise revenue?  Will speeding and parking fines be a thing of the past?

Overall though, it sounds like an exciting disruption !

 

[KGB]

Interesting.

If vehicle costs are going to reduce by 90%, but the cars are going to be utilised 60 to 80 of the time, up from 4% utilisation, an increase of 2000% the savings are ? How many sets of tyres is that ?

 

Did the maths include peak hour am + pm?

[OZ930]

Did the maths include peak hour am + pm?

from his brief, I believe it was based on an average of 12000 miles (talking to yanks so assume miles) per year regardless of time of day, regardless of how much time you are in the car in peak hour traffic or sitting in the car, in the garage, making engine noises......which in the future will be ??

Another thought:

"I can't go to the SMT today, so I will just send the car out for drive"

or

the car gets bored sitting in the garage and organises it's own SMT with other driverless cars.

??

[MFX]

Did the maths include peak hour am + pm?

He was basing things on everyone using something like Uber, and as is apparently already an option, of ride sharing your Uber with other passengers for a discounted fare. I can see people being happy to take an autonomous Uber to work every day, and maybe with ride sharing it will then let you take the car pool lanes. Although I can see dedicated autonomous lanes being the rule in the not too distant future.

[KGB]

Nature has a way of balancing things, I reckon the fast lane of the future will be the old fashioned, self drive, dinosaur burners lane!

[Redracn]

Interesting.

If vehicle costs are going to reduce by 90%, but the cars are going to be utilised 60 to 80 of the time, up from 4% utilisation, an increase of 2000% the savings are ? How many sets of tyres is that ?

The other thing to consider is where is the government going to raise revenue?  Will speeding and parking fines be a thing of the past?

Overall though, it sounds like an exciting disruption !

 

I guess we can assume the new gen car is good for a few million km then or will it need to be scrapped after a couple of months use. While current cars may have a low utilization they are still worn out at end of their useful life. So what savings exactly? Or is this just bull like most green scams?

[Pork Chops]

I guess we can assume the new gen car is good for a few million km then or will it need to be scrapped after a couple of months use. While current cars may have a low utilization they are still worn out at end of their useful life. So what savings exactly? Or is this just bull like most green scams?

With very few moving parts compared to an ICE, I'd expect EVs to have a much longer life span from an engineering perspective.  Consumables will be brakes and tyres, but in autonomous cars brakes will hardly be taxed and can be designed to much lower levels (they will never do 200km/h or have to do an emergency stop).  Perhaps keeping them looking up-to-date, or the interiors in good condition will be the challenge.  Perhaps under these new realities panels and interiors will be designed and built to be economically replaced over a longer serviceable use period than current cars.  Less waste, less embodied energy, more enduring product.  The only car that has ever been mechanically and aesthetically enduring is....drum roll.....the Porsche 911 (let the arguments begin).  Be nice to have a longer life from things that consume so much of what is scarce.

[Redracn]

With very few moving parts compared to an ICE, I'd expect EVs to have a much longer life span from an engineering perspective.  Consumables will be brakes and tyres, but in autonomous cars brakes will hardly be taxed and can be designed to much lower levels (they will never do 200km/h or have to do an emergency stop).  Perhaps keeping them looking up-to-date, or the interiors in good condition will be the challenge.  Perhaps under these new realities panels and interiors will be designed and built to be economically replaced over a longer serviceable use period than current cars.  Less waste, less embodied energy, more enduring product.  The only car that has ever been mechanically and aesthetically enduring is....drum roll.....the Porsche 911 (let the arguments begin).  Be nice to have a longer life from things that consume so much of what is scarce.

There is a lot more to vehicle life than the number of moving parts. Also the number of moving parts has little to do with the useful life. Metal fatigue is one that the non moving parts will fail from. Also items to make it driverless have a limited life such as power steering motors, brakes actuators etc. these all have moving parts. Even the main electric motors will not last forever as the insulation breaks down and the mechanical movement of the motor windings wears into the insulation. Expected life of the (non moving) electronics is less than 20 years and likely shorter when expressed as MTBF (mean time between failure).

Batteries are currently short lived and a major expense. With no sign of any change to this situation. 

I dont buy that the car would never be required to emergency stop. 

I have not seen any creditable analysis that shows the real cost/person/km traveled will reduce at a greater rate than it has been.

If anything these types of vehicles will be regarded as even more consumable just like most consumer electronics. After all in the future how many people would want to ride in a 5 year old uber with its primitive safety? In fact it could be regulated of the road due to incompatability with the newer cars. So we end up with cars being removed from the road when an iOS is introduced that they are not compatible with. History has taught us that the technology used at the introduction will quickly be made redundant 

 

[MFX]

There is a lot more to vehicle life than the number of moving parts. Also the number of moving parts has little to do with the useful life. Metal fatigue is one that the non moving parts will fail from. Also items to make it driverless have a limited life such as power steering motors, brakes actuators etc. these all have moving parts. Even the main electric motors will not last forever as the insulation breaks down and the mechanical movement of the motor windings wears into the insulation. Expected life of the (non moving) electronics is less than 20 years and likely shorter when expressed as MTBF (mean time between failure).

Batteries are currently short lived and a major expense. With no sign of any change to this situation. 

I dont buy that the car would never be required to emergency stop. 

I have not seen any creditable analysis that shows the real cost/person/km traveled will reduce at a greater rate than it has been.

If anything these types of vehicles will be regarded as even more consumable just like most consumer electronics. After all in the future how many people would want to ride in a 5 year old uber with its primitive safety? In fact it could be regulated of the road due to incompatability with the newer cars. So we end up with cars being removed from the road when an iOS is introduced that they are not compatible with. History has taught us that the technology used at the introduction will quickly be made redundant 

 

The fact is with most people it comes down to cost, and if the cost of the EV to buy is much lower than an ICE, AND it has almost no servicing costs, it doesn't matter if it is dead in 10 years. Even now with most ICE vehicles, they are probably only worth 10%-20% of their new value after 10 years, and they had $x in maintenance along the way.

[P-Kay]

As the presenter mentioned, these are nothing more than large computers, therefore it will simply be a 'patch upgrade' to comply with the current safety standards. 

Who knows, we are talking about a possible future. To be fair, most likely.....I for one will still be burning fossil fuel, steering my own vehicle and selling my utility stocks (that do not diversify into renewable energy) to buy into one of the battery farms  

[Redracn]

As the presenter mentioned, these are nothing more than large computers, therefore it will simply be a 'patch upgrade' to comply with the current safety standards. 

Who knows, we are talking about a possible future. To be fair, most likely.....I for one will still be burning fossil fuel, steering my own vehicle and selling my utility stocks (that do not diversify into renewable energy) to buy into one of the battery farms  

Large computers quickly become old slow computers incapable of being upgraded to run the latest software acceptably making the patch upgrade a non viable option when more than a few years old. How does your older onboard $3000 nav system compare with the latest $200 offering from Garmin or any number of iPad apps? How many of us have the GSM telephone module fitted? The day Telstra shuts down its GSM network is very close now.

While dreaming about a fantasy future is great you can not aviod the real world issues in trying to achieve it.

[Redracn]

The fact is with most people it comes down to cost, and if the cost of the EV to buy is much lower than an ICE, AND it has almost no servicing costs, it doesn't matter if it is dead in 10 years. Even now with most ICE vehicles, they are probably only worth 10%-20% of their new value after 10 years, and they had $x in maintenance along the way.

I place no faith in fantasy cost predictions based on unrealistic assumptions. 

Most of the servicing cost of ICE these days is related to inspection all of which will apply equally to an EV. The biggest differance is engine oil and filter as the rest of the transmission is often fill for life. They both need wiper blades and fluid, headlight alignment check, cabin pollen filter etc etc etc in fact the testing to ensure the autonomous systems are working could be extensive regarless of the power source. 

People also seem to overlook new maintenance issues that arrise with EV. The electrical plug on the vehicle and connector on the cable have a limited life and will require regular cleaning and scheduled replacement. It will require regular inspection of its wiring and battery for wear and damage just like the computer or coffee machine in any office has to be tagged to show it is safe to use. 

[Pork Chops]

Mercedes' top guy from the 2016 Paris motor show.  Basically telling the same story but from a manufacturer's perspective.  'They will be ready when you are' which means they don't know exactly when the switch will flip, but they know when it does they'd better be ready to go or get left behind forever.  Check out how well thought through they are on the future of the car, and on the concepts presented in the first video.  Yes, it's a slick sales pitch from an unfunny German guy, but the best you can say is it may not happen immediately, but happen it will.  ICE is totally dead.  Just a matter of when.

[LeeM]

  Don't think I'd want to go for a long drive in an EV, and end up in Wallongskippybolongong in the middle of nowhere and need a charge! 

 Plenty of reasons why they're a good idea,  yet plenty of reasons why they'll be an utter pain in the arse too. Glad I'll never be forced to buy an EV car in my lifetime

[Pork Chops]

An interesting view on the future of oil, how some oil producers are responding to the threat of declining demand and ultimately a view on what will bring about the end of transport driven oil demand.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21710634-glimpse-post-oil-era-when-oil-no-longer-demand?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/whenoilisnolongerindemand

  Don't think I'd want to go for a long drive in an EV, and end up in Wallongskippybolongong in the middle of nowhere and need a charge! 

 Plenty of reasons why they're a good idea,  yet plenty of reasons why they'll be an utter pain in the arse too. Glad I'll never be forced to buy an EV car in my lifetime

Hey Lee, just for fun, how come you think EVs will be crap?  Consumers will never buy crap stuff, especially discerning ones, and there will be just as many gear heads in the future as now (note I can't call them petrol heads).  They are going to be awesome in ways we just can't imagine yet.  Catalytic converters didn't ruin anything.  Nor did the banning of leaded fuel.  Nor the imposition of higher emission standards.  P1, La Ferrari, 918 are all stepping stones to the future of high performance cars.  Have you driven a Tesla?  They fast as fk and really impressive, and boring too, but that could be fixed by the right manufacturer.  And assuming you're not a lot older than me I wouldn't bet against EVs being a big part of your life.  Embrace change.  Embrace the future.

[Redracn]

Consumers will never buy crap stuff, especially discerning ones, 

What about the trendy, virtue signaling look at me ones? To me they seem to have no issues with buying crap as long as it gets their message across. 

[Pork Chops]

What about the trendy, virtue signaling look at me ones? To me they seem to have no issues with buying crap as long as it gets their message across. 

Certain sectors of the market will be appealed to via their vanity.  No different to now, nor as it's ever been.  The one thing that will endure is human nature.  But to draw an analogy, it wasn't the internet that changed the world, it was how we access it via smartphones.  So Apple's iPhone was so appealing that it was rapidly adopted and heralded huge change.  An equivalent will come along in car terms.  Like the model T did back in the day when horses were replaced due to their fouling.

But I suspect on this topic we will not agree, which is great as what good is the internet without an 'argument' with a stranger! (or boobs).

[Redracn]

From the info out there it is easy to come to the conclusion that all the ground breaking features being associated with so called electric cars are only and will only be available on electric cars. This is of course complete rubbish. None of this future tech like autopilot is dependent on how the energy used for propulsion is stored onboard the vehicle. 

Ford disrupted by making cheap cars. His disruptive tech was the production line not the car.

Smart phones made it on their own merit as do all genuine disruptive technologies. Any tech that requires to govenerment to steal from the poor to reduce the price for the virtue signaling rich is rubbish technology for a lot of reasons. Governments should not try to pick winners as they never git it right. We the consumers pick the winners.