Clean Energy Disruption

[LeeM]

An interesting view on the future of oil, how some oil producers are responding to the threat of declining demand and ultimately a view on what will bring about the end of transport driven oil demand.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21710634-glimpse-post-oil-era-when-oil-no-longer-demand?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/whenoilisnolongerindemand

Hey Lee, just for fun, how come you think EVs will be crap?  Consumers will never buy crap stuff, especially discerning ones, and there will be just as many gear heads in the future as now (note I can't call them petrol heads).  They are going to be awesome in ways we just can't imagine yet.  Catalytic converters didn't ruin anything.  Nor did the banning of leaded fuel.  Nor the imposition of higher emission standards.  P1, La Ferrari, 918 are all stepping stones to the future of high performance cars.  Have you driven a Tesla?  They fast as fk and really impressive, and boring too, but that could be fixed by the right manufacturer.  And assuming you're not a lot older than me I wouldn't bet against EVs being a big part of your life.  Embrace change.  Embrace the future.

 

For my reasons above mate :-)

As stated, they have their place in society, though I'm old school, and enjoy the IC engine feel and noise.

 I'd own a hybrid if it was what you have mentioned with a 918 etc, though with a solely electric powered car, your range is limited. Unless you use it for commuting to and from the office, then its a good thing for the environment running the car, yet what byproducts are being produced to build the L ion batteries etc? How much fossil fuel does it burn to actually charge the thing at home? Battery life? Battery disposal? 

 I don't think its crap really, I just think it has major flaws for a car nut to enjoy the raw feel of a fossil fuel driven car. I can't even watch the Formula E racing mate! :-) 

 All good, we all have our opinions, and I respect anyone elses on the topic

[Redracn]

I have been looking everywhere for "Clean Energy" but it seems there is no such thing and It would be easier to locate some unicorn poop. 

First what is clean? Lets call anything with carbon in it dirty like the colorless odorless gas CO2  (which is plant food and not the slightest bit dirty) and so it seems clean means no Carbon emitted. 

Problem is that plenty of Carbon in the form of CO2 is released in the manufacture, installation, maintenance and disposal of windmills and solar installations etc. So if we add up all the CO2 emmited in the lifecycle we can come up with an amount emmitted per unit of energy produced during that lifecycle. You can then compare the amount of Carbon each generation technology is responsible for emitting for each unit of energy it generates. So currently all forms of energy generation are DIRTY by the definition above and it is just a matter of varying degrees of dirtiness. 

Of course if anyone has found "Clean Energy" please let me know. ?

[GUT]

I can't wait for cheap, reliable, clean, beasty EV's.

I want one.

But I reckon my heart will belong to a smelly, noisy, inefficient, manual gearboxed car of yesteryear.

These EV's will go faster, handle better, last longer, cost less etc etc. But I don't think I'll have as much fun in one. Might just get a Playstation 8.

[Redracn]

These EV's will go faster, handle better, last longer, cost less etc etc. 

This just triggered my BS filter? But happy to be PROVED Wrong based on actual facts.

I assume the vehicles being referred to use a battery as the sole energy storage medium. So unless there is a 10x improvement in battery tech and a big price reduction then faster=false as you will need to make over 1000KW for many minutes to exceed 435kph. Handle better=false. Just to heavy as any reasonable battery capacity is heavy which is the enemy of handling. Last longer=false. The batteries will not last past 10 years and their capacity decreases with every charge cycle. The electric motors also have a limited life as do the electronics. In fact the older cars last the longest. Cost Less=false. Just check out the current prices. 

We are realy only comparing the energy storage method as the rest can be made identically and any progress in one applied to another. 

[GUT]

Could be right. 

I'm gonna hold onto some of the old junk just in case :)

[DJM]

Fascinating.  You'd be a brave man to bet against it and invest in Wilson Parking......

Being in the new home building game, when do we start designing homes without garages.....?  Do we design in battery storage rooms instead. As for tradies, at some point they'll no longer head to sites to build homes as we'll inevitably move toward a factory built model like Japan.

PS my caravan is loaded ready for Xmas holidays but Uber tell me they don't have a tow vehicle........oh well, another obsolete vehicle, we'll book a hotel room instead.

im actually quite surprised that so few people seemingly care what transports them from A to B.  The wide variety of cars on the road and the huge number of premium/luxury vehicles about would suggest a lot of people care a lot about what they drive and how they are perceived as a result.  I suppose that can be substituted with some other status symbol but wow, it's going to be a massive shift in society and industry.  What about autobarn, super cheap auto, car dealers, maintenance workshops, tyre shops etc.  all obsolete or aligned to industry not retail customers. 

Its hard to imagine riding in an automated Tesla 3 to work every day.  But I suppose horse riding commuters in New York thought the same and 13 years later they all had cars.

[firstone]

They'll all be made in China so they're affordable, but explosive like the hover boards. ?

[Pork Chops]

Its hard to imagine riding in an automated Tesla 3 to work every day.  But I suppose horse riding commuters in New York thought the same and 13 years later they all had cars.

Exactly.  We're at, or near to an inflection point.  Embrace the inevitable future.  Glad you're across the factory / modular / prefab thing as I think that and BIM will be the big disrupters to construction.  I'm mean what sense does it make to build houses on site all over the place in the weather, with unionised site labour costs, out of sticks of pine.  Must be political forces stopping that change as why else would we not be doing it.  It'll come around.  Modscape & Hickory are doing a great job already.

[Redracn]

I wonder what EV truck will be hauling freight all over the country including those prefab houses. It could coin a new term "House Miles" guess the local suppliers and business will go broke. 

We should start closing down the commuter train and bus services now to creat demand for EVs as that is the only currently viable application for them. Short range urban commuting.

This is great for us country folk and petrol heads everywhere as we get to use the liquid fuel while others glide to and from work in a mind numbing appliance just to ensure the fuel supply will last longer.  

Your appliance will also be dynamically programmed by a central computer to stop and pick up others along the way (you will have no say in this) to ensure maximum utilization of the road network as well as the repurposed rail corridors. 

Yep just around the corner. 

[Pork Chops]

^^ so it's all a load of bollocks? Nothing resonates with you? None of it can or will happen? There is no chance of change and life will continue to go on like today forever? I post black you says it's white I post black you say it's white? Lalalala, head in the sand you're wrong mate.

I wonder what your alternative views are, other than the academics and published journalists working for reputed organisations and leaders of industry not knowing what they're on about, compared to, say, you.

[Redracn]

^^ so it's all a load of bollocks? Nothing resonates with you? None of it can or will happen? There is no chance of change and life will continue to go on like today forever? I post black you says it's white I post black you say it's white? Lalalala, head in the sand you're wrong mate.

I wonder what your alternative views are, other than the academics and published journalists working for reputed organisations and leaders of industry not knowing what they're on about, compared to, say, you.

Don't be so silly of course things will advance.?

Clean Energy ? What exactly is clean energy but a feel good term. While you need to define clean I put it to you that given its popular meaning there is no such thing as clean energy. I have also been waiting 30 years for a disruptive advancement in battery tech and I am still waiting. Yes there have been advances but they are small and incremental and mostly in manufacturing.

Of course it is up to you to purchase any tech you want but you should be paying the full unsubsidized price and not expect me or anyone else to make a contribution so you can get it cheaper. Let the free market decide the winners. 

Academics and Journalists? perhaps you should ask the Engineers the people that actually get stuff done in the real world.?

[bumble]

 

Don't be so silly of course things will advance.?

Clean Energy ? What exactly is clean energy but a feel good term. While you need to define clean I put it to you that given its popular meaning there is no such thing as clean energy. I have also been waiting 30 years for a disruptive advancement in battery tech and I am still waiting. Yes there have been advances but they are small and incremental and mostly in manufacturing.

Of course it is up to you to purchase any tech you want but you should be paying the full unsubsidized price and not expect me or anyone else to make a contribution so you can get it cheaper. Let the free market decide the winners. 

Academics and Journalists? perhaps you should ask the Engineers the people that actually get stuff done in the real world.?

Agree absolutely...  It's about time a few people who should know better started to get a grip on reality.  Unfortunately, engineers are hopeless at getting coherent messages across to dim-witted politicians and the gullible hoi-poloi.

EVs - have been a miserable commercial failure.  Where are the squadrons of Volts and Leafs?  Nowhere is where.  Even Tesla is seriously in the red in aggregate.  Performance?  These things are a one trick pony.  Once you've done your acceleration trick a couple of times, better keep an eye out for a power point somewhere.  I have yet to see one drive from Sydney to Wakefield Park, spend a day on the track and drive back - and I doubt I will for at least 20 years.  Perhaps sir would like to tow his boat/car/horse trailer to an event somewhere beyond the city limits and tow it back again?  Oh dear...  The problem, of course, is energy density.  With current battery tech, an EV battery would have to be larger than the vehicle to contain as much energy as a tank of gas (petrol).  Unless or until there is a step-change in battery tech, these things will remain a niche product for inner city latte sippers, feel gooders and various other moral signalers.  If such a breakthrough does occur, then expect things to change very rapidly.

Basic logic tells us that fossil fuels will run out someday.  But it's not as if we'll wake up and find no petrol at the bowser.  This will play out over decades as supplies dwindle and the market should be allowed to determine the optimum outcome.  What will happen to the world's tourism industry when planes can't fly?  The world's population is propped up by industrial-scale agriculture which relies on fossil fuel-based fertilisers.  What then?  What happens to pharmaceuticals which are heavily reliant on fossil fuels? 

As an aside, I see Toyota is currently touring the country on a PR/education mission with a hydrogen powered vehicle and a hydrogen refuelling truck.  Hydrogen is far from dead as an alternative propulsion.

'Clean energy'?  One can only fear for the future of this country when you look at the state-based RETs for Vic, SA and QLD.  Clearly the politicians have either not obtained or ignored qualified advice from knowledgeable engineers.  On the other hand, what else would you expect from a mediocre bunch of ex-union hacks and time servers?  If these states insist on maintaining their RETs and timeframes using current technology, the loss of system inertia will almost guarantee that the SA blackout will look like a Sunday school picnic.

We have 7+ billion humans inhaling oxygen and converting it to CO2 24x7.  I would encourage half of them to stop it!

[firstone]

Agree absolutely...  It's about time a few people who should know better started to get a grip on reality.  Unfortunately, engineers are hopeless at getting coherent messages across to dim-witted politicians and the gullible hoi-poloi.

EVs - have been a miserable commercial failure.  Where are the squadrons of Volts and Leafs?  Nowhere is where.  Even Tesla is seriously in the red in aggregate.  Performance?  These things are a one trick pony.  Once you've done your acceleration trick a couple of times, better keep an eye out for a power point somewhere.  I have yet to see one drive from Sydney to Wakefield Park, spend a day on the track and drive back - and I doubt I will for at least 20 years.  Perhaps sir would like to tow his boat/car/horse trailer to an event somewhere beyond the city limits and tow it back again?  Oh dear...  The problem, of course, is energy density.  With current battery tech, an EV battery would have to be larger than the vehicle to contain as much energy as a tank of gas (petrol).  Unless or until there is a step-change in battery tech, these things will remain a niche product for inner city latte sippers, feel gooders and various other moral signalers.  If such a breakthrough does occur, then expect things to change very rapidly.

Basic logic tells us that fossil fuels will run out someday.  But it's not as if we'll wake up and find no petrol at the bowser.  This will play out over decades as supplies dwindle and the market should be allowed to determine the optimum outcome.  What will happen to the world's tourism industry when planes can't fly?  The world's population is propped up by industrial-scale agriculture which relies on fossil fuel-based fertilisers.  What then?  What happens to pharmaceuticals which are heavily reliant on fossil fuels? 

As an aside, I see Toyota is currently touring the country on a PR/education mission with a hydrogen powered vehicle and a hydrogen refuelling truck.  Hydrogen is far from dead as an alternative propulsion.

'Clean energy'?  One can only fear for the future of this country when you look at the state-based RETs for Vic, SA and QLD.  Clearly the politicians have either not obtained or ignored qualified advice from knowledgeable engineers.  On the other hand, what else would you expect from a mediocre bunch of ex-union hacks and time servers?  If these states insist on maintaining their RETs and timeframes using current technology, the loss of system inertia will almost guarantee that the SA blackout will look like a Sunday school picnic.

We have 7+ billion humans inhaling oxygen and converting it to CO2 24x7.  I would encourage half of them to stop it!

????

The epidemic of obesity will ensure at least 50% of the 7 billion will do just that. But not before the economy collapses trying sustain health care for them.

Stupid monkey's ???

 

[DJM]

Well Pork Chops I actually watched the video right through  and found it quite fascinating and compelling.  And for the record, I am an Engineer so I'm conservative, logic baed and generally sceptical.  I am anything but a greenie or a bline believer but some of the responses above sound to me like the naysayers in New York that thought they'd be riding their horse forever.  

I'm not a fan of EVs or autonomous vehicles but I do expect battery and computer tech will continue to advance and costs continue to plummet such that I think the outcome is inevitable.  But I dont think that means ICE vehicles will be all scrapped any time soon.

by the way, had lunch yesterday with our solar hot water supplier and their sales of battery tech into homes are through the roof because costs have tumbled.....but I stuck my fingers in my ears and pretended I was somewhere else rather than listen to reality.  And battery tech clearly hasn't advanced, no, no, forever we've all had batteries connected to solar with smart inverters that can draw power to charge batteries during off peak periods.......haven't we....??

[Redracn]

Agree absolutely...  It's about time a few people who should know better started to get a grip on reality.  Unfortunately, engineers are hopeless at getting coherent messages across to dim-witted politicians and the gullible hoi-poloi.

EVs - have been a miserable commercial failure.  Where are the squadrons of Volts and Leafs?  Nowhere is where.  Even Tesla is seriously in the red in aggregate.  Performance?  These things are a one trick pony.  Once you've done your acceleration trick a couple of times, better keep an eye out for a power point somewhere.  I have yet to see one drive from Sydney to Wakefield Park, spend a day on the track and drive back - and I doubt I will for at least 20 years.  Perhaps sir would like to tow his boat/car/horse trailer to an event somewhere beyond the city limits and tow it back again?  Oh dear...  The problem, of course, is energy density.  With current battery tech, an EV battery would have to be larger than the vehicle to contain as much energy as a tank of gas (petrol).  Unless or until there is a step-change in battery tech, these things will remain a niche product for inner city latte sippers, feel gooders and various other moral signalers.  If such a breakthrough does occur, then expect things to change very rapidly.

Basic logic tells us that fossil fuels will run out someday.  But it's not as if we'll wake up and find no petrol at the bowser.  This will play out over decades as supplies dwindle and the market should be allowed to determine the optimum outcome.  What will happen to the world's tourism industry when planes can't fly?  The world's population is propped up by industrial-scale agriculture which relies on fossil fuel-based fertilisers.  What then?  What happens to pharmaceuticals which are heavily reliant on fossil fuels? 

As an aside, I see Toyota is currently touring the country on a PR/education mission with a hydrogen powered vehicle and a hydrogen refuelling truck.  Hydrogen is far from dead as an alternative propulsion.

'Clean energy'?  One can only fear for the future of this country when you look at the state-based RETs for Vic, SA and QLD.  Clearly the politicians have either not obtained or ignored qualified advice from knowledgeable engineers.  On the other hand, what else would you expect from a mediocre bunch of ex-union hacks and time servers?  If these states insist on maintaining their RETs and timeframes using current technology, the loss of system inertia will almost guarantee that the SA blackout will look like a Sunday school picnic.

We have 7+ billion humans inhaling oxygen and converting it to CO2 24x7.  I would encourage half of them to stop it!

I could not have put it better.

[Redracn]

  And battery tech clearly hasn't advanced, no, no, forever we've all had batteries connected to solar with smart inverters that can draw power to charge batteries during off peak periods.......haven't we....??

Well actually we have had the tech for a very long time so I guess you are not an electrical or electronic Engineer then? But of course charging batteries from the mains is very inefficient use of that energy as you would be lucky to get even 70% of it back in a home scale installation. Inefficient storage just means we have to generate more power to cover the losses so have to emitt more carbon and spend even more $$ to install that extra capacity.

An Engineer would also look at the entire picture in order to acheive the best outcome. I.e. In relation to EV's to charge them in a reasonable time require 3phase power to your house which not many would already have so we now need to run wires out to the power poles (lots of copper and aluminum required). Next there is no where near enough transmission line capacity to supply the now increased demand in the residential environment so we have to upgrade the poles and wires and the transformers so lots more mining (must be what is really meant by a green job) required and CO2 emitted. Next we find that even the installed generation capacity that is available at night is nowhere near enough. After all we have to produce the equivalent energy to the liquid fuel we are no longer consuming. So more generation with more transmission capability. 

Unintended consequences? Seeing where this is going with the electrical grid becoming unstable and less reliable and given I want reliable power which the government is not going to provide I would buy a battery for the house (If I lived in SA I would already have one) so I am not surprised that battery sales are increasing. Yes we are really just talking about a UPS (uninteruptable power supply) which have also been around "forever". Of course we need to consume finite resources to do this but what the heck. I do have a small 3 KVA generator that I use on average a few times a year. It is a modern Honda but it is just as dirty as engines from 80years ago with  no emission reduction tech at all. As well the fuel evaporates out of the non sealed fuel tank resulting in hydrocarbon emissions. But it is really no different to an old Porsche in this regard. 

Even today short term battery backup via a UPS and longer term by Diesel genset is standard issue in critical applications such as hospitals, data centers and some manufacturing. With what the pollys are doing to the grid it could soon become common place in a residence.  I think I need to get some mining shares while are reasonably priced)

 

[bumble]

Well actually we have had the tech for a very long time so I guess you are not an electrical or electronic Engineer then? But of course charging batteries from the mains is very inefficient use of that energy as you would be lucky to get even 70% of it back in a home scale installation. Inefficient storage just means we have to generate more power to cover the losses so have to emitt more carbon and spend even more $$ to install that extra capacity.

An Engineer would also look at the entire picture in order to acheive the best outcome. I.e. In relation to EV's to charge them in a reasonable time require 3phase power to your house which not many would already have so we now need to run wires out to the power poles (lots of copper and aluminum required). Next there is no where near enough transmission line capacity to supply the now increased demand in the residential environment so we have to upgrade the poles and wires and the transformers so lots more mining (must be what is really meant by a green job) required and CO2 emitted. Next we find that even the installed generation capacity that is available at night is nowhere near enough. After all we have to produce the equivalent energy to the liquid fuel we are no longer consuming. So more generation with more transmission capability. 

Unintended consequences? Seeing where this is going with the electrical grid becoming unstable and less reliable and given I want reliable power which the government is not going to provide I would buy a battery for the house (If I lived in SA I would already have one) so I am not surprised that battery sales are increasing. Yes we are really just talking about a UPS (uninteruptable power supply) which have also been around "forever". Of course we need to consume finite resources to do this but what the heck. I do have a small 3 KVA generator that I use on average a few times a year. It is a modern Honda but it is just as dirty as engines from 80years ago with  no emission reduction tech at all. As well the fuel evaporates out of the non sealed fuel tank resulting in hydrocarbon emissions. But it is really no different to an old Porsche in this regard. 

Even today short term battery backup via a UPS and longer term by Diesel genset is standard issue in critical applications such as hospitals, data centers and some manufacturing. With what the pollys are doing to the grid it could soon become common place in a residence.  I think I need to get some mining shares while are reasonably priced)

 

At the risk of forming a mutual admiration society - spot on!

[Pork Chops]

I could not have put it better.

At the risk of forming a mutual admiration society - spot on!

[firstone]

If you are considering batteries watch 'Battery powered homes' on Catalyst ABC.

Zinc bromide gel batteries are being developed by the CSIRO.

There are working examples of  lithium systems in Oz.

[Redracn]

If you are considering batteries watch 'Battery powered homes' on Catalyst ABC.

Zinc bromide gel batteries are being developed by the CSIRO.

There are working examples of  lithium systems in Oz.

And a lot of examples of lead based battery installations all over the country. There is nothing new here. Light weight and compact may be desirable in a car but in a house installation they are irrelevant. Lead based battries are also very recyclable how about the new tech ones? The main consideration for a home based system should be lifetime cost per unit of energy stored. So are the newer batteries cheaper than Lead based ones yet?

There are also 2,000 potentual new customers in SA after last nights customer load shedding to prevent another state wide blackout. 

T

 

Watching from the loge has its advantages.

or

 

 

[MFX]

Like it or not things are a changin'. I talked to a mate who works for Briggs and Stratton (which encompasses Victa, etc) and even they are basically giving up on the petrol engines which have been the backbone of that company from the start. They have basically invested everything into battery powered mowers, etc.

Obviously cars are different to lawn mowers, but I think instead of EV's completely taking over, there will be a much bigger percentage of plug in hybrids, which will have the best of both worlds. The new Panamera I keep seeing ad's for is a good example.

[Pork Chops]

Went to lunch today. Speaking was Hamish Douglas CEO and CIO of the Magellan Financial Group. Some slides her presented to a room of 150 leaders of industry and general movers and shakers, like me. 

 

There is a reason engineers do not rule the world.

 

[Pork Chops]

Sorry.  Shouldn't have been rude about engineers.  Spent the afternoon in their company talking finite element analysis, and they're smart (as you know).  We all have our different opinions but I kinda dont get', in fact I get frustrated by the absolute denial of the prospect of change.

[Redracn]

Like it or not things are a changin'. I talked to a mate who works for Briggs and Stratton (which encompasses Victa, etc) and even they are basically giving up on the petrol engines which have been the backbone of that company from the start. They have basically invested everything into battery powered mowers, etc.

Obviously cars are different to lawn mowers, but I think instead of EV's completely taking over, there will be a much bigger percentage of plug in hybrids, which will have the best of both worlds. The new Panamera I keep seeing ad's for is a good example.

Now we are talking. Reducing urban smog and actually doing something about cleaning up the "REAL" dirty emissions. I already have a battery blower, chain saw (pruning) and wipper snipper. How about you Chops? 

But I will not be trading my Honda Genset, large area lawn mower, fire pump or Real Chainsaw for a battery one until there is a 10 X increase in battery tech. 

Given there are already many players in the battery lawn mower area for urban class equipment I suspect B&S are already to late to that game. I also doubt they are giving up on the areas that you need liquid fuels i.e. a genset can produce more for longer under any conditions than any solar battery system can at a fraction of the price. Especially the up front cost to have it on standby. But then again B&S haven been getting a right R from Honda, Kawasaki and Yamaha while the Chinese have been copying away (especially Honda copies) 

[Pork Chops]

Now we are talking. Reducing urban smog and actually doing something about cleaning up the "REAL" dirty emissions. I already have a battery blower, chain saw (pruning) and wipper snipper. How about you Chops? 

Not sure mate. I'll ask my gardening man .

Actually, just being a wanker. Gardener uses petrol mower and snipper. I'm no greenie but I bloody should be as we're all going to environmental hell.

Solar is where it's at.