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[boslapet]

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[Peter M]

Bo,

Nice presentation.  What is your sample size BTW?

[D-banger]

I believe it tells an interesting story, Porschewise. The values I've used in the table & chart are either from cars I know, cars I've owned, cars that belong(ed) to friends & acquaintances, or from Unique Car magazine & carsales.com.au adverts. The data obviously needs to be quite generic, unable to take colour, spec, kms, maintenance & accident history into consideration.

Australian Enthusiast Porsche 993 Values.pdf

Great effort there Bo.

Being that your data has come from both sellers as well as advertised prices, can you tell me of your experiences when it comes to the difference between advertised price and final selling price.

Im guessing that the gap narrows as the market balance tips toward the vendor.  Sometimes exceeding vendors asking.

[boslapet]

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[smit2100]

Bo,

Nice presentation.  What is your sample size BTW?

+1  Nice work.  Also interested in the sample sizes (insertion of a line with number of sales under each model to match each year would be extremely useful).   Can you apply a discount (is that consistent with you data, eg not a lot of examples were there is a premium ) of 5% and 10% as a proxy to estimate the actual sale price on each item that is tagged as an advertised price (last two years only)  and  rerun the numbers. I would be interested in seeing the revised notional annualised appreciation return.     I am guestimating that that if you rerun the numbers, your probably at circa 8-9%  as opposed to your current 11% which are both better than most superfunds.   Interesting, 993's as a diversification strategy to your self managed superfund.   Ha ha, Now I know why you may not  see many on the road going forward.  There all going to be tied up in storage units with them only seeing the light of day (no touchy, touchy , may only looky looky) when someone (not the owner) is running the car around the block of the storage unit, when the owner turns 65 and need cash and sells outside of SMSF or when their is a world gone mad pricing event/ cycle  to good not to try and flip it so the fund crystallises the profit and may  repurchase back when prices amy later drop or look for another mark / model to purchase with more upside potential

Just one bit of information as a signpost.  Not too sure what your sample size is for a 993 Turbo S, but when I was searching for a 996tt, in Nov 15, a seller said he was in the process of buying a 993 turbo S off his brother who he has tried to arm twist for the past 10 yearst.  When I mentioned so I am guessing not much change out of 500k for that(mates / brothers rate) his voice didn't flinch on the phone and got the impression it was going to cost him more than that.  So 993 Turbo S figure your have in FY15 hangs with that conversation I had.

[Brow]

phew lot of work in that , well done. A very significant variable that we all know, is the rarity of the car and as the trend lines are not a lot different between the models shown from new until 2006 and there is a clear spurt driven  by scarcity   but at what point does rarity ( and desirability)  and or supply scarcity  cease to push price ? Looking at the graphs unless its got a turbo or RS badge its not going very far, extrapolation is very misleading unless the depth of the buying market at each higher price point is factored in as it is not a linear type relationship but more like exponential (apologies to the stats Gurus, is it a classic asset bubble market pattern? ). Just look at the housing market and the number of buyers at each price point. I think we are all enjoying the growing awareness of the P (thats wrong it is 911 not P) brand from product diversification and in time that will drive more buyers into something special after the first P purchase that maybe more of a DD.

 

[symsy]

Like your sheet..

Not just because I own one , but the 993 is really just one of those iconic era cars, but god knows Im not sure RS, TT or TT's are worth that cash.

I wonder and I havent done the math with 300k 1996 entry , where would we be against bank rates..

You can see why people put money in Porsche , I have all 19 years of my TTs life

Put Porsche engineering and commitment to guarantee alongside most of the super car brands and see what you could by against a 991 GT3 for example.. Bang for buck you can see why people are buying the higher end cars.  Cheap in those terms although still taxing to my wallet.

Ferrari or many other manufactures alike,  start to get in discussion  about their support and warranty , when your car goes near the track or has launch control selected.

Porsche on the other hand say…go for it, we back it.  A very different risk profile.  Shit look at the latest Turbo S, I have heard of people discussing in the auto world , 100 x back to back starts and stops and they dont break..dont think you can get Ferrari or Lambo to stand by that 

Although I think they are making a mistake with the recent 991 RS bullshit and price games.

Maybe they will redeem themselves by again bringing the most competitive bang for buck through with the GT4 Cayman.

Some engineers exotics and some engineer fast cars that are also exotic . Backed with the factory supply of parts… Porsche along with its small needs if you park and turn it off for a few years alongside say a 12 ferrari that needs pampering at 1-5k once or twice a year.

Like the numbers , probably 997 will be the next to have stability like these numbers perhaps ..alongside the 993 or possibly the one of the cars 991 or other once they work out if their manual or PDK or just confused.   I feel the 996 although having many merits will always be the bastard child that was forced to drink water.  Its funny what stigma can do to a value.. shit its a porsche and even today many reoresent good value.

It will be interesting in time to see what happens with later models, for cars with water like the 997 are being more widley accepted as just the way it is now..have  you started to crunch 997?

I think with the engine changes and four pots it will be a while again if Porsche cars track like this in financial terms

 

[Okrasa Kid]

 Obtaining accurate market intelligence is always a challenge with research such as this -  that said your approach has been methodical and well presented

Couple of questions!

1. What do the forum believe are appropriate discounts to apply for  993 Tiptronics and Cabs?

2. According to Porsche cars Aust. 95,  993 C2S were delivered in 1997. How many were manuals?

Cheers

[D-banger]

Although I think they are making a mistake with the recent 991 RS bullshit and price games.

Is it possible to expand on this?

[Peter M]

 2. According to Porsche cars Aust. 95,  993 C2S were delivered in 1997. How many were manuals?

http://www.pcv.com.au/PorscheClubs/pc_victoria/pc_main.nsf/web/773A6631B093D973C1257241001F396A/$File/993-911Website150708.pdf

[D-banger]

http://www.pcv.com.au/PorscheClubs/pc_victoria/pc_main.nsf/web/773A6631B093D973C1257241001F396A/$File/993-911Website150708.pdf

At least that explains why there are so many Turbos on the market.

[Brow]

I nearly feel better for getting the 6.2 over the 993tt (and 930) 18 months  ago, 6.2 is rarer!

[symsy]

Is it possible to expand on this?

Whats would you like me to say…I just know and have been around some first hand back handing to get cars and deals….

Thats not a tax for Marketting or payng for a show room , its just plain dodgy, it adds a premium that really isnt related to true scarecity or quality.

Im up for profits , a deal and more , dont get me wrong ..I am a Yuppie child from the trading floor , who is learning to be a considerate social contributor to society. Consume , was the first verb I learnt I think.

I think cars with heritage, enthusiast love that has been poured into them , warrant extra coin.

I think personally cars that open with a huge premium above their list …just bring us this game of cars far away from their real worth..

I guess if your into the world of see how far we can go with prices its great

You have seen people trying to flip here already…with what 200k+ 30% margin ? Somewhat less in the UK.

Shit i have been a business guy and trader for years but , when the residual value is just hype , in the end people get burned and the product gets devalued.. just a philosophy 

I still want one… just as i said in another post , I just aint got big enough balls..

Back to subject , I like the 993 analysis and feel that the 997 will be the next car to run that kinda track.

 

[Okrasa Kid]

Thanks for this Peter

I can see the 95 C2S cars being delivered in 1997 but it doesn't break them down between tipper's and sticks (well not that I can see!)

 

[Peter M]

You're right!  I can't see the C2S's either which makes me question how accurate those figures are.  Maybe another of those C2S owners will know and chip in?

[Harold996tt]

Digging this old chestnut up, it's interesting to see prices have slipped back to 2016 levels on the back of the softening property market as well.

However, I can see 993 prices will always hold however well ahead of the water cooled cars as the water cooled production numbers were way higher and unfortunately as a result became a victim of their own success. As such I don't expect to see the water cooled cars ever having the appreciation of the earlier cars, the 993 likely being the last to have any upward momentum of any kind. 

[Coastr]

Watercooled GT cars were made in suffficientlu low numbers and are different enough to see upward movement like a 993.

[boslapet]

On 01/08/2018 at 09:34, Coastr said:

Watercooled GT cars were made in suffficientlu low numbers and are different enough to see upward movement like a 993.

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