A bit of blurb.

[tomo]

Just sitting back looking out my window and I see the Mersk Giant (self jacking oil rig) supply boat in for a crew change, And it got me thinking about the thousands of jobs and inferstructure, tied up in the oil industry, We have about 120 wind generators about 50 k down the road, The maintenance crew consists of 1 crane,driver, rigger and a sparky  , Of course we have to do some thing about pollution,  But it just don't add up, To produce the same energy/power from a gas turbine plant for example would probably require 3_400 employees. So once we go all green where the fu#k is every one going to work ?

 

 

[micknine01]

Politicians haven’t thought that far ahead mate 😆

[sleazius]

Automation is the far bigger issue. Latest estimates are that the newest version of ChatGPT (and AI like it) will displace 300M white collar workers globally. I'll say it again, this first generation AI will replace 300 million jobs.

We're in for a shit-show.

I've been linking this video to people for years now, but it is sobering to watch, and it was made 8 years ago.

Humans Need Not Apply.

 

[tomo]

Yep, Now the big worry is AI doing exams for school kids, Yeah have seen your vid before scary stuff  , They asked a an American AI promoter on how good the future would be with no one having a job, No taxes for the Government how would we survive, ? That Clown reckon that seeing all the work was done by AI we would be sitting on the beach drinking pina colardas or some shit fair dinkum ,Would not mind some the shit these guys smoke

[GT3MEZ]

Jeebus - just like steam power / electricity / motor vehicles etc etc etc.... were all expected to end in mass job losses and an otherwise idle workforce; what we saw in reality was economic growth through efficiency and fundamental job transformation.

In essence, old professions will die and they will be replaced by new professions not yet imagined as the technology emerges.

[sleazius]

Watch the video, in terms of total number of jobs, the majority of people are employed in industries that are replaceable, and there is nothing else for them to do.

Taken from the vid I linked: "More technology means more better jobs for horses" sounds utterly ridiculous, but this somehow sounds right; "More technology means more better jobs for humans".

Obviously it is a fallacy.

I've no doubt there are jobs that will be created that we can't imagine right now, but the problem is exactly what @tomo stated, there simply won't be enough of them.

[LeeM]

2 hours ago, micknine01 said:

Politicians haven’t thought that far ahead mate 😆

 They never do

 I don't care what any 'expert' or numpty politician says, it will never be solely 'green' energy, as there's too many lives, jobs and billions of dollars in taxes at stake. What government is going to neck themselves by letting that go? Easy answer is none.

[JWM]

1 hour ago, sleazius said:

I've no doubt there are jobs that will be created that we can't imagine right now, but the problem is exactly what @tomo stated, there simply won't be enough of them.

If we can’t imagine the jobs that will be created, how can we be certain there won’t be enough of them?

[sleazius]

2 hours ago, JWM said:

If we can’t imagine the jobs that will be created, how can we be certain there won’t be enough of them?

Because you're replacing human brains with AI ones. In the same way that we replaced large chunks of manufacturing with robots, and almost all of agriculture jobs with machines.

edit - even in my own neck of the woods we replaced 2 back office roles already with generic AI, and we've only been using it for 2 months. What are big business already doing or contemplating?

Most marketing is finished. Bookkeeping is finished. Data entry is finished. Once the AI gets better most contract and legal work is finished. Most accountancy will be finished too.

[sleazius]

I just asked chatGPT the jobs that AI will likely replace, this was the response:

It's important to note that while AI can automate certain tasks within jobs, it cannot completely replace human workers. Many jobs will still require human input for tasks that require creativity, empathy, and complex decision-making. Additionally, new jobs may be created as a result of advancements in AI technology. That being said, here are some examples of jobs that could potentially be impacted by automation and AI in the future:

1. Telemarketers and salespeople
2. Data entry and administrative assistants
3. Bookkeepers and accounting clerks
4. Receptionists and front desk personnel
5. Insurance underwriters and claims adjusters
6. Loan officers and mortgage processors
7. Fast-food workers and kitchen staff
8. Truck and taxi drivers
9. Assembly line workers and factory workers in repetitive tasks
10. Cashiers and checkout operators
11. Customer service representatives
12. Stock traders and financial analysts
13. Travel agents and tour operators
14. Real estate agents and brokers
15. Delivery drivers and couriers
16. Transcriptionists and language translators
17. Medical coders and billers
18. Security guards and surveillance personnel
19. Data analysts and market researchers
20. Human resources and recruiting specialists

And now I just asked it to do the same thing but in Spanish:

Es importante tener en cuenta que aunque la inteligencia artificial puede automatizar ciertas tareas dentro de los trabajos, no puede reemplazar completamente a los trabajadores humanos. Muchos trabajos todavía requerirán la intervención humana para tareas que requieren creatividad, empatía y toma de decisiones complejas. Además, es posible que se creen nuevos trabajos como resultado de los avances en la tecnología de inteligencia artificial. Dicho esto, aquí hay algunos ejemplos de trabajos que podrían verse afectados por la automatización y la inteligencia artificial en el futuro:

1. Telemarketing y ventas
2. Asistentes administrativos y de entrada de datos
3. Contadores y auxiliares contables
4. Recepcionistas y personal de recepción
5. Suscriptores y ajustadores de seguros
6. Oficiales de préstamos y procesadores de hipotecas
7. Trabajadores de comida rápida y personal de cocina
8. Conductores de camiones y taxis
9. Trabajadores de línea de montaje y trabajadores de fábricas en tareas repetitivas
10. Cajeros y operadores de caja
11. Representantes de servicio al cliente
12. Traders y analistas financieros
13. Agentes de viajes y operadores turísticos
14. Agentes y corredores de bienes raíces
15. Conductores de entrega y mensajeros
16. Transcriptores y traductores de idiomas
17. Codificadores y facturadores médicos
18. Guardias de seguridad y personal de vigilancia
19. Analistas de datos e investigadores de mercado
20. Especialistas en recursos humanos y reclutadores.

I asked it to write a business plan for a coffee shop, i did not tell it the name:

Our coffee shop, "Brew Haven," aims to be a welcoming and comfortable space for coffee lovers to come and enjoy high-quality coffee, tea, and light bites. Our mission is to provide a unique and personalized experience for our customers, and to become a go-to destination for coffee lovers in the local community. Our experienced team is committed to delivering exceptional service, creating a warm and welcoming environment, and offering a selection of the finest coffee blends from around the world.

Market Analysis: The coffee industry has been growing steadily over the past few years, with an increasing number of people turning to coffee as a daily ritual. Our target market is primarily urban professionals, students, and tourists who appreciate good coffee and enjoy spending time in coffee shops. According to market research, the local area has a high demand for specialty coffee shops with a unique ambiance, and we believe that our coffee shop will fill that gap in the market.

Products and Services: Our coffee shop will offer a wide selection of coffee and tea blends, including single-origin, fair trade, and organic options. We will also offer a variety of light bites, including pastries, sandwiches, and salads. In addition, we plan to sell coffee beans, brewing equipment, and other coffee-related merchandise. Our team will receive extensive training to ensure they can provide knowledgeable recommendations and brewing techniques to our customers.

Marketing and Sales: We plan to market our coffee shop through social media, local advertising, and community events. We will also offer loyalty programs, discounts for repeat customers, and other promotional offers to attract and retain customers. Our location, near a busy shopping district and public transportation, will also be a significant factor in attracting customers.

Operations and Management: Our coffee shop will be open seven days a week, from 7:00 am to 9:00 pm. We will have a team of experienced baristas, bakers, and servers who will work together to ensure the smooth running of our operations. Our management team will oversee day-to-day operations, handle inventory and ordering, and manage finances.

Financial Plan: Our projected start-up costs for Brew Haven are $250,000, which includes equipment, inventory, and rent for the first three months. We plan to generate revenue primarily through coffee and food sales, as well as retail merchandise sales. Our projected monthly revenue is $50,000, with a net profit margin of 20%. We plan to break even within the first year of operation and to achieve a return on investment within three years.

Conclusion: With a growing demand for specialty coffee shops and a committed team, Brew Haven has a strong potential to succeed in the local market. Our focus on exceptional service, high-quality products, and a welcoming environment will set us apart from competitors, and we believe that our coffee shop will become a beloved community staple.

 

Job for a Sparky in Australia:

Job Title: Residential Electrician

We are seeking a skilled and experienced residential electrician to join our team. The successful candidate will be responsible for installing, maintaining, and repairing electrical systems in residential properties.

Responsibilities:

• Install, maintain, and repair electrical systems in residential properties, including wiring, lighting, and control systems.
• Diagnose and troubleshoot electrical issues and provide appropriate solutions.
• Read and interpret electrical blueprints and diagrams.
• Install and maintain electrical equipment and appliances.
• Adhere to safety procedures and regulations at all times.
• Communicate effectively with clients and team members.

Requirements:

• Completion of an electrical apprenticeship program or equivalent training and experience.
• Electrician's license issued by an Australian state or territory.
• Minimum of 3 years of experience as a residential electrician.
• Strong understanding of electrical codes, regulations, and safety practices.
• Ability to read and interpret blueprints and technical diagrams.
• Ability to work independently or as part of a team.
• Strong problem-solving and critical thinking skills.
• Excellent communication and interpersonal skills.

We offer a competitive salary, benefits package, and opportunities for career growth and development. If you are a skilled residential electrician looking for a challenging and rewarding career opportunity, please submit your resume and cover letter for consideration.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Point is that you can spit out a days worth of white collar work in about 5 mins, you just need to read it for accuracy and the job is done.

[JWM]

Yeah don’t get me wrong, there will be crazy levels of disruption and change … but as for what’s on the other side … I don’t think anyone knows what it looks like yet.

The mental model I think is ~ correct for now is “AI won’t take your job but a human using AI will” …

We’re building a few products that we will be  integrating GPT-4 into, it’s pretty wild. But where things are going to get really wild is when it’s running at the edge on your phone, which isn’t far away …  Check out https://github.com/nomic-ai/gpt4all for a version you can run on a laptop already …

 

[Troubleshooter]

Learn to code ...    will that get me banned, in alliance with twitter bans??

[sleazius]

The demand for human coding is going to drop like a stone too. Not right now, but it is coming. It is just another subset of language after all.

You definitely need someone to oversee what the AI is spitting out, but the difference is where you had 5 people before doing those jobs, now you only need 1 person to sign off on whatever the AI has spit out, and 4 people who need to find something else to do (aka unemployment). Even if you don't agree with the ratio I picked, you have to agree that there is a ratio here, and if we find that even 15% of white collar workers are out of a job, that is a HUGE problem.

This isn't doom and gloom, its just pragmatic. Anyone can sit around and think of ways to use the AI we have now to eliminate jobs, and frankly it isn't even that good yet.

[3legs]

Interesting @sleazius. In that list it listed security guards as a job that could disappear. What are they going to replace them with? Terminators running around with M60's. Yes I am being flippant but it still begs the question, other than surveillance, what could AI do to stop a running intruder ( other than gun emplacements everywhere ).

[sleazius]

@3legs

Meet Atlas...... (strong T2 vibes).

Imagine the next generation of this thing tied to AI.

 

 

[LeeM]

2 hours ago, 3legs said:

Interesting @sleazius. In that list it listed security guards as a job that could disappear. What are they going to replace them with? Terminators running around with M60's. Yes I am being flippant but it still begs the question, other than surveillance, what could AI do to stop a running intruder ( other than gun emplacements everywhere ).

 There already is some robotic security sentrys at a big business in the US, but I didn't see any M60's in the video I watched 😁 Hope they're not going to be like the big robot that shot up the office in Robocop movie! 😳

 Anyway, I think it has or will replace either 5 or 6 human security guards.

[Harsh]

I remember being told computers will do us all out of jobs. I think the opposite happened,it created jobs and the demand for more paper (printer) to be supplied to industry. And even if robots do some of the jobs done by people in the past I can't see them picking fruit or getting up into a roofspace to fix a light!

[sleazius]

1 hour ago, Harsh said:

I remember being told computers will do us all out of jobs. I think the opposite happened,it created jobs and the demand for more paper (printer) to be supplied to industry. And even if robots do some of the jobs done by people in the past I can't see them picking fruit or getting up into a roofspace to fix a light!

If you're in the physical trades, robots and AI are coming for you almost last.

Interestingly total hours worked (labour force combined) have been declining in most western countries since the late 90s. At the same time populations have increased. In other words, productivity is up per worker, and business requires less workers per unit of output. AI will turbo charge that phenomenon.

If you look at most of the huge global businesses that have sprung up in the last 30 years, they don't employ many people. They use technology to do away with as many humans as possible. The difference with generic AI is that it can be accessed by businesses without huge budgets for custom AI, which means that small to medium enterprise which up until now haven't had access to many ways to reduce headcount, are now being given access to tools to do just that, for $30 a month.

It won't happen all at once, and it likely won't happen that quickly, but we aren't talking decades here, we've had 2 people leave who I won't be replacing, and I reckon there are another 4-5 admin roles that will go just based on what it can currently do, not what it can do 5 years from now. That is about 25% of my admin team fyi.

[LeeM]

 @3legs

I stand corrected mate. The video I saw was Boston Dynamics testing out some 'sentry dog' robots, though apparently they have one or 2 on a trial at some place

[3legs]

1 hour ago, sleazius said:

If you're in the physical trades, robots and AI are coming for you almost last.

Interestingly total hours worked (labour force combined) have been declining in most western countries since the late 90s. At the same time populations have increased. In other words, productivity is up per worker, and business requires less workers per unit of output. AI will turbo charge that phenomenon.

If you look at most of the huge global businesses that have sprung up in the last 30 years, they don't employ many people. They use technology to do away with as many humans as possible. The difference with generic AI is that it can be accessed by businesses without huge budgets for custom AI, which means that small to medium enterprise which up until now haven't had access to many ways to reduce headcount, are now being given access to tools to do just that, for $30 a month.

It won't happen all at once, and it likely won't happen that quickly, but we aren't talking decades here, we've had 2 people leave who I won't be replacing, and I reckon there are another 4-5 admin roles that will go just based on what it can currently do, not what it can do 5 years from now. That is about 25% of my admin team fyi.

Yeah, but can you imagine the conversations around the bar at happy hour on a Friday night. I'd like to see a robot get pissed so we can laugh at him  

[tomo]

4 hours ago, 3legs said:

Yeah, but can you imagine the conversations around the bar at happy hour on a Friday night. I'd like to see a robot get pissed so we can laugh at him  

Yeah, I am drinking a bottle of AI right now very smart, But t'morra back to Granpa 😀

[Harsh]

On 31/03/2023 at 11:28, sleazius said:

If you're in the physical trades, robots and AI are coming for you almost last.

Interestingly total hours worked (labour force combined) have been declining in most western countries since the late 90s. At the same time populations have increased. In other words, productivity is up per worker, and business requires less workers per unit of output. AI will turbo charge that phenomenon.

If you look at most of the huge global businesses that have sprung up in the last 30 years, they don't employ many people. They use technology to do away with as many humans as possible. The difference with generic AI is that it can be accessed by businesses without huge budgets for custom AI, which means that small to medium enterprise which up until now haven't had access to many ways to reduce headcount, are now being given access to tools to do just that, for $30 a month.

It won't happen all at once, and it likely won't happen that quickly, but we aren't talking decades here, we've had 2 people leave who I won't be replacing, and I reckon there are another 4-5 admin roles that will go just based on what it can currently do, not what it can do 5 years from now. That is about 25% of my admin team fyi.

You mean like apple (164,000 full time employees) amazon (1,500,000 full and part time). I think I would have to disagree with you. Certainy in the oil/gas and mining industry where I have worked for 40 years there are more people employed (loads of dead wood) than ever. I think if you are getting rid of employees you probably never needed them.