911 values ........here we go again!

[hugh]

Can't agree with this.

 

The only reason that we're seeing a spike in values is because baby boomers world wide are retiring, and these are the cars that they lusted after as young men. Waited their whole life to get one, and decide what the hell? That coupled with limited availability and you have a boom market.

 

If this argument held water why aren't cars from the 30s worth mega bucks? Because everyone who lusted after them is dead, thats why. The same thing will happen with the majority of 70s p cars down the line. Values will plummet because very few people my age (or younger) will bother to own them.

 

Rare or limited models like the '73 RS, sure, they'll hold value, possibly even go up because it is iconic. Everything else will crash back to where it was before all this began a few years ago.

 

Lets not even discuss what will happen if regulators decide that petrol cars are banned world wide to save the environment.

I agree in part with what you are saying but with respect values are being influenced by many things other than 'baby boomers'.

We live in a digital age and the more digitalised we get it seems the more we long for something analogue. The same rationale can be applied to many things but I don't see the sediment changing anytime soon. Again this is not a dig at modern or water cooled etc. just an opinion based on my broader observation over the past 10+ years that I have developed an interest in.

[tazzieman]

Old car maintenance requires money, knowledge and hard work.

Modern generation tend to spend their wages on appearance , holidays , booze and throwaway items. Marketers love you for it!

There will be no discretionary income for grown up toys because life will be spent attempting to pay off a mortgage. 

But that's fine , as the vast majority of older people spend what's left on appearance , holidays , booze and stuff you see in those embarrassing pensioner catalogues in the junk mail.

 

Meanwhile , me and the boys...

 

[Coastr]

Really, I see most baby boomers selling the cars and the next generation along buying them. It is definitely a generational thing.

Each era has the cars that are popular.

1973 was the end because it was emissions and safety regulations brought about by the American market, which dictated everything.

Everything after 1973 was crap compared to the 12 months before. The 911 limped along because of the worldwide market, probably because the Germans had a head start with injection and could more easily adapt to emissions controls. The British manufacturers were all Dead by then. American muscle cars no longer existed, and Australian muscle cars evolved into embarrassments like the Monaro LE.

Cars didn't really start getting good again until the mid 80s when EFI started gaining traction. Yes, the 911 was the exception, and thats why it is sought after. A 911SC and especially the 3.2 stood out for power/weight during this time period.

[sleazius]

It wasn't a dig at air-cooled enthusiasm by any stretch, just how I see it from someone who only just scrapes into gen-x. There are always going to be ouliers who will buy regardless, but long term (I'm talking 20+ years here) the crazy values won't hold up for anything that isn't iconic or rare. The way I see it, we are in a boom market and the fundamentals won't stick long term.

 

Everyone on this site is an enthusiast of one sort or another, and car enthusiasm is something that seems to be on the outer with the younger generations (late gen x, and gen y). The vast majority of gen y can't even drive a manual car. Can't see many of them clamoring after an old Porsche in their 50s. Most likely it'll be something that was around when they were a teenager - so possibly a 996 or 997 GT3 using Porsche for example.

 

By the way, the reason I used the 30s as an example is because I own a car from the 30s

[Simonoz]

Really, I see most baby boomers selling the cars and the next generation along buying them. It is definitely a generational thing.

Each era has the cars that are popular.

1973 was the end because it was emissions and safety regulations brought about by the American market, which dictated everything.

Everything after 1973 was crap compared to the 12 months before. The 911 limped along because of the worldwide market, probably because the Germans had a head start with injection and could more easily adapt to emissions controls. The British manufacturers were all Dead by then. American muscle cars no longer existed, and Australian muscle cars evolved into embarrassments like the Monaro LE.

Cars didn't really start getting good again until the mid 80s when EFI started gaining traction. Yes, the 911 was the exception, and thats why it is sought after. A 911SC and especially the 3.2 stood out for power/weight during this time period.

Coastr

It might be worth considering some other post 1973 911's that weren't crap.

How about the 1974 Carrera RS 3.0. Its better than the 2.7 RS as a car, and if there were more of them around, and if people sold them, you would find they are right up there value wise.

Which leads to the 930 Turbo 911. Built after 1973, but by any standards a ground breaking car, leading into the later 993 series Turbos which everyone agrees changed the way people viewed high horsepower 911 motoring. The first series 930's are finally being appreciated for their simplicity, cross pollination of RS parts, and performance. One day they will be worth two or three times todays prices. Buy one now I reckon.

[Simonk]

Based on this thread, I'd say it's Gen X pushing prices up, not baby boomers. The 70s and 80s were when we were pre-teens. It was way too early to even think about owning a car but we were still wowed by any performance car of the day. It's certainly when I was infected by the Porsche bug.

 

The car industry has acknowledged the lack of interest in cars by those 30 and under as a serious issue for the industry. Many aren't even getting a licence. If it's a trend that continues, then discussions about the next collectible are irrelevant.

[Coastr]

Coastr

It might be worth considering some other post 1973 911's that weren't crap.

How about the 1974 Carrera RS 3.0. Its better than the 2.7 RS as a car, and if there were more of them around, and if people sold them, you would find they are right up there value wise.

Which leads to the 930 Turbo 911. Built after 1973, but by any standards a ground breaking car, leading into the later 993 series Turbos which everyone agrees changed the way people viewed high horsepower 911 motoring. The first series 930's are finally being appreciated for their simplicity, cross pollination of RS parts, and performance. One day they will be worth two or three times todays prices. Buy one now I reckon.

My comment was more general across the industry than Porsche specifically. Because they had experience with injection they seemed to weather the storm better than most - a 78 SC made as much horsepower as a Pontiac trans am after all. The impact bumper look came from the safety regulations - again Porsche did a better job than most on this front.

As for early turbos. I think that ship has left the dock if you take the hagerty price indexes as a guide.

I also agree that it is gen x people driving prices nowadays. Most baby boomers, even the later ones, will have either done their classic car purchase by now, or are never going to do it. It seems like the 35-55 timeframe is the key period when it comes to purchasing. Not saying younger or older don't do it, just that the bulk of purchases are probably in that age bracket.

Funny thing though - each generation is as big or larger than the previous - even if the proportion of enthusiasts stay the same (5%?) the absolute numbers have to go up or at least stay the same. Given that the supply of cars is fixed and shrinking all the time, stable prices seem to be the most likely scenario.

It's not all about Porsches though. Seems as though e-types (esp s1), SL benzes and others are all rising in value or holding strong. There's a general uplift in collectible vehicles going on, which probably has many reasons.

I looked at a 9 year old unique cars mag the other day. The prices of 911s was exactly the same, except for 996s which have fallen hard since then. It's not the same overseas, though, some cars have doubled easily in the same timeframe. I would even go so far to to say that Australian cars almost look like fair value right now, for those pre-1989 and exposed to import substitution, and allowing for 5-10k in import and compliance.

[withers]

Boxster -> look at the 914.  A small fan club following, good cars retain more than scrap value.

 

Caymans are rare - these will always be bought by someone I would suspect.

 

The problem with all modern cars is the proliferation of electronics and plastics.  Plastics get brittle and fall apart over time and are difficult to repair.  Electronics are pretty durable in most instances but if the factory is the only source, then $$$.  What a lot of people don't realise that most computers in cars nowadays are 'keyed' together - they all talk to each other and if they don't have the right keys, then no work.  In my BMW every computer-  engine, gearbox, body, instrument panel, abs - they all have a thing called the ZKE which is a kind of code made up from the Vin and mileage - swap any computer out for one from another car and it's not going to work unless you use specialised programs to overwrite the binary code.  They all ask each other if they have the right ZKE and don't work if it's not there. I had my immobiliser computer go kaput and the only way to get one is special order from the factory in germany, and special recode on a dealer computer.

 

Not sure if Boxsters/Caymans/996/7 have this type of sophistication (I assume they do) - you'll need to develop serious computer skills to maintain one of these in the future.  It's just another challenge to learn, like rust repair or stud replacement - so maybe it will be OK.  But it will mean that the average person will find uneconomical repairs much earlier in the vehicles life than was the case for older cars.

 

I for one can see Boxsters soon occupying a niche which is centred around the MX5.  I have noticed in the USA modded MX5s are becoming quite a common sight.  Boxsters will probably start to go this route.

 

Given the internet has made car ownership a world wide market - there will be people out there that see the value in writing/creating/fabricating ways of getting around any type of computer issue.  My youngest brother is one of the few people in this country other than Ford Dealership that can alter the onboard computer and tune Falcons, he's developed a cable or software or some mumbo jumbo (I'm not 100% sure what he does - just accidentally met a guy a few weeks ago who was bragging to me about how smart my brother is, I just nodded politely and have since heard this from other people about his skills in this area) If anyone wants to know more, I'll find out.

 

If you try to buy an original NA MX-5 now it's nearly impossible to find one that hasn't been molested and tarted up. They have gotten so cheap that P platers are buying them now and just ricing the crap out of them.  Be sad to see them do this to the Boxster.

 

I can totally see the Boxster becoming somewhat 'disposable'  but for someone that buys the right car, with the right preventative maintenance and cares for it - no reason it can't do 100,000s of kilometres and last many years to come.  The hard part of this equation is the luck aspect of it, you just don't know if your oil pump will let go or some other catastrophic event would take place. 

[DJM]

Definitely not just baby boomers wanting quality Porsches. I'm Gen X - I bought a 964 last year then sold it to a Gen X'er. He'd had several air and water cooled Porsches. As a kid I had 930 posters on my wall and knew the day would come eventually. There are lots of people out there with a passion for these cars and they don't necessarily have to be 60 before they can afford them.

Can't see baby boomers keeling over leaving noone left who wants them. Enthusiasts will always appreciate fine cars. The great air cooled stuff will become thinner on the ground and values will hold/grow.

Question is which of the water cooled stuff will follow suit. 997 GT3RS 4.0 is a no brainer. Here's hoping 996 GT2's future icon status bestowed by EVO magazine comes to fruition also........! By the way, bought the GT2 off another Gen X enthusiast.