Air cooled Porsches: superannuation in the bank vs bubble boy

[tazzieman]

You almost said 928 didn't you!

No,  I was thinking of 944s 

 

[Peter M]

Why aren't savvy investment companies buying used Porsches?

There is some irony in this statement.  

It was the Managing Directors types of these sorts of businesses that bought our cars new originally that then eventually sold them to plebs like us to then just buy them back again. 

[tazzieman]

There is some irony in this statement.  

It was the Managing Directors types of these sorts of businesses that bought our cars new originally that then eventually sold them to plebs like us to then just buy them back again. 

It remains the case. It's hard to justify a new 911 unless you can claim it as a business purchase, or you are a member of the lucky sperm club.

[Dusty]

It remains the case. It's hard to justify a new 911 unless you can claim it as a business purchase, or you are a member of the lucky sperm club.

And that's part of the perception problem with latter 911's. Many (read: some) non-car people will see a modern Porsche and assume the driver is a wanker.

The largely air-cooled models, perhaps on shape alone, have evolved past that where it's no longer 'wanker-ish' to be seen driving one, in fact almost the opposite. That perception benefit has to be uplifting values.

 

 

[Coastr]

I was talking to a neighbour on the weekend.  Funnily enough he had at t-shirt with a tangerine long hood on it.  He is not remotely interested in Porsches.  I guess they are just shorthand for 'cool' now.

[LeeM]

Not another bloody hipster is he? Bet he has a Deus tshirt or trucker cap too :-)

[tazzieman]

Was it an urban outlaw T shirt?

[Coastr]

Err no, he's definitely not a hipster.  I think he does occasionally wear trucker caps but that's because he used to drive trucks.

How to describe?  Ex boxer, gym owner and shaven-headed Harley riding beach bum with a preference for American pickups and profanity.

so not hipster at all.  Which makes the Porsche shirt even stranger.

we are seriously off-topic here.

[Danny]

Was it an urban outlaw T shirt?

I own a hoodie..,,,,

[KGB]

And that's part of the perception problem with latter 911's. Many (read: some) non-car people will see a modern Porsche and assume the driver is a wanker.

 

I represent that.

[tazzieman]

And that's part of the perception problem with latter 911's. Many (read: some) non-car (including bicycling environmentalists) people will see a modern Porsche (insert many other makes , including Jeep) and assume the driver is a wanker. especially if he is wearing a  cap backwards 

It's the age of entitlement , thus people are entitled to their opinions , however wrong they might be .

[SteamWolf]

I'd say look at who is buying them.  There's a lot of Gen Xers like myself that now have some disposable income and the financial wherewithal to buy the child's dream car.  That inflates prices.

The other buyer is institutional investors such as SMSF and commercial super funds.  There's benefit in avoiding stock markets so they buy classic cars, artwork, premium collectible alcohol (whisky et al) and this drives it up even more.

Exactly the same thing happened with muscle cars just prior to the GFC.  Muscle car prices went from insane prior to the GFC to reasonably expensive during and after the GFC.

I say it's a bubble, and that bubble will burst at the next market crash.

[Peter M]

I agree SW.

The big question is will it burst like the GFC or just deflate a little in a reasonably painless correction.

It's interesting that the banks are starting to pull back on investment lending so when they start to get nervous so should we?

[SteamWolf]

Yep.  I think the next 2-6 months is the right time to offload for profit, and give it a couple of years for prices to drop sharply. Probably not to what they were 2 years ago, but sharply nonetheless *

 

 

* This does not constitute financial advice. I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[murf]

Deus have a lot to answer for.

Hate how they have now dipped there dirty hands into the Porsche scene and R-Gruppe.

 

I just updated my insurance - seems a yearly fight between LSV and Shannons.

Last year I had to haggle the price of a 912 to get it to $38k from $20k the year before.

I joked with the guy that the little poor cousin porsche might be one day worth more than another us car I have.

I had to provide 20 photos and all details to make sure it was all numbers correct and in decent condition.

This year I shopped around calling Shannons - they offered me sight unseen a value of $75k on the little P.

LSV were haggling at $40k LOL then did research to return at a similar value. Hagerty perhaps LOL.

 

I never bought it thinking it would go up in value so quickly. I was offered two at the time. Ahh Hindsight.

Bought it for the love not the money.

 

[SteamWolf]

I bought mine hoping that one day I wouldn't lose money when it came time to sell.  In hindsight I would have bought four of them so I could keep one and never worry again!

[Coastr]

There's no-one buying them in superannuation funds - the rigmarole needed to do that makes it just plain not worth it.  Essentially you'd have to have it stored in a museum under someone elses curation for it to be considered as a super fund investment.  Unless people are breaking the rules, and that would never happen, right?  right?

They will either be being bought with cash or home equity of some type.  While I used cash I still have a mortgage so really it is home equity when you run the cold hard ruler over it.  The car would go before the house, and I'm paying more interest than necessary because of the car.

The first movement was the wholesale printing of money which first goes into the financial markets and then starts coming out.  Next it goes into collectables. 

Porsche seems to have moved harder and faster than most because of a combination of previous thinking 'there's thousands of them' which kept prices relatively low and the sudden 'coolness' of the long hoods which is partially down to the Magnus Walkers of the world, coupled with the 50 year anniversary which gave the entire range a lot of media coverage.  Once the momentum was under way, people see increasing prices and hop on board.  How the actual cars are to drive is forgotten along the way somewhere.

The 912 is surprising to me - for sheer return on investment in the last couple of years you can't beat it.  A portfolio of 5 decent runners bought for $15k a pop 3 years ago would have netted a very nice return.  But 3 years ago anyone who bought 5 912s would have been giggled at politely.  But it must be nice for those guys who like the 912 to see it come out of the shade and be respected as a car in its own right.

The question is will 944s and 928s follow suit?  The 914 already has begun the journey.  I believe the next big mover is the 944 turbo, myself.

[hugh]

ITS THE RAPTURE!

Anyone keen for a drive until the 911 apocalypse comes?  

I'll wait here..............

 

 

[DJM]

Yep.  I think the next 2-6 months is the right time to offload for profit, and give it a couple of years for prices to drop sharply. Probably not to what they were 2 years ago, but sharply nonetheless *

Makes me think of the Balwyn property market.  2.5 years ago, a knock down on 800sq.m was $800k.  1 year ago $1.3M.  Now $1.8M+.  At each stop on this journey , I said this can't continue, tread carefully if buying, cash in if selling, has to correct soon. Wrong.  It continues to defy all the doomsayers.  Very different drivers of course but like all investments, impossible to predict.

[ByronBayChris]

Makes me think of the Balwyn property market.  2.5 years ago, a knock down on 800sq.m was $800k.  1 year ago $1.3M.  Now $1.8M+.  At each stop on this journey , I said this can't continue, tread carefully if buying, cash in if selling, has to correct soon. Wrong.  It continues to defy all the doomsayers.  Very different drivers of course but like all investments, impossible to predict.

My father-in-law has been waiting for Melbourne house prices to "crash" since 1995..............

[PeterP]

Interesting through this thread, there are a couple of references relating to the numbers of the more"common SC and Carreras"....I just wonder how many real ones ( matching numbers , original Aussie delivered) there are out there.

my understanding is that there were either 71 or 107 '78 SC's delivered....I guessing there aren't too many left in original nick.......and I'm guessing the same would apply to the 80's cars......so as people possibly become more focussed on originality, rather than just a porker, and the numbers dwindle, sustained prices should remain......

[Shady Speedway]

Bought mine 2.5 years ago for next to nothing hoping I'd not loose money! If there is a GFC tomorrow I couldn't care less. I will still get the same feeling when I walk in my workshop.

I waited 30 years to own that car, put up with crap jobs and crap employers to get to this point. Living the dream is priceless. 

 

[turboT]

My father-in-law has been waiting for Melbourne house prices to "crash" since 1995..............

Been in Oz for 16 years and in that time Sydney has had non stop chat about housing bubbles. GFC hits several years ago and there were definitely some suburbs that took a hit , but largely those populated by bankers. All have recovered and then some. 

 

[turboT]

Bought mine 2.5 years ago for next to nothing hoping I'd not loose money! If there is a GFC tomorrow I couldn't care less. I will still get the same feeling when I walk in my workshop.

I waited 30 years to own that car, put up with crap jobs and crap employers to get to this point. Living the dream is priceless. 

 

I recon you you've probably made the best investment of your life mate. No bubble when you have such a rare desirable car

 

[Coastr]

Interesting through this thread, there are a couple of references relating to the numbers of the more"common SC and Carreras"....I just wonder how many real ones ( matching numbers , original Aussie delivered) there are out there.

my understanding is that there were either 71 or 107 '78 SC's delivered....I guessing there aren't too many left in original nick.......and I'm guessing the same would apply to the 80's cars......so as people possibly become more focussed on originality, rather than just a porker, and the numbers dwindle, sustained prices should remain......

NOt that many Australian cars but worldwide a lot of delivered SCs and 3.2s.

Australian cars will always fetch more because of the psychology of the market, but they can never get too far out of touch with cars delivered everywhere else.

at the moment it is prices in other parts of the world driving the Australian market, particularly the us market where the majority of supply is.  It used to be the conventional wisdom was that a mid year was 10k, an sc was 15k and a 3.2 20k in the US.  Not any more, and our currency has dropped nearly 40%  in three years.  So worldwide price rise couple with currency drop = higher prices for cars sitting in our shores.

Makes me think of the Balwyn property market.  2.5 years ago, a knock down on 800sq.m was $800k.  1 year ago $1.3M.  Now $1.8M+.  At each stop on this journey , I said this can't continue, tread carefully if buying, cash in if selling, has to correct soon. Wrong.  It continues to defy all the doomsayers.  Very different drivers of course but like all investments, impossible to predict.

Australian property markets : full recourse loans, hIgh stamp duty and choked supply through land development policies means we get long periods of sticky prices rather than crashes.

It's a pity because the occasional market correction would help clear things once in a while, and maybe even convince the banks to try lending on home thing other than residential property.  All the banks have a seriously overweight property loan book, but why wouldn't they? A self perpetuating cycle.

of course while Porsches and property have similarities in that there is a fixed supply of the 'right' ones, nobody actually needs a Porsche.  So a softening of property prices would lead to a localised softening of Porsche prices...maybe except for the fact that Porsches are now a worldwide commodity.