JV911 Posted 27March, 2015 Report Share Posted 27March, 2015 http://www.autoblog.com/2015/03/26/spike-air-cooled-porsche-911-prices/ Edit: actually not a very insightful article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Speedway Posted 27March, 2015 Report Share Posted 27March, 2015 Specutainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraz Posted 27March, 2015 Report Share Posted 27March, 2015 Magnus Walker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastr Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 QE and low interest rates. Internet marketplaces and a worldwide market add fuel to the fire. It's all happened before. At some point there will be a correction. This time it isn't different. Fun to talk about though, makes a change from discussing house prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michel Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 We are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ByronBayChris Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 We are And taxi drivers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npvpositive Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 QE and low interest rates. Internet marketplaces and a worldwide market add fuel to the fire. It's all happened before. At some point there will be a correction. This time it isn't different. Fun to talk about though, makes a change from discussing house prices. +1. This is going to end in tears. Not sure if it will be this year, next year or the year after . . . . but it's going to be so ugly. Share market is booming (despite flat earnings), property marketing is booming, all real assets are booming (art, cars, you name it). How else could this end? When interest rates start to rise the rush for the doors is going to be like nothing we've ever experienced before. Here ends the sermon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusty Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 Agree that prices will come back when whatever economic trigger is pulled but after prices hit the 'bottom,' I cant see air cooled prices languishing there for long. In other words, I don't think you'll be able to buy a 3.2l for the same price you would've paid 5 years ago. Now that these cars are on the investment radar, like Mercedes Pagoda's, Jag E-types etc (insert desirable car here), there's still a growing cachet associated with air-cooled 911's that I believe will see their values climb back up as fast as any economic recovery allows. Of course this all depends on what the economic trigger is and how big the property/share/debt bubble its attached to really is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazzieman Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 +1. This is going to end in tears. Not sure if it will be this year, next year or the year after . . . . but it's going to be so ugly. Share market is booming (despite flat earnings), property marketing is booming, all real assets are booming (art, cars, you name it). How else could this end? When interest rates start to rise the rush for the doors is going to be like nothing we've ever experienced before. I'm just cruising up and down the beach , waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastr Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 I wonder how many recent buys are with borrowed money. That's when forced fire sales happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraz Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 I wonder how many recent buys are with borrowed money. That's when forced fire sales happen. Yep, just take a few interest rate rises and let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ByronBayChris Posted 28March, 2015 Report Share Posted 28March, 2015 I wonder how many recent buys are with borrowed money. That's when forced fire sales happen. I presume mortgage and line of credit.... Nor personal loan. But raise a few points and things might be a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
withers Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 it is very hard to finance a car older than 10 years. I know this because I tried prior to buying the SLK. Even with a great credit record and stacks of equity in my home, I wasn't able to get a separate finance package for the 964 Cab I wanted to buy. Then Phil at Porsche Brighton was able to get it through, only because Porsche have an agreement with Esanda I think it is (can't remember) to finance air-cooled and vintage 911s. And then they bend you over (pardon my crassness) on the interest rate! So I imagine lots of mortgages with a chunk bitten out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazzieman Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 it is very hard to finance a car older than 10 years. http://musclecarfinance.com.au/ But German classics are not their bag, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 I don't quite understand the rational of how & why classic car values are going to plummet? Markets, interest rates, property prices, climate change whatever variables you want to throw into the mix don't detract from the essence of what draws people to classic car ownership. Generally speaking, as most modern materialistic possessions become more disposable (cars being no exception) there will always be a demand and value towards older (& somewhat unique) items. So long as there are people making money and spending money there will be a market for old things, cars being one of the more desirable non essential luxury items and Porsches being towards the top of that list. Cars aren't necessarily a rational purchase and I find it difficult to analyse such a highly speculative projection - all I can say is Id believe there to be more evidence that suggests values will continue to rise than the whole 'doom & gloom' of the world about to end along with Porsche values. This is a global market and there will always be a market for classic cars and so long as that market is dis-proportional to the amount available there will be demand IMO. The only thing I can be sure of is that I own my cars because I love them - and there is nothing rational about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npvpositive Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 Hugh, I'm more pessimistic about a significant correction. . . I think the question is when, not if. The rational for an eventual major correction is the totally discretionary nature of classic cars. When interest rates rise (perhaps at the same time as a significant fall in share market prices and super fund balances) then suddenly the mortgage looks scary and the total indulgence of having a reasonably large amount of money in a toy like an old Porsche becomes much harder to defend. A good parallel is holiday houses. When the GFC hit relatively few people in affluent suburbs sold their homes in panic, or took their kids out of private school, but the holiday house was on the market straight away. At one point I'd guess that over 1/3 of Palm Beach was officially or unofficially on the market! Bowral took years to recover. I think this is particularly true at the moment because, like all late stage financial bubbles, we have reached the phase where people who would not normally invest in the asset class are rushing in. Ferrari Dinos have doubled in just two years! 73RS have done the same. 933TT are up 100% in two years. This is bubble behaviour. You and I are "hard core Porsche guys" but many of the current buyers are not typical classic car owners. They have been attracted/pulled in by the hype and noise around the bubble . . . Petrolicious, Amelia Island, Magnus Walker, etc, This is exactly what happens in every financial bubble. [All the cliches about taxi drivers trading currency or secretaries day trading shares, etc] These same "outsiders" will be the first to put up a for sale sign when times change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-p Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 Very well put Nick. Having lived through a few recessions and stock market crashes etc. it's the folks that have margin loans and are highly geared in other ways that get caught out and have to sell whatever they can to get through and as you rightly say it the toys that go first....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
withers Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 I have no idea what will happen, but do find these types of conversations fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrera86 Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 No one knows ......., but if prices fall and they prob will some time but by how much ? .They will bounce back again and every day there are less and less of these cars around . I bought it to enjoy and drive not as a investment .... life is to short not to ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 Hugh, I'm more pessimistic about a significant correction. . . I think the question is when, not if. The rational for an eventual major correction is the totally discretionary nature of classic cars. When interest rates rise (perhaps at the same time as a significant fall in share market prices and super fund balances) then suddenly the mortgage looks scary and the total indulgence of having a reasonably large amount of money in a toy like an old Porsche becomes much harder to defend. A good parallel is holiday houses. When the GFC hit relatively few people in affluent suburbs sold their homes in panic, or took their kids out of private school, but the holiday house was on the market straight away. At one point I'd guess that over 1/3 of Palm Beach was officially or unofficially on the market! Bowral took years to recover. I think this is particularly true at the moment because, like all late stage financial bubbles, we have reached the phase where people who would not normally invest in the asset class are rushing in. Ferrari Dinos have doubled in just two years! 73RS have done the same. 933TT are up 100% in two years. This is bubble behaviour. You and I are "hard core Porsche guys" but many of the current buyers are not typical classic car owners. They have been attracted/pulled in by the hype and noise around the bubble . . . Petrolicious, Amelia Island, Magnus Walker, etc, This is exactly what happens in every financial bubble. [All the cliches about taxi drivers trading currency or secretaries day trading shares, etc] These same "outsiders" will be the first to put up a for sale sign when times change. I hear you Nick but who then are these people paying 200k for 17+ yo porsche 911's if they are not "porsche guys"? Id think it takes more than hype to pull that kind of money out of someone's pocket? Not that I care either way as I'm not planning to sell, but hey if your right maybe I'll get into my long hood sooner than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastr Posted 29March, 2015 Report Share Posted 29March, 2015 Nobody wants to sell their Porsche, and especially at a knockdown price, but when the margin calls come rolling in, cash is needed. That's how it happens. The holiday house analogy is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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