Porsche Bubble

[Oldmxnut]

Just sharing an observation and I would be interested in the view / opinion of those who have been around and owned the esteemed brand car for much longer then me.  But this is a bubble is it not ???   A 997 GT2 RS listed for $949K.  A current model RS for $650 (double list ?) and a bunch of GT2's for $500..  the wait list for cars not even released in excess of the manufacturing quantity (include me in the sheepishly guilty line up)..  

Justified ?   Irrational pricing or bargains due too …what ?

What further intrigues me is more generally I wouldn't think or say our economy is buzzing along to sustain such a level of discretionary spend.  

[Whytar]

Increasing interest and hype around older and rare Porsches (especially GT and RS cars) has been building for some time. Air cooled cars in particular have become hot property. Whether or not it's a bubble is hard to say, but demand and therefore values don't appear to be abating any time soon. I watched the Southeby Auction live from Paris last week, and air cooled 911's saw very strong bidding compared to some other cars (including some Ferrari's that got passed in).

The theory is that when traditional financial markets become uncertain as they are now, investors turn from 'paper based' commodities to more 'physical' investments. Hence the interest in classic cars from speculators who haven't traditionally traded in such markets.

Having said this, I haven't seen anything before like what is happening now with brand new GT3 RS's being bought at list and then advertised at up to 100% over and above.

 

[tazzieman]

More like a bubblebath. Lots of hot air , one way or another 

[symsy]

Just sharing an observation and I would be interested in the view / opinion of those who have been around and owned the esteemed brand car for much longer then me.  But this is a bubble is it not ???   A 997 GT2 RS listed for $949K.  A current model RS for $650 (double list ?) and a bunch of GT2's for $500..  the wait list for cars not even released in excess of the manufacturing quantity (include me in the sheepishly guilty line up)..  

Justified ?   Irrational pricing or bargains due too …what ?

What further intrigues me is more generally I wouldn't think or say our economy is buzzing along to sustain such a level of discretionary spend.  

Our economy has been bolstered by resources , Im not in to politics , but basically you want to see why the Aus dollar aint strong , because we have gone to great deficits which we never had prior to GFC and dug up and blown a shit load of money on what ..little infrastructure …still not enough airports , decent North South Roads and , resevoirs to name but a few things.

Migrants continue to flock here an take up the slack , theres no long term plans , low to little tech , low or no tax incentives, this country needs a decent economist not the muppet show of politicians, look at many other countries they have fostered growth, longer term, trade and training 

Most poilis trade in markets that have been created or already exists , most dont create a market thats what need to happen in this country 

I love Australia and gave up my Pommie roots to come here 

But seriously , check out the price of cars on say Pistonheads to hear for the so called prize winners, if you gonna send them to a euro market it would mean a big fall in our dollar and paying a lot of tax … the cars for the newer stuff in general are cheaper by quite a lot , look at 997 GT3 RS as abenchmark , we have 10-30% premiums , just for the priveledge of having one here , which means AUD would have to shift down quite a lot to sell there ..

The NEW GT3RS , well a simple game of scarcity …by all means a most amazing car and who isnt interetsted in the new new things , we all are 

In some countries they call that price fixing and seeding the market .. good luck to you if you paid the right dealer , drank an awfull lot of coffee with a dealer or need.

I would like to see great plans for the countty and lots more porsches on the road 

As for auction prices , I am seeing a 10-20% shift on some premium brands and I own one such collectable and along with that a 20-40% spread in what will be paid vs whats things are being sold for overseas… Im not talking P cars so much but have had some dealings with some wanting to buy both my DB5 and TT as a bundle , noT THAT i have really wanted to sell my TT.

Its like many things we love the drama , we all love the game , we get  excited by the hype

Mini rant over , I use to work in the markets generally and to close I have never seen a market without such reccognisable drivers and factors as these , how ever on some levels like many  wish I had ridden the bucking bull a little earlier and for longer , lets see the love of cars last through changing times thats the test of Pcar Passion

 

 

 

 

[Oldmxnut]

Don't get me wrong.. I'm along for the ride and paid over list for a P50 with 7K on the clock and was purely emotional decision.  But I need a decent argument to pay 100% over on something that we are just as likely get a new model off shortly.  I get the current rarity and last of naturally aspirated or last of gt2 etc..  but I cant get past the broader volk group and its financial challenges.  I just see more P cars coming to market of which like Audi then naturally reduces the brand / exclusivity and value.  

Then again it wasn't that long ago that people were paying $1M for ford GTHO's.  

Clearly there are some patient guys out there though.  To hold such cars for years and only put a few km's on them in that time..

Maybe I'm just venting because I cant jump the cue or afford them !!!! 

[MFX]

The toys are always the first to go when things get tough. I am sure prices will drop back but when and how far is anyone's guess. 

[KGB]

Nature doesn't allow exponential growth for very long.

 

[clutch-monkey]

my gut feeling is prices won't go back to the way they were. the ridiculous prices like in the first post might drop back considerably (as did the aforementioned GTHO prices as example) but GT3's, aircooled stuff like 930's, is going to stabilize close to where they are now?

[LeeM]

I still chuckle at the thought of spending $1m on a GTHO. Good investment that one!

[Coastr]

Markets, like coastlines, are choppy from up close but smooth lines from a distance.

the relatively modest gains of run of the mill models will only fall back a bit.   The big numbers for new cars will evaporate in a heartbeat if bigger problems come along.

the 930s are the tricky ones.   Historically they were priced very low.  I see them settling in the mid 100s.  Not sure the massive money for 75/76 models will be sustained.

one thing is for sure - the sales cycle is already lengthening and this will be the biggest change.  More wary buyers doing more due diligence and cars being for sale for 30-90 days will be the norm.

[firstone]

I'll be interested to see how right or wrong we are.

?

[KGB]

I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.

[Shady Speedway]

I'm not sure anybody has ever paid $1M for a GTHO?

Shannons said to me they have never insured one over $500K, ever.

If there is a roll back in prices I think it will be all the models that have been dragged up by the high end / rare stuff that will suffer the greatest losses.

 

[Stew F]

I'm not sure anybody has ever paid $1M for a GTHO?

Shannons said to me they have never insured one over $500K, ever.

If there is a roll back in prices I think it will be all the models that have been dragged up by the high end / rare stuff that will suffer the greatest losses.

 

What about the bloke who paid $920K for that HRT427 Monaro in 2008, and sold it in 2010 for $350K.  Great investment.

[tazzieman]

What about the bloke who paid $920K for that HRT427 Monaro in 2008, and sold it in 2010 for $350K.  Great investment.

And lol @the Duttons blurb

With collector car values soaring upwards the HRT 427 ED0001 being 1 of 2 ever built will definitely stand as a solid investment for a collector or investor maybe both.

[LeeM]

I'm not sure anybody has ever paid $1M for a GTHO?.

 

This was it, and it did sell for either a million, or very close to it. Possibly to Tasmania if I remember correctly

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/see-the-million-dollar-gt-ho/story-e6freuy9-1111114200572

And this one which sold for $750k in the same year

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/ford-falcon-record/2007/06/02/1180205572256.html

And this article. Note the values at the bottom

http://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/ford-falcon-gtho-value-drops-17486

[symsy]

I reckon a car with stripes means it will go up in value , maybe thats whAt is happening with the dude with the Red RS 991 for sale, he seems to have put stripeS on both of his cars.

and Carbon fibre , it could end the like 70's shag pile carpet accessory of this era.

looking at market reality , I do think time will tell .. I have had my car 11 yrs A-Car and 19 Years P-Car

My only other comment is when they become garage queens , they should be considered for training in … the wheels on the car or bus should go round and round , even children know that one .

So if any one , wants to get me within 20% of the 1.5 USD for my car im paying the bounty hunters fee of $50k

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/1965-aston_martin-db5

Or I will swap it for an RS991 at todays street price and cash   Mind you I quite like that purple and it seems hard to come by ….

In all seriousness, having a little bit of cash tied up in these markets having held and sat on at least 3 cars I see a softening overseas  and beyond that not so many punters here with the big coin….. maybe bitcoin but not big coin. you think its hard to sell on carsales , try selling overseas and dealimng with the dealers and buyers .. you need a PA for the bullshit emails and questions alone , local tyre kickers are complcated but overseas ones phew.

Time to go take the TT fo a thrash n the hills , since its been a while since I had to look again at the depreciation curve , may as well offset it with a tacho whizzing round in the alternate direction.. thats why we bought em ultimately folks.

 

[SteveC]

Asking price and selling price rarely coincide

especially when the asking price doesn't meet the market

whether it actually sells is another matter altogether

was talking to the used sales manager at PCM and he said hot property right now is the 993 turbo and the 991 gt3 rs, the rest are just people paying $60 for a car sales ad and perhaps taken a few too many pills and somehow arrived at the price they listed...

or perhaps those who own these such listed cars can chime in?!?

[GUT]

Asking price and selling price rarely coincide

especially when the asking price doesn't meet the market

whether it actually sells is another matter altogether

was talking to the used sales manager at PCM and he said hot property right now is the 993 turbo and the 991 gt3 rs, the rest are just people paying $60 for a car sales ad and perhaps taken a few too many pills and somehow arrived at the price they listed...

or perhaps those who own these such listed cars can chime in?!?

993 turbo might be hot property but with 6 on the market openly on carsales at double and 2.5 times prices a little over a year ago, you've got to wonder. List at around $200k and they'd probably move quickly. Still a hefty premium on a year ago. What's changed except there's more for sale? Supply and demand still applies. We went a whole year with none on carsales - now a flood.

As for other cars - people testing the market drawn out by the lure of high prices. Again, drawing out supply. If demand doesn't match, price must move.

[Oldmxnut]

I think the irrationality isn't going to help. It looks like noise and whilst we all respond to it, ultimately don't like it.  As I said earlier, a supply side constraint generating a positive 10-20% movement or maintaining list price after 1 year / 10Km etc seems to me within the realms of what the market could sustain  / respond too.  But 100% markups' in under a year or immediately upon delivery??  [NB all on assumption someone actually pays close to these asking prices]

Further what about the abuse of process claim with PA.  Lets think about the example I am interested in.  911R.  Going to rare, maybe 5-12 make it to Australia.  Price somewhere around $400.  So there is a "list" of names with deposits of which I'm sitting down the line a bit.  So going on todays irrationality, what say I approach the dealer and split the agreed resale price with him to jump the cue. Big dollars, bigger temptation. Happened before and will happen again.  That would peeve a few people off in the line if discovered of which PA would be in the headlights.