Realestate - buyers, sellers, purveyors and dreamers

[Airhead]

As the water authority responsible for the Fishermans Bend area of Melbourne, our board have just signed off the strategy for the area's predicted growth and it's significant. Wish I'd bought a warehouse in that zone a couple of years ago that's for sure, if it does indeed progress as planned then it'll be a vibrant residential area in the future. 

Bogans will flock there in droves. They'll all want to live on Holden Drive.

[SimonN]

Why is Melbourne growing faster than Sydney?

Sorry to burst your bubble Simon ...

 http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-is-melbourne-growing-faster-than-sydney-20150720-gig1sx.html

Since the 2001 census, Melbourne has added almost a million people to its population, while Sydney has attracted just over 750,000.

Choosing Melbourne and forsaking Sydney, making a difference in population growth since 2001 of more than 20,000 a year.

Melbourne is projected to become larger than Sydney somewhere between 2030 and 2050.

Melbourne 2050: How will we cope with 8 million people.

As  "bloody foreigner", I keep forgetting about the Melbourne-Sydney rivalry. FFS! different strokes for different folks! If we all wanted to live in the same city it would be pretty difficult.

As for bursting my bubble, it does the opposite. The article clearly says that Sydney grew by just over 750,000 people. They all need somewhere to live. I couldn't care if Melbourne gets more because it doesn't change that. And if you look at the projections, both cities will grow by 3-4 million in the next 30-40 years. That says that Sydney will grow by between 75,000 and 100,000 people per year. there is cureently estimated to be a housing shortfall of 100,000 units. Considering that in the last year figures are available for (2015-2016) there were 67,000 new houses and apartments commenced in Sydney, it is estimated by the end of 2017 there will still be a shortfall close to 40,000 units. Expect a slowdown in the number of commencements, but it is very hard to see a real correction in that market in the foreseeable future.

I don't follow the Melbourne market very closely, but it is well reported that there is not an under supply problem there, which is good for those who live there, but does mean that there are real concerns of over supply in the next 2 years as construction completions exceed the population growth. As such, i know a number of developers who are cutting back on their activities in Melbourne to concentrate on Sydney, which is fine for national players but not so good for regional ones and for employment in the construction industry in Melbourne.

[Coastr]

I reckon youse guys are nuts for living in either of those cities.  How many hours in the porka before you get to a decent road?

if I had an extra million people move in where I was...well I'd leave but that is just me.

[KGB]

 

I don't follow the Melbourne market very closely, but it is well reported that there is not an under supply problem there, which is good for those who live there, but does mean that there are real concerns of over supply in the next 2 years as construction completions exceed the population growth. As such, i know a number of developers who are cutting back on their activities in Melbourne to concentrate on Sydney, which is fine for national players but not so good for regional ones and for employment in the construction industry in Melbourne.

It could be considered that a situation of demonstrable under supply of actual houses exists within about 10-12km's from the GPO.  Auctions are generally fiercely fought and vendors expectations exceeded every Saturday.  High sales rates reported weekly.  New apartments are another story...

[DJM]

Agree KGB

I never understand the "over supply" argument and suggestions that it will cause the bubble to burst.  Sure it might be true of CBD apartments at times but that's only a small segment of the 50,000 homes built annually in Vic.  For detached housing, the proportion that is speculative development is minuscule.  The vast majority are "built to order".   Even townhouses are generally built after a certain proportion are pre sold (50%+ is often a banking covenant to fund development).  Unlike North America where they roll out tract housing by the hundreds and then hope to sell when finished, we simply don't have a situation where completed homes sit unsold and unoccupied.  So we're always in under supply of homes most families want..

having said that when whole suburbs are $2M+ it makes you wonder where it's all coming from.....

[KGB]

DJM, you know far more than me on the topic of new constructions, and I agree that the banks have tightened pre-sale conditions markedly.  As usual the quality stuff has no trouble, it's the garbage that will encounter commencement issues.

Is it just me or has the offer of quality, larger apartments being planned, mainly east side, increased.  If so its about time...

[sleazius]

Another one for the 'sh*t views' category:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-lavender+bay-124972962

[firstone]

Stunning. 

Wouldn't mind a week or two there. That'd do.

[LeeM]

  What sorta coin you reckon?

[sleazius]

  What sorta coin you reckon?

They'll be marketing it 5+, probably hopes of anything up to 6. Its a bloody big apartment.

The fact that there is no lift and stairs in the entry will hold it back somewhat though.

 

[LeeM]

Pffft. Doesn't even have a stacker!  

[GUT]

Ok. Since you all sadly missed out on the last one, I have one more house for sale.

Come and get it!

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-surrey+hills-125243958

 

 

[edgy]

Ok. Since you all sadly missed out on the last one, I have one more house for sale.

Come and get it!

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-surrey+hills-125243958

 

Lovely looking place! Good luck with the sale, not that you need it! It'll sell itself.  

 

On the subject, I feel like selling up once our renovations are done, because I'm just frustrated to no end! What is peoples opinions & intel on the Sydney market? I see interest rates slightly bumped up recently and are tipped to increase more in 2018. Which leads me to think the best time for us to sell may be the next 6-12 months? We've held it since 2011 so we are at about the 7 year cycle. 

 

[sleazius]

I did a 18month+ reno which finished roughly 18mths back. Toward the 3/4 mark of it both my wife and I wanted to sell up, totally had the jack. That feeling continued for about 3mths after we finished, but then went away. No plans to move now.

Renos are tough, especially if they take out your kitchen and/or bathrooms for months at a time.

[LeeM]

 No plans to move now.

 Same...well, kinda

 I've just done 3 days of my pet hate, gardening! Will need another 5 years to get over it, as whoever said gardening was therapeutic was lying! Just going to cement over the whole bloody lawn and make some Swans out of old tyres!  

[StevepGT3]

 Same...well, kinda

 I've just done 3 days of my pet hate, gardening! Will need another 5 years to get over it, as whoever said gardening was therapeutic was lying! Just going to cement over the whole bloody lawn and make some Swans out of old tyres!  

I got the Missus a self propelled mower,she loves it.

[Coastr]

All this talk about renos.   Currently doodling sketches on envelopes myself.  But do I want to increase the mortgage and stress levels?  Maybe I should just buy someone else's house with a big shed.

But them there is the massive whack of stamp duty and agents fees to move and current spot can't be beaten.  And values in the area have finally creaked upwards after 10 years stagnant.

Back to doodling.

Does anyone have any recommendation for plan-drawing software of the free variety?  Maybe better than envelopes.

[edgy]

I did a 18month+ reno which finished roughly 18mths back. Toward the 3/4 mark of it both my wife and I wanted to sell up, totally had the jack. That feeling continued for about 3mths after we finished, but then went away. No plans to move now.

Renos are tough, especially if they take out your kitchen and/or bathrooms for months at a time.

This is probably the catalyst for being at wits end, our kitchen is a disaster as we're doing some major surgery on the layout and rear facade of the house... I only have the one bathroom (read 50 year old time warp) at the moment because we've yet to get beyond the plumbing rough in on the new one downstairs, trades, I am constantly chasing.

Then I'm busy on top if it all... the list really goes on, and on! I will never recommend renovating a house you live in to anyone! 

I really hope we have a change of heart at the end like you to be honest! 

 

[KGB]

I got the Missus a self propelled mower,she loves it.

Push mower is better for the figure.

 

[sleazius]

This is probably the catalyst for being at wits end, our kitchen is a disaster as we're doing some major surgery on the layout and rear facade of the house... I only have the one bathroom (read 50 year old time warp) at the moment because we've yet to get beyond the plumbing rough in on the new one downstairs, trades, I am constantly chasing.

Then I'm busy on top if it all... the list really goes on, and on! I will never recommend renovating a house you live in to anyone! 

I really hope we have a change of heart at the end like you to be honest! 

 

We did 5 months without a kitchen. Long story but the kitchen was ripped out on a timeline, the builder then totally muffed it and we ended up waiting on custom steel, and I got to live with a pregnant wife and 2 kids under 5 in a house with nowhere to cook or clean for 5 months. Fun.

I didn't think we'd come back from that one as we felt nothing but contempt for the builder and by association the house, but we did. Like I said we eventually got over it, you can too just give it some time (very easy to say when you aren't in the midst of the shit-storm!).

[StevepGT3]

Push mower is better for the figure.

 

but not for the disposition 

[firstone]

I did a 18month+ reno which finished roughly 18mths back. Toward the 3/4 mark of it both my wife and I wanted to sell up, totally had the jack. That feeling continued for about 3mths after we finished, but then went away. No plans to move now.

Renos are tough, especially if they take out your kitchen and/or bathrooms for months at a time.

A mate renovated a place and sold it. Wished he had lived there to benefit from it. So he renoed the next place immediately and lived the dream they envisaged. 

So many things come into this equation.

If the market for what you have is hot enough and you have a plan for the next I'd go.

The next thing is always better. You know more.

[KGB]

but not for the disposition 

Attitudinal. 

 

[turboT]

anyone need an agent in the East i can highly recommend one. Sold my house a few weeks back:

20 days on the market

over 500 people through the house (carpet is fucked)

32,000 website views

record per sqm price for the suburb ($37,500 - previous was $22,000)

Off to the beach with the family in 5 weeks!

[tazzieman]

 

over 500 people through the house

499 tyre kickers and 1 successful drug dealer? That'd be Sydney for ya!