Thoughts on current market?

[PorkaDan]

What are peoples thoughts on the current market for 911s (specifically 991’s)?

The asking prices on CarSales appear to me to be heavily inflated. As such the dealer buy price is much lower than the current offer prices. I know this isn’t gospel but a few other cars (and one I’m selling) are “about” right’ish.

I’m weighing up, selling and waiting for them to drop a bit, or just to go forth and enjoy and take the risk of a potential 10-20% drop over the next few months.

Help me jebus!

[Carrot01]

if you can afford a 991, then why wait or worry about a potential 10/20% drop 🙂

[symsy]

Inflated..on 991 especially the GT3s in my view , its not like they have proven collectability as such...

More cars are coming to market, not cheaper but perhaps we get more choice .. the fizz and frenzy seems to have abated a little

Cars of equal kind value 997 turbos , 997 GT3 and even 996 .. for me fall in a similar category and range of money.

On the Market dont mean market price or value .. or sold.. I would watch for solds to get a decent gauge

Baselining extravagant items  can be difficult , Porsche people fall in many categories its like Polo.. its a rich mans or womens game.. lets face it ..

Normally Porsche people arent poor..   We may occasionally get foolish and get temporarily poor but generally we recover to buy again.. the addiction runs deep .

I think in terms of market changes and pressures , some have no concern for money and are beyond the price , some have cash to buy but still want to make a stable choice and many..I have fallen in the last two camps in my life , might get a bit of finance..  in which new cars 991 etc have most  accessible finance and many older ones dont ...   

Lets face it some of the interest rates wont cause a fall but will be come a consideration... so I feel theres a spread and perhaps more momentum between cars offered by people who can offer finance and those that cant .. that also twists the baseline reference price on some cars.  Look at the 997s for example.. currently quite a lot on the market .. price hyped for sure .. and not so easy to finance ..and not really selling 

Im not gonna get into investment... the investment is in the smiles snd driving and I feel most investment opportunities come in a turning market in the bullish sense .. not so much in the downward...thats if its is downward..and they normally take a lot longer to go back to the upswing...   Im just watching for the cars that I may perhaps want to be offered and great prices.

Im crystal ball gazing like many.. and playing with my balls too no doubt 

[cafe_racer]

Any car I buy I expect it to drop in value because I drive them. Some make more sense than others. Getting a new M3 and putting 10,000k’s on it might cost you more than a GT3. But hey, buy what you like and can afford. And if you can only afford it because you are planning for it not to depreciate, well then, you can’t afford it. 
 

So far as current advertised prices. Time to start low balling people! 

[sleazius]

The market is inflated but hopefully the heat is coming out of it.

All the banks are forecasting 20%+ house price drops, you'd be nuts to think that late model cars are going to be the exception to that rule.

Usually when housing drops, late model cars sink like a stone. Obviously there are some supply issues and potentially 'manufactured' supply issues that are propping the market up but that will only go so far when people can't borrow money.

[edgy]

The market is cooked... the reality is it was coming off the boil end of last year start of this year! Dealers & car manufacturers would find it very inconvenient to admit there's improvements in supply, not saying that is a broad theme, but more specific market segments seemingly have supply, with little uptake (i.e. 996/7 GT3, some Volkswagen products etc)  

People are certainly still throwing out the baits, belting the burley buckets to attract that strike, but it isn't converting into sales... 

That being said, I know a lot of stuff is trading off market and then the cars that do make it to market, that are good examples with a price to sell, they tend to move fast! 

[GT3MEZ]

If the AU housing market depreciates by 20%, there will not be an Aussie bank still standing!

The value of your Porsche will be the least of your issues!

[sleazius]

1 hour ago, GT3MEZ said:

If the AU housing market depreciates by 20%, there will not be an Aussie bank still standing!

The value of your Porsche will be the least of your issues!

20% drop would still mean that houses are approximately 5% higher than pre-pandemic. I'd say that being the case the banks will be fine. I'd be more worried about those that mortgaged themselves during the covid frenzy.

edit:

 

[GT3MEZ]

Median Australia house price in Q122 was $738k.

Average mortgage value was $620k.

~60% of the debt held by Aussie banks is in household mortgages.

Still think a 20% reduction is capital value will be ok?

 

[edgy]

If a household's going concern is stable, I can't see the issue with a contraction in house values, unless they are using their balance sheet to fund their going concern.... only then does it gets dangerous, very dangerous! 

[Sov]

Word at the dealer level is "be prepared to start negotiating on prices again by EOY". Cars are coming, and buyers are falling over. NFA.

[mc968cs]

There are now 50% more Porsche coupes second hand on carsales than in November and December 2021. Now over 400….and around 40 gt3 variants. Massive shift. 
 

I think it’s already turned with more to come but time will tell!  

[sleazius]

2 hours ago, GT3MEZ said:

Still think a 20% reduction is capital value will be ok?

At least for the big 4, yes.

The only issue is if defaults increase, and that isn't dependent on house valuations. Given that employment is at an all time high, chance of defaults on greater than 5% of mortgages will be minimal at this stage. Obviously if consumer confidence crashes that could change.

On the individual level if someone leveraged themselves up with debt for soft assets like holiday houses, cars, boats, jet skis, watches, and junk - I'd be worried. Good luck selling any of it for anywhere near what the mortgaged value is.

Synopsis of a larger fitch report where they stress tested the banks, the tldr is that unless houses crash 30%, and crucially unless defaults get past 5%, they should be fine;

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/australian-bank-ratings-should-withstand-moderate-housing-downturn-12-07-2022

1 hour ago, the_sovereign_man said:

Word at the dealer level is "be prepared to start negotiating on prices again by EOY". Cars are coming, and buyers are falling over. NFA.

Music to my ears

[PorkaDan]

Thanks for the replys all. Yeah it's not a matter of being able to afford one, but being a bit smart about the decision and curbing the impulse to just buy one now. If I can wait it out and low ball a bit I can save $20-40k on current asking prices which is a huge amount. I'm not looking at it as an investment at all, just wanna have some fun and not waste too much cash whilst I do it haha.

 

 

[Joz]

Everyone got their car under different circumstances. 
if it’s disposable cash that’s not critical to your living enjoy it.

[ArthurK]

4 hours ago, PorkaDan said:

Thanks for the replys all. Yeah it's not a matter of being able to afford one, but being a bit smart about the decision and curbing the impulse to just buy one now. If I can wait it out and low ball a bit I can save $20-40k on current asking prices which is a huge amount. I'm not looking at it as an investment at all, just wanna have some fun and not waste too much cash whilst I do it haha.

 

 

If it was me I would be waiting. Others will tell you time is too short to wait. I bought my 991.2 GTS in 2019 and the "value" has supposedly gone up Would I buy it now under current pricing? No. Do I think its worth what I bought it for in 2019? No, I still believe its worth less. I tend think I am more realistic than most and a bit more practical and the only reason why we have the pricing we have is a pure FOMO effect. The only other reason the 991s are holding value is the fact the 992 is so much more expensive in the model range overall. When a 992 GTS can nudge $400K there is something wrong.......

Hold fire and get a nicer car for the $$$ you are looking at spending. It will happen so dont stress  

 

[ArthurK]

7 hours ago, sleazius said:

20% drop would still mean that houses are approximately 5% higher than pre-pandemic. I'd say that being the case the banks will be fine. I'd be more worried about those that mortgaged themselves during the covid frenzy.

 

 

 

I have a simplistic view on the property market. If you are not on a 95% borrowing with LMI then you should be ok. If people have really stretched themselves that far then they were going to be screwed at a 1% increase let alone a 3% increase. In Jan 2020 we bought a place with a 30 day settlement. An opportunistic purchase and no pre approval. Cut a long story really short, we settled on the property without the bank and for the next 3 months we were still arguing serviceability. Go figure. Finally got the loan approved at 100% plus expenses. They really did go crazy for a short period in 2020 and then relaxed again in 2021. 

The people on honey moon rate and fixed interest loans that will be trying to refinance now are the ones that are really going to struggle with the loss of equity and higher serviceability rates. Otherwise you are not going to have a bank do a margin call on a loan, especially on ones that are making repayments.

[symsy]

18 hours ago, cafe_racer said:

 

So far as current advertised prices. Time to start low balling people! 

Oh that would be so offensive .. what hurting their feelings ...they might be enthusiasts..   What would these people say on the forums..  

8 hours ago, ArthurK said:

If it was me I would be waiting. Others will tell you time is too short to wait. I bought my 991.2 GTS in 2019 and the "value" has supposedly gone up Would I buy it now under current pricing? No. Do I think its worth what I bought it for in 2019? No, I still believe its worth less. I tend think I am more realistic than most and a bit more practical and the only reason why we have the pricing we have is a pure FOMO effect. The only other reason the 991s are holding value is the fact the 992 is so much more expensive in the model range overall. When a 992 GTS can nudge $400K there is something wrong.......

Hold fire and get a nicer car for the $$$ you are looking at spending. It will happen so dont stress  

 

You need change in life and I would be happy to start negotiating at  your 2019 price baseline  Especially with a white car ..You could buy the new RS ..

[The Bern Dog Experience]

Based on this 991.1 GTS that went on hold today, this shows the right car sells. 

I paid a hell of a lot less 13 months ago for my C4 GTS from a Porsche dealer with only 8,000km.......

[PorkaDan]

Yeah wow, I wonder what the actual offer price was. I guess it’s the last NA GTS which may be good for an investment. 

[Sov]

21 hours ago, The Bern Dog Experience said:

Based on this 991.1 GTS that went on hold today, this shows the right car sells. 

I paid a hell of a lot less 13 months ago for my C4 GTS from a Porsche dealer with only 8,000km.......

My friend has the Carrera 4 GTS that's on CS. Had enquiry the same day listed. There's buyers out there still.

[JWM]

22 hours ago, The Bern Dog Experience said:

Based on this 991.1 GTS that went on hold today, this shows the right car sells. 

Or maybe not. Looks like it’s still for sale … I don’t know if this is a new tactic for sellers or just buyers falling through but I noticed a few cars lately go on hold/sold then reappear. 

[FiftyH]

15 hours ago, JWM said:

Or maybe not. Looks like it’s still for sale … I don’t know if this is a new tactic for sellers or just buyers falling through but I noticed a few cars lately go on hold/sold then reappear. 

thats because people do that to re-generate interest in the ad as it re-appears on buyers saved searches etc.  its all just sales tactics.  I for one have never seen so many GT3s for sale at once, i dont think the market will hold up for much longer. 

[Sov]

9 minutes ago, FiftyH said:

i dont think the market will hold up for much longer. 

You must be a buyer 

[P-Kay]

1 hour ago, FiftyH said:

seen so many GT3s for sale at once

That's because StuttFest has been postponed!

Big call, but I 'reckon wait until the time gets closer to next years event and it will look different (spoken by an owner )