Thoughts on current market?

[HWY]

Good thing the CS is free option! haha

[Sov]

On 17/08/2022 at 18:27, sleazius said:

Synopsis of a larger fitch report where they stress tested the banks, the tldr is that unless houses crash 30%, and crucially unless defaults get past 5%, they should be fine;

Mortgage arrears are at their lowest levels in two decades. There will be no property crash.

[sleazius]

46 minutes ago, the_sovereign_man said:

Mortgage arrears are at their lowest levels in two decades. There will be no property crash.

The only thing to prop it up is new immigrants.

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/sydney-house-prices-fall-1-9pc-in-just-four-weeks-20220725-p5b4aq

or this one:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/sydney-house-prices-fall-at-their-fastest-pace-in-more-than-32-years

and here is an article talking about August:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-01/house-price-plunge-continues-corelogic-proptrack/101392116

"CoreLogic's home value index slumped 1.6 per cent in August, the biggest national monthly decline since 1983."

[flamingporsche]

Ahh, statistics.  Unless you have bought a property 12mths ago and sell the exact same property today for 1.9% less then it's all smoke n mirrors...

A buyer today with a wallet that has a diminishing buying power will lower their expectations and buy into a bracket that they can reliably afford.  More sales into that cheaper housing level naturally lowers the median price paid in the market at this point in time.  Then the media jumps on and says your property has declined in value when in reality the buying power has declined.  I'm not going to say that some property prices won't fall, however taking the average price in the market as the basket price is misleading downright lazy journalism. 

The low levels of arrears, and high levels of "advance" payments gives a fair bit of buffer to the market to ride out the rebalancing of interest rates to an historically normal level.  Current interest rates are still historically "cheap".

[sleazius]

Very true - but those spruiking that prices aren't decreasing, or that there isn't a market crash happening as we speak, I'm guessing have a vested interest in prices staying put.

[flamingporsche]

15 minutes ago, sleazius said:

Very true - but those spruiking that prices aren't decreasing, or that there isn't a market crash happening as we speak, I'm guessing have a vested interest in prices staying put.

Everyone? (maybe not new entrants, but everyone else..)  

[sleazius]

8 minutes ago, flamingporsche said:

Everyone? (maybe not new entrants, but everyone else..)  

I may have mis-interpreted this, but society only functions when your firefighters, police, ambos, and aged-carers (essential services in general) can afford decent housing. The solution isn't rising wages like most people think, its actually affordable housing. Wages can't hope to keep pace when houses are rising at 15%+ a year.

I think Boomers in general (as the largest collective holders of residential property) should be on the bandwagon of lower prices. Unless they all plan on looking after themselves in the nursing homes, or plan on never needing in home care (impossible to know). Might be time to vote in policies that make housing more affordable so that young people see work in the essential services as a viable career choice.

*disclaimer: I am a property owner, so I'm not just asking Boomers to take one for the team here. I'm also not young enough that any policy changes would benefit me.

[on_booost]

The best time to invest was yesterday.

[LeeM]

 I'm just not believing all the media crap about values/prices dropping when real estate auction clearances are at an all time high, and still getting record prices

[Carrot01]

yep, Perth is not showing any signs of slowing (in the good areas that I watch anyway)

[GT3MEZ]

Mortgage serviceability is the issue not decreasing capital value. 

[Bugs77]

Yep Perth is still going up, fueled by many buyers/investors from the east, it has a long way to go before the prices reach eastern levels of unobtainium. And there is plenty of work with high wages as we seam to have something to dig up and ship out depending on the market, not to mention maintenance work on all that infrastructure, and wheat production is going mental at a time it's not elsewhere due to wars. The west does not run in accordance to the east, usually the opposite. Can't wait for things to crash over there so we can buy back all our good cars at a fair price

 

[mc968cs]

It’s just timing…..I’ve flown into that same west with 55 engineers in my wa team working on signed multi year contracts and met with execs from a large well respected wa business who just said flat out….’stop work we won’t pay you after Friday….regardless what our contract says’.    
 

Was all because of what was happening to demand for that dig up and ship out stuff…outside that same west.  It’s not immune.  seriously….that’s just funny 

[sleazius]

[Coastr]

What was happening 17-19?  Sorry wasn’t around 

[JWM]

4 minutes ago, Coastr said:

What was happening 17-19?  Sorry wasn’t around 

My wife insisted on buying a new house, which we did, thus triggering a market crash. 😂 … Also APRA tightened lending standards, banks slowed lending, market softened…

[Coastr]

Oh was that the royal commission stuff?  Well lending certainly is now a royal pita - thats for sure.  Unless you’re a first home buyer, that seems to be simple.  I guess all dealers want to get new users hooked on their gear.   Volumes of paperwork and increasing tenancy focussed laws, residential property investing is not something I’m interested in anymore.  Only the house I live in.  And increase in price for that are a PITA because moving then triggers massive payments to agents and the government.  Just moving down my street to an equivalent house equals donating a Porsche to the government.  What a mess - an economy obsessed with non productive housing, friction on mobility, commuting pressure on inadequate transport systems caused by high priced housing near concentrated employment areas and a fragile banking system which relies on new suckers signing up for 7 digit loans.  10 years of declining or static house prices would be a good thing. 

[flamingporsche]

15 hours ago, sleazius said:

 

Not disputing that some prices may have softened, but again, this is median price data which is a reflection of borrowing capacity rather than actual prices.  Unless they can get a grab bag of 1000s of houses that were bought then sold 12-24mths later for 5-15% losses then I call BS on the chart saying your house really value dropped X% in those windows of time.  

[wilburforce]

17 hours ago, sleazius said:

 

It's easy to focus on the micro wins and losses - over time it's always a different story.

 

1 hour ago, flamingporsche said:

Not disputing that some prices may have softened, but again, this is median price data which is a reflection of borrowing capacity rather than actual prices.  Unless they can get a grab bag of 1000s of houses that were bought then sold 12-24mths later for 5-15% losses then I call BS on the chart saying your house really value dropped X% in those windows of time.  

100% on this.  Median reflects many different types of dwelling in many different types of areas.  It's rarely accurate to apply a median result to a particular property - this data is generally best used to make comparisons in the overall market.

 

[smit2100]

18 hours ago, mc968cs said:

It’s just timing…..I’ve flown into that same west with 55 engineers in my wa team working on signed multi year contracts and met with execs from a large well respected wa business who just said flat out….’stop work we won’t pay you after Friday….regardless what our contract says’.    
 

Was all because of what was happening to demand for that dig up and ship out stuff…outside that same west.  It’s not immune.  seriously….that’s just funny 

 

18 hours ago, mc968cs said:

It’s just timing…..I’ve flown into that same west with 55 engineers in my wa team working on signed multi year contracts and met with execs from a large well respected wa business who just said flat out….’stop work we won’t pay you after Friday….regardless what our contract says’.    
 

Was all because of what was happening to demand for that dig up and ship out stuff…outside that same west.  It’s not immune.  seriously….that’s just funny 

So the not paying  after a date sounds like chest thumping, or you telling us a mistep with respect to your termination clause at convenience.  Still well respected company post that as you see it  or just you succumbed to them being too big to p#$% off for the next round of feasting work of  after the next famine.   

2 minutes ago, smit2100 said:

 

So the not paying  after a date sounds like chest thumping, or you telling us a mistep with respect to your termination clause at convenience.  Still well respected company post that as you see it  or just you succumbed to them being too big to p#$% off for the next round of feasting work  after the next famine.   

 

[GT3MEZ]

Not sure these folks got the memo........

 

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/1996-porsche-911-turbo-993-manual-awd/OAG-AD-21052474?fbclid=IwAR19KGSs7re9v9UOgSPEGOEbiRQmJDV53sgDlmy8vb1z6qf5Y2Gz_8L3zOA

 

[on_booost]

1 hour ago, GT3MEZ said:

Not sure these folks got the memo........

 

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/1996-porsche-911-turbo-993-manual-awd/OAG-AD-21052474?fbclid=IwAR19KGSs7re9v9UOgSPEGOEbiRQmJDV53sgDlmy8vb1z6qf5Y2Gz_8L3zOA

 

There is no doubting its a lovely car, however investment grade my ass. 

60K on the clock? Not a single option? Stock plain jane colour? Puuuuhlease!

On reflection doesn't have a stone chip I can see - so could be a cosmetic restoration.... but doesn't account for the rusty bolts?

[James P]

A few 993 turbos have traded off market lately, most would be very surprised at the high numbers these car are achieving 

[sleazius]

1 hour ago, James P said:

A few 993 turbos have traded off market lately, most would be very surprised at the high numbers these car are achieving 

Plenty of people still cashed up. Higher interest rates only affect the 35% of the market who have a mortgage initially, and currently ~40% of those loans are fixed at very low rates. Would love to have some data on the average age of the punters who are buying 993 turbos >$500k - I reckon I could take a very accurate stab in the dark though.

 

 

[smit2100]

49 minutes ago, sleazius said:

Plenty of people still cashed up. Higher interest rates only affect the 35% of the market who have a mortgage initially, and currently ~40% of those loans are fixed at very low rates. Would love to have some data on the average age of the punters who are buying 993 turbos >$500k - I reckon I could take a very accurate stab in the dark though.

 

 

Let me have a crack of that stab.  Circa the age where your  transitioning  so you could make  cars and coffee a regular weekday event in addition to the odd  Sunday.   With limited personnal garage space, its parked away from home at the back  corner of a factory that is deriving income under a SMS.