CapnHyaku Posted 2January, 2023 Report Share Posted 2January, 2023 So I had a feeling I was seeing more results lately, maybe related to rate hikes. Some others in various chats said the same. So I went through my emails and compiled the data. It is based purely on 911 Manual Coupe alerts from CarSales. I have not pulled out any other data, just the total number per day. I have not scrubbed any "new" results that seem to be triggered if an ad for the same car is pulled then relisted. It's just the daily number. Below is what I got for the year. The red line is a 10 day moving average. Orange is the RBA rate hikes. JWM, Zelrik911, tomo and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilson59 Posted 2January, 2023 Report Share Posted 2January, 2023 Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mc968cs Posted 2January, 2023 Report Share Posted 2January, 2023 Amazing data. What are your takeaways? The sales listing rate doubled as rates rose in 2022? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapnHyaku Posted 2January, 2023 Author Report Share Posted 2January, 2023 I think the rate rises caused significant increase in people shedding their expensive toys maybe. I think it's interesting the first .25 interest rate hike did not seem to have a big impact, but the first two .50 rounds definitely caused some people to sell. Not sure why the sudden change in December though. I did have a quick look at December 2021 and nothing stood out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakroo Posted 3January, 2023 Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 Be careful with the scaling of the data when trying to read and interpret the data. An increase of 1 extra alert on the left hand side is not a good scale or indicator. What is the definition of the alert? Price rise, price reduction, new listing? If it's any one of those, then the alert count is misinformation. The formatting is also throwing you, there are lines that are simply going up and down, one has a red colour that is dragging your eye, and along with a difference in it's thickness to the others, it's helping you draw incorrect conclusions. The indicator to be trying to understand whether interest rates are influencing it, is number of cars for sale. You could also try to understand whether a price reduction of a range ie less than 5% reduction, 5-7.5% reduction and so on is occurring and then whether any of of those ranges is being influenced. But to truly understand either of these, you'd need to go back in time to see whether interest rate reductions are also influencing numbers for sale. Sorry, but with 25+ years in analytics behind me, there's no conclusion, correlation or causation to see in the data at this point in time. DJM and luzzo 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeM Posted 3January, 2023 Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 😅 Nerds Mondo74, Mike D'Silva, micknine01 and 6 others 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edgy Posted 3January, 2023 Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 11 minutes ago, jakroo said: Be careful with the scaling of the data when trying to read and interpret the data. An increase of 1 extra alert on the left hand side is not a good scale or indicator. What is the definition of the alert? Price rise, price reduction, new listing? If it's any one of those, then the alert count is misinformation. The formatting is also throwing you, there are lines that are simply going up and down, one has a red colour that is dragging your eye, and along with a difference in it's thickness to the others, it's helping you draw incorrect conclusions. The indicator to be trying to understand whether interest rates are influencing it, is number of cars for sale. You could also try to understand whether a price reduction of a range ie less than 5% reduction, 5-7.5% reduction and so on is occurring and then whether any of of those ranges is being influenced. But to truly understand either of these, you'd need to go back in time to see whether interest rate reductions are also influencing numbers for sale. Sorry, but with 25+ years in analytics behind me, there's no conclusion, correlation or causation to see in the data at this point in time. Tend to agree, without the transactional data this is merely a rough indicator of market volume, let alone the other driving factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilson59 Posted 3January, 2023 Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 45 minutes ago, LeeM said: 😅 Nerds I am only halfway through analysing the data. I am taking into consideration the colder months as well and the price of lettuce jumping. tk111, CapnHyaku, LeeM and 2 others 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapnHyaku Posted 3January, 2023 Author Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, jakroo said: new listing It's the alert for new listings. You get a total number for that day, or 0 (no email). So most of the time it is 0 or 1 listing. 1 hour ago, jakroo said: The indicator to be trying to understand whether interest rates are influencing it, is number of cars for sale. The only data I have is the alert emails. The objective was to see if my "feeling" I was seeing more alerts or not was true. Which is true, there are more as per the moving 10 day average. 1 hour ago, jakroo said: But to truly understand either of these, you'd need to go back in time Would like to, but can't be arsed and only have the data for a few years. As I said, I wanted to test if my hunch was correct. 1 hour ago, jakroo said: correlation Really? You see 0 correlation here at all? I can understand that more data and analysis would be useful, but I don't understand there's nothing here at all that makes you go "hmmm..." Edited 3January, 2023 by CapnHyaku Grammar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakroo Posted 3January, 2023 Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 There's a saying in analytics. If you torture the data enough, it'll tell you what you want to hear. I'm not saying don't do the analysis, what I'm trying to say is it it's a better use of one's time to collate, cleanse and present it if one has the right focus. In this case, you're looking at numbers of alerts using increments of one. If you were seeing increments of cars being listed in 10s or multiples of them then there may be something in it. You can mash any data together and paint a picture. I once saw the analysis of govt spend on military dollars overlaying that of a country allowing women to vote. As more women voted, military spend went up. A very strong correlation but in no way did they actually relate to each other ie no causation at all and was pure coincidence. FAP911, DJM and wilson59 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapnHyaku Posted 3January, 2023 Author Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 15 hours ago, jakroo said: In this case, you're looking at numbers of alerts using increments of one. Just be super clear... it's not the number of alerts. It's the number of new listings per day. With an alert set, you get one or two emails per day with a list of 1 or more new listings. It's the only data there is besides a paid subscription like the dealers have. The new listings are only less than 10 per day (not a lot of 911 Manual Coupe come up for sale every day) 🙂 15 hours ago, jakroo said: You can mash any data together and paint a picture. In this case, it's the only data I have. But it was the data I was most interested in, as I and others had a feeling more were coming up for sale (i.e. new listings appearing). 15 hours ago, jakroo said: A very strong correlation but in no way did they actually relate to each other Yep, very familiar with the old adage. Same with number of pirates and GHG emissions. However I strongly of the opinion that correlation is a big flag from the data saying "hey look over here and think about this!" 🙂 Hence after seeing the number of new listings were increasing I plotted the RBA rate to see if any correlation. Now it's clear this is new listings, not number of alerts. Keen to keep it going. Any suggestions for other data to overlay? The other alert emails I have are too skewed (i.e. cars I have decided to save and watch, not all cars). I have the number of new listings per day for Boxter Manuals, Cab Manuals and Turbo Manuals but don't feel up to the manual mining of my emails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAC911 Posted 3January, 2023 Report Share Posted 3January, 2023 Interesting. I've been following 996.2 manual coupes for 2 years, there's been consistently 13-16 listings at any one time over that period.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjm Posted 4January, 2023 Report Share Posted 4January, 2023 Funny thing when I look on Carsales, Punch in Porsche 911, manual, coupe, price low to high. There are always several convertibles in the coupe section. How many other misleading stats are there? NAC911 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleazius Posted 4January, 2023 Report Share Posted 4January, 2023 Can't tell you how many manuals are listed over time, but can tell you that total 911s listed for sale is still climbing. Now more than double the low point during covid - make of that what you will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mc968cs Posted 4January, 2023 Report Share Posted 4January, 2023 1 hour ago, sleazius said: Can't tell you how many manuals are listed over time, but can tell you that total 911s listed for sale is still climbing. Now more than double the low point during covid - make of that what you will. Correct. The listing total for Porsche coupes second hand in carsales has doubled in 1 year. Ie 2 listed for each sold (roughly). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAC911 Posted 4January, 2023 Report Share Posted 4January, 2023 14 hours ago, sjm said: Funny thing when I look on Carsales, Punch in Porsche 911, manual, coupe, price low to high. There are always several convertibles in the coupe section. How many other misleading stats are there? Yes!! Convertibles and Targas, I've noticed this too. sjm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve996 Posted 4January, 2023 Report Share Posted 4January, 2023 13-16? Carsales only shows 8, 3 of which are 4S and zero are .2 Carreras. Hardly a glut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAC911 Posted 4January, 2023 Report Share Posted 4January, 2023 2 minutes ago, Steve996 said: 13-16? Carsales only shows 8, 3 of which are 4S and zero are .2 Carreras. Hardly a glut. Exactly my point... 13-16 included Turbo's, GT's and wrongly listed cabs and targas. There's currently no .2 coupes for sale and they only come up occasionally. Steve996 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MFX Posted 5January, 2023 Report Share Posted 5January, 2023 On 04/01/2023 at 16:50, sjm said: Funny thing when I look on Carsales, Punch in Porsche 911, manual, coupe, price low to high. There are always several convertibles in the coupe section. How many other misleading stats are there? I never understand this weird tactic, of advertising a cab as a coupe and using photo's front on , or from some angle so as you can't easily see it is a cab or targa. Same with saying a tip is a manual and only showing interior pics cutting out the gear stick. It is not like the buyers are going to turn up and go 'Ah, it is not a manual coupe but I will buy it anyway' 🤪 NAC911 and sjm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleazius Posted 5January, 2023 Report Share Posted 5January, 2023 3 hours ago, MFX said: It is not like the buyers are going to turn up and go 'Ah, it is not a manual coupe but I will buy it anyway' 🤪 I think some sellers think they will. TwoHeadsTas, MFX and NAC911 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjm Posted 5January, 2023 Report Share Posted 5January, 2023 13 hours ago, MFX said: I never understand this weird tactic, of advertising a cab as a coupe and using photo's front on , or from some angle so as you can't easily see it is a cab or targa. Same with saying a tip is a manual and only showing interior pics cutting out the gear stick. It is not like the buyers are going to turn up and go 'Ah, it is not a manual coupe but I will buy it anyway' 🤪 Just remembered when I was looking for a manual coupe, a 996 4S came up on CS local to me. Traveled other side of town to find an import 😳. Should’ve bought it though, at $40k it was cheap. I saw it advertised a year or so later at $80k. Manual in Midnight blue☹️ Yeatesy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crsedge Posted 7January, 2023 Report Share Posted 7January, 2023 Well here you go, my manual 996.1 C2 coupe for sale to add to the stats (and lowest priced on the market)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clean911 Posted 19March, 2023 Report Share Posted 19March, 2023 Beginning 2022 there were 74 manual 911 for sale.....now there is 170ish, (19/03/2023) Watch Charts which values luxury watches have had an average 35% fall in values over the last 12 months....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleazius Posted 19March, 2023 Report Share Posted 19March, 2023 4 hours ago, clean911 said: Beginning 2022 there were 74 manual 911 for sale.....now there is 170ish, (19/03/2023) Watch Charts which values luxury watches have had an average 35% fall in values over the last 12 months....... There are more than double the number of 911s listed compared to the low point during covid. Prices haven't really changed much as yet. Watches needed to drop dramatically, rolex in particular went nuts during covid. Double retail for a rolex isn't much chop! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
t888 Posted 20March, 2023 Report Share Posted 20March, 2023 would be good to track number of cars up for sale, average price, average kms Like this guy does (US market i think?) sjm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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