981 981 Cayman/Boxster Market Watch / How many manual 981CS's were delivered (ANSWERED)

[JLD]

16 minutes ago, LeeM said:

 I've wanted to ask this for ages, so...

Why do buyers ask how many of a particular model were delivered here? 

 Is it to see if they're going to have trouble finding one? For the 'future value' so they can justify their purchase and future sale? Or am I missing something here? 🤔 

 

 

I would think to know how likely you'd be to find one

[Troubleshooter]

1 hour ago, LeeM said:

 I've wanted to ask this for ages, so...

Why do buyers ask how many of a particular model were delivered here? 

 Is it to see if they're going to have trouble finding one? For the 'future value' so they can justify their purchase and future sale? Or am I missing something here? 🤔 

 

 

Well I asked as I've browsed in the back of my mind for ages, on my sorta maybes one day possibly list of cars, maybe getting a man 981S Boxster. Reading here the numbers of man Caymans (S) being hard to find it interested me enough to find out if the same in a Coxster was as thin on the ground. Just out of interest ...

[JWM]

I just like to count things @LeeM

[mmm]

I'd love to know what logic is being used to justify asking $100k for a car that was bid to $79k in two separate auctions. The market has clearly shown what the car is worth. 

The vast majority of recent auction sales have also been around 20% lower than asking prices on Carsales. The market has changed markedly even over the last 6 months. 

On 22/12/2023 at 18:14, Summon said:

Hi Kov - we've got the yellow 981 S manual at the moment (was passed in at CC earlier this year).  All the details are in the ad on carsales but if you'd like to chat, feel free to flick me a message.  As others have said, the manual v auto is probably the biggest decision and the extra poke of the S will only be of use in some circumstances....I'm more of a 'base spec' guy however plenty plump for the S with the extra engine and fruit.

 

[Summon]

17 minutes ago, mmm said:

I'd love to know what logic is being used to justify asking $100k for a car that was bid to $79k in two separate auctions. The market has clearly shown what the car is worth. 

The vast majority of recent auction sales have also been around 20% lower than asking prices on Carsales. The market has changed markedly even over the last 6 months. 

 

There are two components in the answer to that question - one being 'auction v private sale' and the other being market data.

My short opinion is that auction processes (if you are remote and cannot have the car ppi'd) carry their own risk.  You can sometimes grab a bargain but you are not readily able to perform the usual range of checks you would on a vehicle that can be privately inspected, driven and sent to a workshop for a ppi.  Hence an auction car will usually sell at a discount - unless of course you happen to have two or more people desperate for that particular car...in which case it can fetch over market.  This is purely my opinion - others may have their own.  If I was to purchase at auction, without access to the usual risk mitigation processes...I'd expect it to be factored into the purchase price (and you then usually have the buyer premium on top of the sale price...which also has to be used in calculations).

In terms of the current listing price of this vehicle - we use 3 - 12 months of data (depending on the volume for that model) to give our clients a listing range (based on where similar cars were listed when they sold).  Our clients then decide where to list.  Naturally a listing price is not the same as a selling price, yet there is some relationship between the two, albeit non-linear.  As such, the current listing price was chosen based on market data (rather than my personal thoughts and the car's auction history) over the past 3 - 6 months.  Naturally, most sellers list a car at the top of their listing range and move as required (unless they are operating under time constraints).

In this particular instance, I think the two answers correlate reasonably well together, based on private sale market data and previous auction results.  We currently have a 20 - 25% difference between the two...which is about right for this part of the process.

[NBTBRV8]

19 minutes ago, mmm said:

I'd love to know what logic is being used to justify asking $100k for a car that was bid to $79k in two separate auctions. The market has clearly shown what the car is worth. 

The vast majority of recent auction sales have also been around 20% lower than asking prices on Carsales. The market has changed markedly even over the last 6 months. 

 

As a seller most are willing on the Covid bubble, Porsche is especially bad for it across all the models.  I see the market has responded in the UK and US, so we'll just wait and see how long the lag goes for here before we follow suit.  IMHO now is not the time to be buying a Porsche.

2 minutes ago, Summon said:

There are two components in the answer to that question - one being 'auction v private sale' and the other being market data.

My short opinion is that auction processes (if you are remote and cannot have the car ppi'd) carry their own risk.  You can sometimes grab a bargain but you are not readily able to perform the usual range of checks you would on a vehicle that can be privately inspected, driven and sent to a workshop for a ppi.  Hence an auction car will usually sell at a discount - unless of course you happen to have two or more people desperate for that particular car...in which case it can fetch over market.  This is purely my opinion - others may have their own.  If I was to purchase at auction, without access to the usual risk mitigation processes...I'd expect it to be factored into the purchase price (and you then usually have the buyer premium on top of the sale price...which also has to be used in calculations).

In terms of the current listing price of this vehicle - we use 3 - 12 months of data (depending on the volume for that model) to give our clients a listing range (based on where similar cars were listed when they sold).  Our clients then decide where to list.  Naturally a listing price is not the same as a selling price, yet there is some relationship between the two, albeit non-linear.  As such, the current listing price was chosen based on market data (rather than my personal thoughts and the car's auction history) over the past 3 - 6 months.  Naturally, most sellers list a car at the top of their listing range and move as required (unless they are operating under time constraints).

In this particular instance, I think the two answers correlate reasonably well together, based on private sale market data and previous auction results.  We currently have a 20 - 25% difference between the two...which is about right for this part of the process.

Also financing a car at auction is problematic, so that knocks a few out of the race.  But generally I agree with the above.

A word of warning though on last listed prices, I have seen in the past cars get sold and the seller lifts the price on the listing right before they mark it as sold.

The other point is that generally wholesale offers are down, but sellers are use to the covid bubble so believe they can get way more than the wholesale market, where as before the delta would have been a bit closer.  So it is just a waiting game for sellers to come to the realisation that they aren't getting enquiries.

Three things sell a car in the main:

1. Condition

2. Location

3. Price

If you aren't getting enquiries adjust one of the three that is most out of sync with the market.

The last point as a private seller be very careful about dropping small price increments, dealers use this against you to talk down the value of the car and it will get a reputation as a car that isn't easily sold and they will lower the wholesale rate unlike a fresh car to the market.  So you are just better off right from the start asking below the rate to move it quickly, as your first offer is quite often the best you get assuming someone isn't just lowballing for kicks.

[JWM]

46 minutes ago, NBTBRV8 said:

So you are just better off right from the start asking below the rate to move it quickly, as your first offer is quite often the best you get assuming someone isn't just lowballing for kicks.

It’s perplexing to watch people drop prices over twelve to eighteen months, seemingly managing to stay just 6 months behind the dropping market …😅 I see so many prices now what they would have sold quickly for if they listed at that 12+ months ago …

I wonder if the price info Carsales give people now is actually part of the problem … the data is so skewed from covid, when I see the “Around market price” I figure it’s about 20-30% too high, “Below Market Price” is 10-20% and no mention means the seller is still in a covid fever dream 🤣

[NBTBRV8]

24 minutes ago, JWM said:

It’s perplexing to watch people drop prices over twelve to eighteen months, seemingly managing to stay just 6 months behind the dropping market …😅 I see so many prices now what they would have sold quickly for if they listed at that 12+ months ago …

I wonder if the price info Carsales give people now is actually part of the problem … the data is so skewed from covid, when I see the “Around market price” I figure it’s about 20-30% too high, “Below Market Price” is 10-20% and no mention means the seller is still in a covid fever dream 🤣

No one likes the thought of not getting the best price and the market data always has a lag as it is looking backwards.  Probably the best thing to do is get just one wholesale price which is a current market data point and list it from there.  Don't hawk it around as the car will get a reputation in the wholesale trade and its value will drop relegating you to a private sale only without you are willing to take the hit.  I learnt this the hard way when I had my GT3.

[LeeM]

2 hours ago, mmm said:

I'd love to know what logic is being used to justify asking $100k for a car that was bid to $79k in two separate auctions. The market has clearly shown what the car is worth. 

 Optimism usually, yet what is it 'really' worth? 

 If a seller wants/needs $XXXX to justify selling it, or an outside party saying "When are you selling that bloody car?", they'll hang out for that cashed up buyer who wants/needs that particular model at nearly any cost.

 If someone wants my car badly enough, they'll have to pay what I'd take for it, as why would I sell it at a price just to keep someone else happy regardless of what 'the market' says? Here's the price, take it or leave it.

 Auctions are usually either a last resort to a seller when they've had no luck on car sites, or they're just taking a punt to see how it goes, yet Auctions aren't a very good indication of market values for anyone selling anything. 

 

[mmm]

2 hours ago, LeeM said:

 Optimism usually, yet what is it 'really' worth? 

 If a seller wants/needs $XXXX to justify selling it, or an outside party saying "When are you selling that bloody car?", they'll hang out for that cashed up buyer who wants/needs that particular model at nearly any cost.

 If someone wants my car badly enough, they'll have to pay what I'd take for it, as why would I sell it at a price just to keep someone else happy regardless of what 'the market' says? Here's the price, take it or leave it.

 Auctions are usually either a last resort to a seller when they've had no luck on car sites, or they're just taking a punt to see how it goes, yet Auctions aren't a very good indication of market values for anyone selling anything. 

 

Valid points, but I would actually disagree. Something is generally defined to be 'worth' what someone else is willing to pay. Hence the auction price demonstrates that. They are clearly actively trying to sell it, otherwise why put it in an auction? People are still holding out hope based on the prices seen over the recent years. 

5 hours ago, Summon said:

There are two components in the answer to that question - one being 'auction v private sale' and the other being market data.

My short opinion is that auction processes (if you are remote and cannot have the car ppi'd) carry their own risk.  You can sometimes grab a bargain but you are not readily able to perform the usual range of checks you would on a vehicle that can be privately inspected, driven and sent to a workshop for a ppi.  Hence an auction car will usually sell at a discount - unless of course you happen to have two or more people desperate for that particular car...in which case it can fetch over market.  This is purely my opinion - others may have their own.  If I was to purchase at auction, without access to the usual risk mitigation processes...I'd expect it to be factored into the purchase price (and you then usually have the buyer premium on top of the sale price...which also has to be used in calculations).

In terms of the current listing price of this vehicle - we use 3 - 12 months of data (depending on the volume for that model) to give our clients a listing range (based on where similar cars were listed when they sold).  Our clients then decide where to list.  Naturally a listing price is not the same as a selling price, yet there is some relationship between the two, albeit non-linear.  As such, the current listing price was chosen based on market data (rather than my personal thoughts and the car's auction history) over the past 3 - 6 months.  Naturally, most sellers list a car at the top of their listing range and move as required (unless they are operating under time constraints).

In this particular instance, I think the two answers correlate reasonably well together, based on private sale market data and previous auction results.  We currently have a 20 - 25% difference between the two...which is about right for this part of the process.

Data from 6 months ago is well and truly outdated. Also, you can quite easily get a PPI done on a car that is being auctioned, so the point about that being a difference is nullified. If we go on nothing more than asking prices, there are cars being sold by dealers (warranty etc) which are asking similar money to this private sale. Anyway, it is still for sale so hence is too expensive. 

[Summon]

2 hours ago, mmm said:

Valid points, but I would actually disagree. Something is generally defined to be 'worth' what someone else is willing to pay. Hence the auction price demonstrates that. They are clearly actively trying to sell it, otherwise why put it in an auction? People are still holding out hope based on the prices seen over the recent years. 

Data from 6 months ago is well and truly outdated. Also, you can quite easily get a PPI done on a car that is being auctioned, so the point about that being a difference is nullified. If we go on nothing more than asking prices, there are cars being sold by dealers (warranty etc) which are asking similar money to this private sale. Anyway, it is still for sale so hence is too expensive. 

Good luck with your search.

[JWM]

6 hours ago, LeeM said:

If someone wants my car badly enough, they'll have to pay what I'd take for it, as why would I sell it at a price just to keep someone else happy regardless of what 'the market' says? Here's the price, take it or leave it.

Good description of the ‘endowment effect’, which we all suffer from:

”The endowment effect describes a circumstance in which an individual places a higher value on an object that they already own than the value they would place on that same object if they did not own it.”

I know I wouldn’t pay what I sold my 996 for, but that’s what I wanted to sell it … and that works in ‘boom’ times but not now.

Maybe just me but seemed like the last few years auctions/private/dealer prices almost seemed to converge? I was always shocked what people paid at auction there for a while but maybe with lockdowns, etc and people going mad buying sight unseen for FOMO it made a kind of sense… Would be a ‘return to normal’ if auction prices were lower than other sales now, but seems hard to argue why that would be happening but private and dealer prices aren’t returning to normal too?

[kov]

20 hours ago, NBTBRV8 said:

As a seller most are willing on the Covid bubble, Porsche is especially bad for it across all the models.  I see the market has responded in the UK and US, so we'll just wait and see how long the lag goes for here before we follow suit.  IMHO now is not the time to be buying a Porsche.

Also financing a car at auction is problematic, so that knocks a few out of the race.  But generally I agree with the above.

A word of warning though on last listed prices, I have seen in the past cars get sold and the seller lifts the price on the listing right before they mark it as sold.

The other point is that generally wholesale offers are down, but sellers are use to the covid bubble so believe they can get way more than the wholesale market, where as before the delta would have been a bit closer.  So it is just a waiting game for sellers to come to the realisation that they aren't getting enquiries.

Three things sell a car in the main:

1. Condition

2. Location

3. Price

If you aren't getting enquiries adjust one of the three that is most out of sync with the market.

The last point as a private seller be very careful about dropping small price increments, dealers use this against you to talk down the value of the car and it will get a reputation as a car that isn't easily sold and they will lower the wholesale rate unlike a fresh car to the market.  So you are just better off right from the start asking below the rate to move it quickly, as your first offer is quite often the best you get assuming someone isn't just lowballing for kicks.

I watched that UK video however it was referring to  GT variants and prices falling.
How’s your crystal ball? Do you think it also applies to carrera and caymans models? 

Wait it out into mid 2024 and see what happens price wise ?

Now I’ve shifted my focus to a cayman, I wonder with them becoming all electric in 2025 will that impact sellers thoughts on price??

This popped up at lorbek yesterday, I may go take it for a test drive, Interested to see how a 2.7 drives compared  to my old manual 997.

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2015-porsche-cayman-981-manual-my15/OAG-AD-22772001?pageSource=details&id=OAG-AD-22772001

[NBTBRV8]

11 minutes ago, kov said:

I watched that UK video however it was referring to  GT variants and prices falling.
How’s your crystal ball? Do you think it also applies to carrera and caymans models? 

Wait it out into mid 2024 and see what happens price wise ?

Now I’ve shifted my focus to a cayman, I wonder with them becoming all electric in 2025 will that impact sellers thoughts on price??

This popped up at lorbek yesterday, I may go take it for a test drive, Interested to see how a 2.7 drives compared  to my old manual 997.

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2015-porsche-cayman-981-manual-my15/OAG-AD-22772001?pageSource=details&id=OAG-AD-22772001

Well I look at it this way, if the cashed up guys buying the top end aren't spending money, then there is a very good chance that those at the bottom end aren't or can't spend the money as it is harder and tougher to earn and get.  So if you buy now at inflated prices to the market trend I reckon you will pay for it when it is your time to sell.  But we could be wrong and another pandemic comes along and lifts it all again...

[WB997.2GTS]

So much speculation, will prices rise, will prices drop. Will I get windfall when I sell. Oh Gee! Some cars are overpriced. It comes down to one thing you either have the $’s or you don’t, if you do buy it then enjoy it, worry about the little things later. If you don’t have the $’s move on and buy a Golf.

little rant over

[kov]

20 minutes ago, NBTBRV8 said:

Well I look at it this way, if the cashed up guys buying the top end aren't spending money, then there is a very good chance that those at the bottom end aren't or can't spend the money as it is harder and tougher to earn and get.  So if you buy now at inflated prices to the market trend I reckon you will pay for it when it is your time to sell.  But we could be wrong and another pandemic comes along and lifts it all again...

I’ve always lost money on cars and never had the thought they are an investment.

After learning from wise men on here I’m a lot more educated on how the economy, interest rates etc impact niche car pricing.

I sold my E92 M3 just before the pandemic and luckily picked up my 997 March 2020. My itch to scratch was a 911 so it was a bonus it don’t tank price wise and what I lost on the M3 picked up on the 911 on the way out.

I never wanted to sell it during the pandemic, I mean there wasn’t much to do in VIC lockdowns apart from wash it and drive the allowed 5kms 😂 

[JWM]

16 minutes ago, WB997.2GTS said:

So much speculation, will prices rise, will prices drop. Will I get windfall when I sell. Oh Gee! Some cars are overpriced. It comes down to one thing you either have the $’s or you don’t, if you do buy it then enjoy it, worry about the little things later. If you don’t have the $’s move on and buy a Golf.

little rant over

Might as well shut the forum down then 😂

[kov]

42 minutes ago, WB997.2GTS said:

So much speculation, will prices rise, will prices drop. Will I get windfall when I sell. Oh Gee! Some cars are overpriced. It comes down to one thing you either have the $’s or you don’t, if you do buy it then enjoy it, worry about the little things later. If you don’t have the $’s move on and buy a Golf.

little rant over

As sick as it sounds I’m onto my 6th golf 😂 bought in March and the prices since then have fallen off a cliff, wouldn’t mind a t-roc next as a daily however not digging into my Porsche fund to make it happen !

[LeeM]

 @JWM  👍

 I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, yet I firmly believe those with the FOMO mentality during 'that' period was just boredom buying by people who had the cash laying around, or as a mate said to me, they took advantage of the 'money is cheap' thought process with a loan. Now they're scrambling to sell due to the rate increases and cost of of living when they realise they can't really afford it, and buyers are lowballing and winning.

 Let's not forget that this is a Porsche forum for Porsche enthusiasts who know what THEY would pay for a certain car, not what Joe or Jenny Bloggs who just want to buy their dream car to tootle down to the local Cafe for an almond latte and smashed Avo on toasted rye would pay. 

 If people have the disposable for what they really want to buy, they'll pay top dollar

 

[NBTBRV8]

2 minutes ago, LeeM said:

 @JWM  👍

 I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, yet I firmly believe those with the FOMO mentality during 'that' period was just boredom buying by people who had the cash laying around, or as a mate said to me, they took advantage of the 'money is cheap' thought process with a loan. Now they're scrambling to sell due to the rate increases and cost of of living when they realise they can't really afford it, and buyers are lowballing and winning.

 Let's not forget that this is a Porsche forum for Porsche enthusiasts who know what THEY would pay for a certain car, not what Joe or Jenny Bloggs who just want to buy their dream car to tootle down to the local Cafe for an almond latte and smashed Avo on toasted rye would pay. 

 If people have the disposable for what they really want to buy, they'll pay top dollar

 

I believe the lockdown, doom, gloom and fear led to people trying to buy happiness coupled with a constrained supply saw prices jump through the roof.

These things always go up faster than they come down, so I'll stay day dreaming on Carsales for a while longer yet...

[LeeM]

 Wants always far outweigh needs.

 I 'want' a new guitar, but I have 9 so I don't really 'need' another one, but... 😁

[Spets87]

9 hours ago, NBTBRV8 said:

I believe the lockdown, doom, gloom and fear led to people trying to buy happiness coupled with a constrained supply saw prices jump through the roof.

These things always go up faster than they come down, so I'll stay day dreaming on Carsales for a while longer yet...

The govt money printer going BRRRR was the main cause. Nothing like a bunch of businesses getting unncessesary funding.

[LeeM]

13 hours ago, Spets87 said:

The govt money printer going BRRRR was the main cause. Nothing like a bunch of businesses getting unncessesary funding.

 Like the $450,000 the mob I was contracting to received to allow their employees a week or two off, yet told them they had to take their holidays or unpaid, then all of a sudden the owners big river shack holiday home miraculously got fully renovated and bought a Cayman 👍🙄

Even blind Freddy could see it was a rort from the start

[tomo]

2 hours ago, LeeM said:

 Like the $450,000 the mob I was contracting to received to allow their employees a week or two off, yet told them they had to take their holidays or unpaid, then all of a sudden the owners big river shack holiday home miraculously got fully renovated and bought a Cayman 👍🙄

Even blind Freddy could see it was a rort from the start

Put the f#cker in jail.

[LeeM]

1 hour ago, tomo said:

Put the f#cker in jail.

 Karma got them in the end when that renovated 'shack' (worth $800k or more) went under water when the Murray flooded here, and it's knackered.  I cant be sure, yet the rumour is that they only took out insurance via 'a broker friend' a month or so before the expected flood, so as they knew it was likely they'd get flooded, the insurance company has red flagged their claim 😅