991 GT3 Market watch

[wilson59]

2 hours ago, hugh said:

I am in love with this! 

Surprising . That wing race track only . I would feel a little overwhelmed on the street 

[hugh]

Just now, wilson59 said:

Surprising . That wing race track only . I would feel a little overwhelmed on the street 

It would make up for me being undersized. 

[NevB]

14 hours ago, NBTBRV8 said:

Doesn't this look like a piece of sh!t, makes mine look even more of a bargain given the asking price.

Check out this 2015 Porsche 911 GT3 991 Auto MY15. https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2015-Porsche-911-GT3-991-Auto-MY15/OAG-AD-18476307

Are those gold rims stock or painted after delivery? 

[NBTBRV8]

1 hour ago, NevB said:

Are those gold rims stock or painted after delivery? 

Painted after delivery.

[JLD]

15 hours ago, NBTBRV8 said:

Doesn't this look like a piece of sh!t, makes mine look even more of a bargain given the asking price.

Check out this 2015 Porsche 911 GT3 991 Auto MY15. https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2015-Porsche-911-GT3-991-Auto-MY15/OAG-AD-18476307

It needs a bigger wing

[DJM]

12 hours ago, JLD said:

It needs a bigger wing

Perfect site vehicle - add some roof racks and that wing would be perfect to support long lengths of timber, plaster sheets, plywood etc for super quick deliveries.

[DJM]

On 17/02/2020 at 12:32, wilson59 said:

Been watching this market a while now and it seems the 991.1 is as popular as Coronavirus .

They seem to sit quite some time while the 991.2 still seem to be selling  OK .

 Is the bad run of motors going to be it's legacy ?

 

269k for MY14 991.1 vs 295k for a MY18 991.2.   wow........just 25k gap.   Tell him he’s dreamin’......

991.1s cannot be changing hands at anything like mid 2s surely.  Feels like a bomb clock ticking down ever so slowly but values will implode at some point.

2014 Porsche 911 GT3 991 Auto MY14

• 9,191 km
• https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2014-Porsche-911-GT3-991-Auto-MY14/OAG-AD-18433805

2017 Porsche 911 GT3 991 Auto MY18

• 21,786 km
• https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2017-Porsche-911-GT3-991-Auto-MY18/OAG-AD-18251493

[smit2100]

19 minutes ago, DJM said:

Perfect site vehicle - add some roof racks and that wing would be perfect to support long lengths of timber, plaster sheets, plywood etc for super quick deliveries.

Put magnetic business logos on it and Tax deductible as well??, even the wing ( part of the roof rack arrangement along with a additional custom support aluminium bracket that has commercial grade removable glass suction cups ( the same setup on audi r8's that support roof pods) that attach to the rear window so you can apply additional  ratchet straps. 

[smit2100]

49 minutes ago, DJM said:

269k for MY14 991.1 vs 295k for a MY18 991.2.   wow........just 25k gap.   Tell him he’s dreamin’......

991.1s cannot be changing hands at anything like mid 2s surely.  Feels like a bomb clock ticking down ever so slowly but values will implode at some point.

2014 Porsche 911 GT3 991 Auto MY14

• 9,191 km
• https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2014-Porsche-911-GT3-991-Auto-MY14/OAG-AD-18433805

2017 Porsche 911 GT3 991 Auto MY18

• 21,786 km
• https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2017-Porsche-911-GT3-991-Auto-MY18/OAG-AD-18251493

Ditched the idea of stepping into a 991.2 gt3 for 250k or just a waste of time and will go hard at that around 2022.  I reckon with a crystal ball long shot  call, csl will develop a coronavirus jab in the next 18 months with a Queesland uni and be first to market.  ( speculative buy to park some sideline cash into and the diagonal straight line up of the share price will most likely continue) and if Friedenberg isn't kicked out of parliament before the next election for dual citizenship, there could be an election promise to remove the luxury car sales tax to stimulate capital spend by resource companies to replace fleets of  4wd vehicles  and car sales in general.  This could  bring on a  one off step change shift down in second hand 991.2 rs gt3's. Your  circa  250k target price ( plus some free kick upside from  csl if you need to slighly up the anti) , is that stretch a stretch in the next two years if you can lock in a tradein from a buyer that  just offloaded for a  new 992.1/2 gt3 rs, ( perhaps a 20% ( not 33%)  drop  from current pricing even allowing for the p tax gouge ) may not be a bad call.

 

 

[LeeM]

On 21/02/2020 at 22:56, hugh said:

It would make up for me being undersized. 

 The way you drive? Pfft...😉

8 hours ago, DJM said:

Perfect site vehicle - add some roof racks and that wing would be perfect to support long lengths of timber, plaster sheets, plywood etc for super quick deliveries.

Hmmm...Wonder what I'd get as a trade in for the '06 Hiace? 🤔

[DJM]

@smit2100 if you could continue to consult your crystal ball and confirm exactly when the inflection point of .2 manual GT3 value curve is reached, that would be appreciated 🤑

Meanwhile to occupy the time, PFAers, what’s the buy price for a .1 soon to be out of warranty.   Not worth $250k but obviously worth more than $0.  I struggle with how you quantify the risk and discount the buy price. No manuals of course.  But I’d have one as a hard driven track pig and SMT canyon carver.  I’d “Cup it” like the white Theodossi car above.  

But I wouldn’t pay 200k let alone 269k

would I pay 150k.......hmm a lot of car for that but that becomes 250k invested if the engine fails.  And I could nearly have a .2 for that.  Roll the dice?

would I pay 100k......Surely yes.  It seems a bargain but then again it owes you 200k after an engine and at that point it’s value is no higher than your buy in as the engine, while improved, still shares the inherent design issues

its a tough one.  I suspect for many it’s a “not interested” at any price simply because no one wants to “enjoy” a drive with the constant threat of engine failure.  So who will buy these cars going forward, are they cashed up numpties who perhaps do not realise or value the risk?  Or educated buyers who don’t believe the hype?  

and as a seller, at what level do you keep it vs cut and run?

havent seen evidence yet of a significant price correction but have we heard of any off market price crunch deals trading on the risk and fear of what’s to come?

by the way I’m not likely to be a .1 buyer so I’m not trying to talk values down for my benefit.  Just thought I’d slot that in before current owners howl me down.....

To be fair, it’s worth pointing out that not every .1 will necessarily need an engine.  And every other car won’t necessarily be trouble free.  My old 996 GT2 did an engine which was not expected or common, just bad luck.  

Discuss.

[NBTBRV8]

2 hours ago, DJM said:

@smit2100 if you could continue to consult your crystal ball and confirm exactly when the inflection point of .2 manual GT3 value curve is reached, that would be appreciated 🤑

Meanwhile to occupy the time, PFAers, what’s the buy price for a .1 soon to be out of warranty.   Not worth $250k but obviously worth more than $0.  I struggle with how you quantify the risk and discount the buy price. No manuals of course.  But I’d have one as a hard driven track pig and SMT canyon carver.  I’d “Cup it” like the white Theodossi car above.  

But I wouldn’t pay 200k let alone 269k

would I pay 150k.......hmm a lot of car for that but that becomes 250k invested if the engine fails.  And I could nearly have a .2 for that.  Roll the dice?

would I pay 100k......Surely yes.  It seems a bargain but then again it owes you 200k after an engine and at that point it’s value is no higher than your buy in as the engine, while improved, still shares the inherent design issues

its a tough one.  I suspect for many it’s a “not interested” at any price simply because no one wants to “enjoy” a drive with the constant threat of engine failure.  So who will buy these cars going forward, are they cashed up numpties who perhaps do not realise or value the risk?  Or educated buyers who don’t believe the hype?  

and as a seller, at what level do you keep it vs cut and run?

havent seen evidence yet of a significant price correction but have we heard of any off market price crunch deals trading on the risk and fear of what’s to come?

by the way I’m not likely to be a .1 buyer so I’m not trying to talk values down for my benefit.  Just thought I’d slot that in before current owners howl me down.....

To be fair, it’s worth pointing out that not every .1 will necessarily need an engine.  And every other car won’t necessarily be trouble free.  My old 996 GT2 did an engine which was not expected or common, just bad luck.  

Discuss.

I guess the answer is how much extra would you pay for near identical cars, one with and one without warranty.  It would appear that cars with a PCA warranty are getting fewer and it is going to be near impossible to get the warranty put back on.

[DJM]

But come 2024 no more engine warranty irrespective?

[NBTBRV8]

6 minutes ago, DJM said:

But come 2024 no more engine warranty irrespective?

You are incorrect.  The 10 year warranty starts from when the car was first registered.  The approved used car warranty goes through to 15 years from when the car was first registered and you might be able to get another 12-18 months on that depending upon when you do the renewal.

[DJM]

I’m referring specifically to the 991.1 Porsche engine warranty - I thought it was a fixed 10 year warranty.  Are  you saying the Porsche overall car warranty if maintained will cover an owner if the engine shits itself post the 10 year engine warranty but within the overall warranty.  If so why did they introduce an engine specific warranty? 

[NBTBRV8]

Just now, DJM said:

I’m referring specifically to the 991.1 Porsche engine warranty - I thought it was a fixed 10 year warranty.  Are  you saying the Porsche overall car warranty if maintained will cover an owner if the engine shits itself post the 10 year engine warranty but within the overall warranty.  If so why did they introduce an engine specific warranty? 

The 991.1 engine warranty is 10 years from the date of first registration.

The Porsche Approved warranty can be renewed up until the car is in its 15th year from first registration and covers the engine.  This is the same for any Porsche.

The 10 year 991.1 GT3 specific warranty for the engine was separate as not every car will have the Porsche warranty or will be eligible as time marches on.

 

It is important that these facts are made clear to stop internet misthruths.

[DJM]

So What I think you are saying is if a 2014 reg GT3 engine goes bang in 2029, replacement is covered by Porsche even though the engine warranty expired in 2024, provided that the Porsche approved warranty remains in force?

[NBTBRV8]

1 minute ago, DJM said:

So What I think you are saying is if a 2014 reg GT3 engine goes bang in 2029, replacement is covered by Porsche even though the engine warranty expired in 2024, provided that the Porsche approved warranty remains in force?

Yes so long as the Porsche Approved Warranty is kept up to the car.  But It is up to 14 years, I stated 15 years above.  So you can only renew the warranty up until the car is 14 years 364 days from first registration( and sub 200,000kms).

https://www.porschebrighton.com.au/Porsche-Approved-Warranty

[DJM]

Righto so as 2024/5 looms, engine warranties expire and so those with PCA warranty maintained would certainly be a better ownership prospect and so if thin on the ground I could see that affecting value significantly.  

im also curious whether the problem is sitting there waiting for inevitable failure or if 10 or 15 years in without trouble perhaps you got a “good one” and failure is less likely?  I suppose as a design flaw rather than a build quality issue you could not be too confident

[NBTBRV8]

1 minute ago, DJM said:

Righto so as 2024/5 looms, engine warranties expire and so those with PCA warranty maintained would certainly be a better ownership prospect and so if thin on the ground I could see that affecting value significantly.  

im also curious whether the problem is sitting there waiting for inevitable failure or if 10 or 15 years in without trouble perhaps you got a “good one” and failure is less likely?  I suppose as a design flaw rather than a build quality issue you could not be too confident

Yes, I agree with your first point.

On the second who knows.  All we do know is that the G series motor is the best available for the 991.1 and this motor is the same as fitted to the .1 RS.  I would be nervous if I had an F series motor without the Porsche extended (15 year) used car warranty.  That being said everybody is quoting big dollars to get a replacement engine, I am sure the used car market won't do this and they will buy cams and followers as spare parts giving the top end a freshen up rather that buying a long motor.  Porsche replace the motor because it is the safest thing for them to do with a dealer network and people love to stoke up the fear of the cost of this change over. 

[Stephen Tinker]

We are assuming that Porsche will want to warrant the car for the period after the 10 year engine warranty runs out.

Me being a cynical sod, perhaps Porsche will find "excuses" not to give you a further guarantee after the mandatory 10 years are up - too many overrevs, non approved battery or tyres, service dates not quite within spec etc etc. Does that mean the car would have had to have been serviced souly by OPC (not indie's) for the full 14 yrs, 364 days to qualify - yes?

Afterall, if the motor goes pop in year 11,12, 13 or 14 it will cost Porsche an awful lot of money..... 

[DJM]

True or not scepticism affects values and prevents sales.  Unsurprisingly those that own them have an optimistic view while those in the market and others without a vested interest remain sceptical.  I reckon it pays to be sceptical for such a significant investment, particularly when .2s are closing the gap.

[smit2100]

3 hours ago, NBTBRV8 said:

Yes, I agree with your first point.

On the second who knows.  All we do know is that the G series motor is the best available for the 991.1 and this motor is the same as fitted to the .1 RS.  I would be nervous if I had an F series motor without the Porsche extended (15 year) used car warranty.  That being said everybody is quoting big dollars to get a replacement engine, I am sure the used car market won't do this and they will buy cams and followers as spare parts giving the top end a freshen up rather that buying a long motor.  Porsche replace the motor because it is the safest thing for them to do with a dealer network and people love to stoke up the fear of the cost of this change over. 

So back to the circa 200k question, where is the price going with reference to some above posts,   I can draw a few parallels to my current daily which is a high revving m3 e90.  Lots of internet talk about rod bearings wearing and engines going bang.  Lots of talk about preventative maintenance of replacing rod bearings for  piece of mind.  For me it was a  risk analysis question against cost.  The google failures rates are viewed at about 1% of total production vs probably 10% on  m3 forum posters and 85% electing to do preventative rod bearing change outs.  Like Warren Buffet, be greedy when others are fearful, low risk of going bang on my watch as I saw it and  great bang for buckunder 50k . So tens years on and say 150k new base  and 50k bottom the depreciation curve for something that's not a basket case. 66% depreciation hit.

So for a 991.1 gt3 in terms of pricing, i reckon values are driven by the cars history and production year.  Top of the market will be  extended warranty and religious p car dealer servicing with later  build / rego dates and fully optioned out with lots of extra boxes ticked.  I will dart board about 235k  at  bottom of the curve in the next 18 months and hold.   Risk averse buyers who just won't one  may have a bit of anxiety not easily sleeping each night thinking subconsciously about the engine going bang one day won't self insure and seek one of these cars and pay the premium.

At the bottom end of the market will be examples that don't see much cars and coffeee action compared to a track and probably at a higher risk  of going bang based on harder usage and more engine time.   Couple that with no p dealer stamps after 3 years and no extended warranty and a closer to 2014 build date and I reckon those cars are at the bottom end.  Can't see them dropping below 175k   ( my reasoning is if I reckon 140k is about where the the odd  997.1 can swept up, I also reckon, you would consider stumping up about 35 k to step into one on incremental bang for buck value proposition.    That lower end number will be for those that will drive it hard, indi servicing and self insure.  ( when they hit the pillow, the thought of the engine going bang won't even be a subconscious thought).  They will just control what they control ( throttle and steering wheel)  and self insure ( not interested in paying premiums for dealer servicing and extended warranties or option boxes ) with a view that if  they got on the wrong end of the failure rate probabilities its circa  20k for cams and followers at an indi.  ( not a engine replacement) Obviously there needs to be a seller that wants some quick cash and understands they ain't got a polisher and its been owned and used as intented and probably a lot more  than nearly everything else available.

So I'd consider that  35k price delta over a 997.1 is bang for buck assuming that if  engine goes bang, it about a 20-25k outlay to get it back on the street/ track. ( short cut available assumed in terms of cams and followers at an indi vs full engine replacement).

In terms of some maths, back to the hit on m3's, much more stock on offer and they dont hold any resale value compared to a p car, so I reckon the 66% depreciation curve is not applicable and with a  few years off 10 years and  a 2 year forward horizon reckon a circa 40% deduct off base model 2014 built gt3 price of 300k ,  is a  the back of a postage stamp crack of rock bottom end pricing. So your at 180k. 

So then I check Glasses guide and bottom end tradein range is showing 178k for a my15 991.1 gt3. with 60k to 110k. A unicorn perhaps or is this an insight to where prices are trending.  Eg in two years bottom end trade in prices are available to some  punters ( DJM) that may be able to sniff out the rare I'll give it to you at slightly above the tradein price I got offered for a quick sale from the  seller who wants to update on a newer model.

 

[DJM]

Haha the smit of old is back, I was wondering where those long rambling analysis posts had gone 😂.

I suspect the price will be dictated more by what happens above (991.2, 992, 992.2 how many of those they sell etc) than below (997).  You could argue 997 is a much better investment than 991 and so what’s to stop 991 falling below 997.  Look at 997 Carreras, much cheaper than an equivalent quality G body car.  Time will tell.

[StevepGT3]

1 hour ago, smit2100 said:

So back to the circa 200k question, where is the price going with reference to some above posts,   I can draw a few parallels to my current daily which is a high revving m3 e90.  Lots of internet talk about rod bearings wearing and engines going bang.  Lots of talk about preventative maintenance of replacing rod bearings for  piece of mind.  For me it was a  risk analysis question against cost.  The google failures rates are viewed at about 1% of total production vs probably 10% on  m3 forum posters and 85% electing to do preventative rod bearing change outs.  Like Warren Buffet, be greedy when others are fearful, low risk of going bang on my watch as I saw it and  great bang for buckunder 50k . So tens years on and say 150k new base  and 50k bottom the depreciation curve for something that's not a basket case. 66% depreciation hit.

So for a 991.1 gt3 in terms of pricing, i reckon values are driven by the cars history and production year.  Top of the market will be  extended warranty and religious p car dealer servicing with later  build / rego dates and fully optioned out with lots of extra boxes ticked.  I will dart board about 235k  at  bottom of the curve in the next 18 months and hold.   Risk averse buyers who just won't one  may have a bit of anxiety not easily sleeping each night thinking subconsciously about the engine going bang one day won't self insure and seek one of these cars and pay the premium.

At the bottom end of the market will be examples that don't see much cars and coffeee action compared to a track and probably at a higher risk  of going bang based on harder usage and more engine time.   Couple that with no p dealer stamps after 3 years and no extended warranty and a closer to 2014 build date and I reckon those cars are at the bottom end.  Can't see them dropping below 175k   ( my reasoning is if I reckon 140k is about where the the odd  997.1 can swept up, I also reckon, you would consider stumping up about 35 k to step into one on incremental bang for buck value proposition.    That lower end number will be for those that will drive it hard, indi servicing and self insure.  ( when they hit the pillow, the thought of the engine going bang won't even be a subconscious thought).  They will just control what they control ( throttle and steering wheel)  and self insure ( not interested in paying premiums for dealer servicing and extended warranties or option boxes ) with a view that if  they got on the wrong end of the failure rate probabilities its circa  20k for cams and followers at an indi.  ( not a engine replacement) Obviously there needs to be a seller that wants some quick cash and understands they ain't got a polisher and its been owned and used as intented and probably a lot more  than nearly everything else available.

So I'd consider that  35k price delta over a 997.1 is bang for buck assuming that if  engine goes bang, it about a 20-25k outlay to get it back on the street/ track. ( short cut available assumed in terms of cams and followers at an indi vs full engine replacement).

In terms of some maths, back to the hit on m3's, much more stock on offer and they dont hold any resale value compared to a p car, so I reckon the 66% depreciation curve is not applicable and with a  few years off 10 years and  a 2 year forward horizon reckon a circa 40% deduct off base model 2014 built gt3 price of 300k ,  is a  the back of a postage stamp crack of rock bottom end pricing. So your at 180k. 

So then I check Glasses guide and bottom end tradein range is showing 178k for a my15 991.1 gt3. with 60k to 110k. A unicorn perhaps or is this an insight to where prices are trending.  Eg in two years bottom end trade in prices are available to some  punters ( DJM) that may be able to sniff out the rare I'll give it to you at slightly above the tradein price I got offered for a quick sale from the  seller who wants to update on a newer model.

 

You have to catch it before it goes bang Not wait until it does as shit goes right through the motor requiring a full rebuild, a lot like IMS