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COVID-19 and the Porsche marketplace

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What do you think, is COVID already having an impact on the Porsche market? 

I saw in the AFR today that real estate agents are complaining about high end residential property deals getting pulled or put on hold.  And I went jewellery shopping on the weekend for my wife's birthday (lucky me)— one of the shops in Sydney told me that they are down more than 50% on normal trade.  No doubt the absence of Chinese tourists is a big factor for them, but I suspect locals are thinking twice about luxury discretionary purchases.

Will be interesting to see how CTS, Duttons, etc, fair over the next few months.

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9 minutes ago, npvpositive said:

 

I saw in the AFR today that real estate agents are complaining about high end residential property deals getting pulled or put on hold

 No guesses who are buying/not buying them then! 🙄

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Yep, locals putting all of their money into toilet paper. If Duttons or a Porsche dealer throw in a couple of packs of dunny rolls I'll buy what ever car they come with! 😂

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I don’t get the whole situation.  Handful of cases here and people start hoarding toilet paper and deferring life decisions.  Wow.

hopefully 991.2 GT3s halve in value in coming weeks 😂

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11 hours ago, npvpositive said:

What do you think, is COVID already having an impact on the Porsche market? 

I saw in the AFR today that real estate agents are complaining about high end residential property deals getting pulled or put on hold.  And I went jewellery shopping on the weekend for my wife's birthday (lucky me)— one of the shops in Sydney told me that they are down more than 50% on normal trade.  No doubt the absence of Chinese tourists is a big factor for them, but I suspect locals are thinking twice about luxury discretionary purchases.

Will be interesting to see how CTS, Duttons, etc, fair over the next few months.

I don’t think it will make any difference to the Duttons etc of the world. They’re already in a world of pain trying to move high priced stuff.  Have a look at Duttons current stock modern car mix.  Loads more “run of the mill” stuff there that they’d normally put through other channels or wholesalers.  

High end real estate hasn’t been moving because people have not been selling.   There’s been a lack of stock for around 6-12 months and they were already hurting.  I’m not sure anyone in this low interest environment who is looking at borrowing for high end is going to be stopped by COVID alone.  Also, with the ASX Casino taking it up the fundamental I’m thinking there will be a longer term move back into property supported by the low rates. 

In the end, buying decisions - investment or personal - are all about confidence and right now, people will be being cautious but I’m not convinced that downward pressure on pricing will be significant.  Sellers who need to sell will always drop their asking but otherwise, people will hang on for the inevitable stabilization once people get comfortable again.

Confidence has been low for a while now and this crazy scenario (which is serious but perhaps a little amplified by understandable fear and a media looking for more “oh f#ck” angles on the story) has, for now, tipped a lot of people over hence the unusual reactions.  

No one should be criticized for being scared and trying to take steps that make them feel like they’re at least in control of something. It’s fair enough especially when there is lack of trust in the government response at a federal level with people having witnessed the shameful debacle of how the Cth government behaved in the bushfire crisis.  We witnessed the vacuous and media moment driven behavior of our “leaders” who, once they’d explained to the kids that daddy had to go home a day early from the beach holiday because now his whole backyard was on fire, thought it was a good idea to run a blatant political advert to try and make people feel better.

 Then Scotty from Marketing got his @rse handed to him when he finally exited The Bubble by treating people as props for yet another media moment.  Will anyone ever forget the image of him trying to shake hands with exhausted and crushed people and when they wouldn’t/couldn’t, he just moved on to the next poor person looking for a better shot ... I won’t.  How disrespectful.  

Whats that got to do with Porsche market and COVID 19?  Not a lot other than confidence is the key and leaders have a job to do there and the scorecard on that front is a D - with a note from the teacher-  “could try harder and Scotty should talk less in class with Joshy and spend more time listening and doing his homework”.

We also have a job to do.  Support each other.  In the end, that will I think be the most effective way to bring back confidence and a feeling of “normality”.  

End of rant.  Needed to vent.  Thanks for listening.  

 

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I want a gt2 rs ,,,,,maybe I can pay in toilet rolls ,,,it seems to be the most valuable and sort after commodity at the moment :Chuckle2:

Seriously the world has gone mad , over blown media hype and the masses panic ,, but do agree with Skidmarks post about Governments useless response and total disregard for the public feeling this way ,,,,i am certain those wankers in power have looked them selves up in some cold war era fall out shelter  in planet Canberra once again with total disregard for the working public   :wacko: All levels of Government are disorganized crime ,there is a very clear division between them and us and clearly they dont give a stuff.In times of Crisis they always fail 

Positive of this Shit paper mess is sorbent and Kleenex shares are up ,all time high :Jumping:

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That is hilarious , I knew someone was go in to do it  :Chuckle2:

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i've heard of a few house holds where the sole income is from shares etc- which has been a bit chaotic, so income has become severely restricted. i guess might see some assets up for sale from those affected?

on the flip side, with supply  chains frozen will there be opportunities for local manufacturing to slowly creep back up?

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1 hour ago, clutch-monkey said:

i've heard of a few house holds where the sole income is from shares etc- which has been a bit chaotic, so income has become severely restricted. i guess might see some assets up for sale from those affected?

on the flip side, with supply  chains frozen will there be opportunities for local manufacturing to slowly creep back up?

I bloody hope that this this is a wake up call to at least secure some sort of core self sufficiency.  I’m not a nationalist by any means but there is something to be said for having capacity on shore.  
 

I but dream ....

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80% of our toilet paper is manufactured here. Apparently it’s all we need to survive a pandemic so we should be good.

5 hours ago, clutch-monkey said:

i've heard of a few house holds where the sole income is from shares etc- which has been a bit chaotic, so income has become severely restricted. i guess might see some assets up for sale from those affected?

on the flip side, with supply  chains frozen will there be opportunities for local manufacturing to slowly creep back up?

There will be assets sold for sure. Leveraged business owners of discretionary goods who suddenly find themselves with no income and big wage bills.

Volatility always catches people out. It’ll be no different than the GFC, plenty of cars fire sold back then.

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1 hour ago, sleazius said:

80% of our toilet paper is manufactured here. Apparently it’s all we need to survive a pandemic so we should be good.

There will be assets sold for sure. Leveraged business owners of discretionary goods who suddenly find themselves with no income and big wage bills.

 All toilet roll manufacturers are at 24/7 production now, so I bet they're rubbing their collective hands at the moment.

 A sub contractor mate was earning very well installing plantation shutters in homes until last week. The company has now told him they can't fulfill any orders from this week ahead, so he's basically out of a job for the time being, and losing $8000 a month. I've been there before for a few months, and it's not nice at all. I can name 4-5 companies that now have China supply all of their home products (blinds, kitchens etc) and they're already in the shit. One company in particular has already laid off 4 of 8 employees and some sales reps, as they've lost a lot of orders they can't fulfill and had to hand back deposits.

 The bloke I buy wardrobes from was telling me before this coronavirus thing that he was probably going to have to lose a few long term employees (which he really doesn't want to do), as he can't compete with those who buy in from China, yet now he is being inundated with orders to supply those other companies with materials. 

 I know why companies are forced to buy their products from China now (at the cost of local jobs which sucks), yet it had to bite them on the arse eventually. Personally, I don't agree with companies buying from China when they can buy locally, yet when developers like my neighbour saved $8k per house on kitchen and robes etc ($32k all up), you can see why they do it. 

 I'm just glad I'm in my new job of building maintenance and renovations, and not solely doing robes and kitchens, as the local manufacturing industry is gradually dying due to the imports, and contractors are getting shafted more and more. This virus thing (if it continues) will have a dire effect on the building industry

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12 hours ago, LeeM said:

 All toilet roll manufacturers are at 24/7 production now, so I bet they're rubbing their collective hands at the moment.

 A sub contractor mate was earning very well installing plantation shutters in homes until last week. The company has now told him they can't fulfill any orders from this week ahead, so he's basically out of a job for the time being, and losing $8000 a month. I've been there before for a few months, and it's not nice at all. I can name 4-5 companies that now have China supply all of their home products (blinds, kitchens etc) and they're already in the shit. One company in particular has already laid off 4 of 8 employees and some sales reps, as they've lost a lot of orders they can't fulfill and had to hand back deposits.

 The bloke I buy wardrobes from was telling me before this coronavirus thing that he was probably going to have to lose a few long term employees (which he really doesn't want to do), as he can't compete with those who buy in from China, yet now he is being inundated with orders to supply those other companies with materials. 

 I know why companies are forced to buy their products from China now (at the cost of local jobs which sucks), yet it had to bite them on the arse eventually. Personally, I don't agree with companies buying from China when they can buy locally, yet when developers like my neighbour saved $8k per house on kitchen and robes etc ($32k all up), you can see why they do it. 

 I'm just glad I'm in my new job of building maintenance and renovations, and not solely doing robes and kitchens, as the local manufacturing industry is gradually dying due to the imports, and contractors are getting shafted more and more. This virus thing (if it continues) will have a dire effect on the building industry

Your mate will get back . When the hysteria has calmed down life will get back to normal.

I already know people getting back on track with Chinese companies 

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Skidmarks has his finger on the pulse - and it is weak. The governments of the world are just lowering interest rates with fingers crossed that it will stimulate spending but they don't have funds of their own to spend on providing jobs. They just keep printing money (toilet rolls) which gets flushed down the toilet. People at these times are trying to use any means they can including low interest rates to keep their heads above any debt levels until the floods subside. 

In the mean time if you can, buy a cheaper Porsche and enjoy driving it around while the oil price is down. Keep an eye on the Porsche you want at the higher end of the range and wait for the right time to pounce ! Don't hope the Government will drop the Luxury car Tax, they can't afford to.

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a lot of companies have rushed in work from home policies (which may have security issues due to the rush?).

Once the kinks are ironed out though- i wonder if they would bother to revert. if it's proving possible to work a lot from home through this period without drops in productivity would they just keep it that way!

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49 minutes ago, 9fan said:

Skidmarks has his finger on the pulse - and it is weak. The governments of the world are just lowering interest rates with fingers crossed that it will stimulate spending but they don't have funds of their own to spend on providing jobs. They just keep printing money (toilet rolls) which gets flushed down the toilet. People at these times are trying to use any means they can including low interest rates to keep their heads above any debt levels until the floods subside. 

In the mean time if you can, buy a cheaper Porsche and enjoy driving it around while the oil price is down. Keep an eye on the Porsche you want at the higher end of the range and wait for the right time to pounce !

 Governments of the world are lowering interest rates at the behest of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the plan to drive interest rates into the negative, aiming for -4%.  This means  people will be paying the banks to keep their savings and the banks will rake in billions of dollars.  There are countries in Europe in negative territory already.  They want a cashless society whereby they can track every cent you get.  Start dealing in cash and keep it in your mattress ?  No, they will introduce a scheme whereby notes ending in a number (0 to 9) will have an expiry date and will no longer be legal tender after that date and so you will need to exchange your notes, for a fee of course.
There is legislation before Parliament now to restrict cash transactions to a maximum of $10,000, under the pretext of reducing Black Market transactions.  No mention of multiple cash transactions under $10,000 though.  It has already passed the lower house, the scary bit is, they haven’t read it themselves.  What else haven’t they read before voting?

As for developing our own manufacturing again, read the Lima Agreement.

Yeah, I know, it’s political and it’s a vent...delete if you wish.

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8 hours ago, LeeM said:

 

 A sub contractor mate was earning very well installing plantation shutters in homes until last week. The company has now told him they can't fulfill any orders from this week ahead, so he's basically out of a job for the time being, and losing $8000 a month. I've been there before for a few months, and it's not nice at all. I can name 4-5 companies that now have China supply all of their home products (blinds, kitchens etc) and they're already in the shit. One company in particular has already laid off 4 of 8 employees and some sales reps, as they've lost a lot of orders they can't fulfill and had to hand back deposits.

 The bloke I buy wardrobes from was telling me before this coronavirus thing that he was probably going to have to lose a few long term employees (which he really doesn't want to do), as he can't compete with those who buy in from China, yet now he is being inundated with orders to supply those other companies with materials. 

 I know why companies are forced to buy their products from China now (at the cost of local jobs which sucks), yet it had to bite them on the arse eventually. Personally, I don't agree with companies buying from China when they can buy locally, yet when developers like my neighbour saved $8k per house on kitchen and robes etc ($32k all up), you can see why they do it. 

 

We are in the wholesale window furnishings industry and although we don't import shutters I have a lot of mates that do and they are struggling. Shutter factories have begun producing and exporting again but stock is still a number of weeks away. Deliveries will get back to normal shortly. 

Fortunately we manufacture blinds and other products locally, however the softening of the retail market is having an effect on our distributors and subsequently our business. The problem is not the imports. The real issue lies with the current softening of the retail landscape affected by the economy and consumers being distracted by the current global issue. 

Yes, Australian manufactured goods are more expensive but the end product is far superior. The sooner the consumer gets that the better. China had wreaked havoc on local jobs and businesses and our reliance on imports has now bitten this country. 

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People have been bringing up the dangers of long global supply chains for a while.  I think this little episode will at least make some people think about it.   The petrol supply chain for aus has always been a big worry.

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Production in China is one thing, I think you'll find that sentiment has gone out the window. Retail was already struggling, this media hyped event is going to push more business over the falls and it is totally unnecessary (except for toilet paper suppliers for some reason).

My fingers are crossed that a rabbit gets pulled out of the hat and a vaccine gets produced in the next few months, lest the media have something to scare the living shit out of the populace with for the next 12 months.

In the mean time, cash is king. After Lehman Brothers fell over it was about 6-8 weeks before the cheap GT3s and GT3RS started showing up (and Ferraris and Lambos but probably the wrong site for that). If sentiment has bolted, we'll see the same. Most SMEs only have between 6 and 12 weeks of payroll laying around, after that is when the fun starts.

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What are some ways people are hedging their bets on this? Cash is king, buying cheaper assets would be better in the longterm though. 

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