996-7 Turbo Market Watch

[luzzo]

12 minutes ago, on_booost said:

I did miss the silver one - seems cheap - even for a silver one ...:)

It was very well priced, and what made it even better value, is that it was listed by a Porsche Dealer. 

 

[911virgin]

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/Porsche 911 2008/OAG-AD-21368925/?utm_campaign=sold-alert&utm_source=notification-centre&utm_medium=browser-push-notification&csn_atid=d853f826-0ed4-474a-9aec-0a1b9cb5bfff

 

is this the silver one being discussed?

 

53000kms

ask  $261K

delisted from CS after 2 days!!

[on_booost]

Yeah - looks like it - didn't get the chance to delve into to the spec too much tho....

[mc968cs]

2 hours ago, 911virgin said:

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/Porsche 911 2008/OAG-AD-21368925/?utm_campaign=sold-alert&utm_source=notification-centre&utm_medium=browser-push-notification&csn_atid=d853f826-0ed4-474a-9aec-0a1b9cb5bfff

 

is this the silver one being discussed?

 

53000kms

ask  $261K

delisted from CS after 2 days!!

And that $261k was drive away, not pre Vic tax or duty…

[911virgin]

6 hours ago, mc968cs said:

And that $261k was drive away, not pre Vic tax or duty…

PCM and sometimes PCD tend to price their used cars realistically....or with an intent to actually sell them unlike most of the seller on CS

[Joz]

Seems the are about 4x the amount of 996tts on the market now than during most of the year I was looking through Covid.

[sleazius]

There are more than double the amount of 911s listed compared to covid times.

[Joz]

Yes I’ve noticed.

Also when I did buy mine it seemed like the most expensive car I had seen advertised. But looking at much of the asking prices today makes it seem like a bargain.

[911virgin]

11 hours ago, sleazius said:

There are more than double the amount of 911s listed compared to covid times.

What do you think is the reason for this?

[smit2100]

On 25/12/2022 at 06:45, 911virgin said:

What do you think is the reason for this?

Perhaps the thematic is some Ministers of finance have been used to disposable income levels that have been somewhat eroded in recent times. That has resulted in some fiscal  tightening at levels their not acustomed to.  Then each day they see this asset which burns more disposable income when infrequently used that fails their personal  cost to me benefit analysis.  They are seeing red   and want to see dispoable income back up to acceptable levels with a  square up in the books  so their back in the black.    That drives a non consensus  authoritarian decision for a forced sales  listing after hearing for the  best part of 18 months that its an asset and been making money sitting  idle not being used and just needs to be  regularly polished. There may be some further stormy waters and disappointment installed  when Minsters are laser focused on reviewing the cash amount that hits the bank account.  Quite a material discount  is likely to realised compared  what it was previously valued at by an insider in an open forum with vested interests.

[CapnHyaku]

Here's the numbers to back it up, number of new listings per day for 911 Coupe Manual from carsales alerts, moving 10 day average:

[911virgin]

2 hours ago, smit2100 said:

Perhaps the thematic is some Ministers of finance have been used to disposable income levels that have been somewhat eroded in recent times. That has resulted in some fiscal  tightening at levels their not acustomed to.  Then each day they see this asset which burns more disposable income when infrequently used that fails their personal  cost to me benefit analysis.  They are seeing red   and want to see dispoable income back up to acceptable levels with a  square up in the books  so their back in the black.    That drives a non consensus  authoritarian decision for a forced sales  listing after hearing for the  best part of 18 months that its an asset and been making money sitting  idle not being used and just needs to be  regularly polished. There may be some further stormy waters and disappoint install when Minsters are laser focused on reviewing the cash amount that hits the bank account.  Quite a material discount  is likely to realised compared  what it was previously valued at by an insider in an open forum with vested interests.

So " silly offers" by low balling, tyre kicking prospective test pilots, dreamers and time wasters may actually have to be considered by these CS sellers still asking ask the moon prices?

[mc968cs]

6 hours ago, 911virgin said:

What do you think is the reason for this?

I reckon cars are back to getting dearer to own than it has been for a fair while. It’s impacting volumes and prices are on way down slowly  

Eg with interest rates kicking up , for every $$250k now held in cash one now earns near $12k per year totally risk free in bank. Compared to say owning a $250k car that costs say $12k across ins, rego, tyres, service, something ageing out etc, the cost spread is now roughly $24k per year per car.  If you finance that car then I’m guesssing the spread is way more… like $40k per year?  Hold car for three years and thats $120k delta. Suddenly they cost way more than they did 1-2 years ago. thats all just one thought on it all.  
Having offloaded three extra toys it seems about right to me though. 

[smit2100]

15 hours ago, mc968cs said:

I reckon cars are back to getting dearer to own than it has been for a fair while. It’s impacting volumes and prices are on way down slowly  

Eg with interest rates kicking up , for every $$250k now held in cash one now earns near $12k per year totally risk free in bank. Compared to say owning a $250k car that costs say $12k across ins, rego, tyres, service, something ageing out etc, the cost spread is now roughly $24k per year per car.  If you finance that car then I’m guesssing the spread is way more… like $40k per year?  Hold car for three years and thats $120k delta. Suddenly they cost way more than they did 1-2 years ago. thats all just one thought on it all.  
Having offloaded three extra toys it seems about right to me though. 

I was fully aligned with your thinking, except I reckon your  returns on 250k are over inflated.   Or you just super aggressive on your tax minimisation structure whereby you pay zero tax  on your bank interest unlike some of us.  My view is most pay  expenses  on toys  using post tax dollars so you are mixing lemons with pears.  Plus reckon why would you put money in a term deposit.  An argument from many is just buy the bank shares for the dividend and with the  the franking credit beats a  term deposit ( capital risk of course). Plus your after tax return on your deposit and the deposit itself aint dong anything  for you against inflation.  But each to their own.  If you said stick it in a mortgage offset account assuming it offsets loan interest in full, fully aligned. Then it can be related back to the thematic  disposable income vs cost to keeping your toys.

Funding your toys in the past using mortgage offset dollars cost what 2.5% a year when you could lock in 3 years fixed and interest only on the principle.  250k x 2.5%pa  wasn't  no 40k a year for some.  But that cheap money seems to be a thing of the past  plus stumping up principle on top of the doubling of the rate would hurt someone funding their toy using that approach.   When RBA gov  said no interest rate rises until 2024 that perhaps didnt just influence first home buyers.  

[smit2100]

20 hours ago, 911virgin said:

So " silly offers" by low balling, tyre kicking prospective test pilots, dreamers and time wasters may actually have to be considered by these CS sellers still asking ask the moon prices?

Down to sellers person circumstances as I see it.  I have a scratch to itch ( mid engined and non porsche on a budget a bit more on top of precovid actual sell prices. ). Finding on the odd one that comes up, forget silly offers or even low ball.  Owners have the covid markup etched in their bottom line sell price.  They know what their got and not taking calls.  Appear to be happy to have it sit on consignment ( dealers wont even go back to owners unless offers are at asking - strict instructions). If private, happy to have it sit in the garage and take it for its weekly spin around the block for years to come  and just  testing  the market at their asking. There  not in a rush.  For instance, the one on consignment has been advertised for close to 2 years.  Part of the furniture on the dealers floor.

[symsy]

22 hours ago, 911virgin said:

So " silly offers" by low balling, tyre kicking prospective test pilots, dreamers and time wasters may actually have to be considered by these CS sellers still asking ask the moon prices?

Im gonna wear my shirt everyday in the new year when typing in my offers mate 😀

[edgy]

19 hours ago, mc968cs said:

I reckon cars are back to getting dearer to own than it has been for a fair while. It’s impacting volumes and prices are on way down slowly  

Eg with interest rates kicking up , for every $$250k now held in cash one now earns near $12k per year totally risk free in bank. Compared to say owning a $250k car that costs say $12k across ins, rego, tyres, service, something ageing out etc, the cost spread is now roughly $24k per year per car.  If you finance that car then I’m guesssing the spread is way more… like $40k per year?  Hold car for three years and thats $120k delta. Suddenly they cost way more than they did 1-2 years ago. thats all just one thought on it all.  
Having offloaded three extra toys it seems about right to me though. 

This is an interesting point, and one I considered in recent times with the RS, insurance, rego & annualised maintenance “just to park it there” was not an insignificant number! If you add in capital cost, I can definitely see that some people would choose to unload at the moment, especially later model cars that don’t have the ability to go to a historic rego & subsequent cheaper insurance policy. 

[JLD]

23 hours ago, 911virgin said:

So " silly offers" by low balling, tyre kicking prospective test pilots, dreamers and time wasters may actually have to be considered by these CS sellers still asking ask the moon prices?

A seller who has an inflated price is a time waster, so a bit hypocritical

[smit2100]

6 hours ago, JLD said:

A seller who has an inflated price is a time waster, so a bit hypocritical

Whats the definition of inflated price and by whose measure. @ DJM provided evidence of an inflated price on his recent gt4rs  flipper post.  Dealer configurator new price equals circa 330k. Advertised flipper no wait time buy it now price is 485k   That to most is a clearly a taking the pi55 inflated price. 

However lets assume your car is older but on  redbook and your selling your car. Your perfectly fine advertising it at or less than the current lower bound redbook price price guide.   Otherwise your just time wasting given the pro's are behind the red book numbers which is  pretty accurate right. 

[Dalai]

15 hours ago, smit2100 said:

However lets assume your car is older but on  redbook and your selling your car. Your perfectly fine advertising it at or less than the current lower bound redbook price price guide.   Otherwise your just time wasting given the pro's are behind the red book numbers which is  pretty accurate right. 

Redbook accurate?

Lists the 1984 911 coupe Private price $58,300 - $71,600!!! That's half of what they are selling for!

 

[Yeatesy]

I work in the industry and Red Book is not accurate nor do they buy cars 

[sleazius]

2 hours ago, Yeatesy said:

I work in the industry and Red Book is not accurate nor do they buy cars 

Yet every wholesaler who calls when you go to sell a modern car tries to buy at the low redbook wholesale estimate.

[Yeatesy]

19 minutes ago, sleazius said:

Yet every wholesaler who calls when you go to sell a modern car tries to buy at the low redbook wholesale estimate.

Yes they sure do 

[on_booost]

All interesting and well thought out points.......

Counterpoint:

What if Porsches (911's in particular) have been undervalued in AU?

WE (Porsche tragics) all know how good they are - but there are lot of other marques that offer less value (be it driving, maintenance, reliability, performance whatever) that used to cost a whole lot more $$$...... 

Have we just seen the Porsche take its rightful place in the pecking order?

FFS - look at the price of a new Turbo.....$550K+ What ??? How about a new 3RS @ +$600K? That makes a 991RS a steal at $450K no?

It also brings a new type of buyer to the fold - one that never considered a Porsche before. The new Enthusiast so to speak.....

There is no doubt FOMO is over. The special / rare / not many sold (due to recession  (964 Turbos anyone??) GFC or just low # sold in AU ) cars will stay up - the rest will settle.

The Days of $200K for an AC sh!tter bought sight unseen are way over. 

A comment from a highly regarded collector said during a coffee the other day - "All AC cars either NEED $100K spent on them or have just HAD $100K spent on them."

Simon.

Edited 28December, 2022 by on_booost
Clarity

[smit2100]

21 hours ago, Dalai said:

Redbook accurate?

Lists the 1984 911 coupe Private price $58,300 - $71,600!!! That's half of what they are selling for!

 

Are they accurate depends on which side of the ledger your on and whats your vested interest or personal view as I see it. You banking commissons, opportunistic low balling, paying taxes or just maximising your cash inflow.   

I would not be going to @Yeatesy or yourself for a comtemporanous assessment of what a 1984 911 is worth or any other P car even if you have access to all the private or public sales  agreeements on the books  supported by bank transactions in assertaining what their worth today.  You can s%@t can my reference to redbook all you like.  No offence taken. But  If I'm assessing outflows on dutiable value, fbt at 20% on a one year novated  sale and lease back plus a possible optional extra of further cash outflows  for Luxury sales tax on the lease at 33% for whats over  circa 70k in addition to fbt,  happy for you guys to declare  circa 140k because you had to pay overs or think white commands a 100% premium.  But  I'm with the dealers.  There accurate and  widely available as contemperaneous  supporting document on what  its worth today and would  be the basis of my starting point on taxable value discussions.

If I'm looking at a personnel cash inflow as opposed to outflows,  no f'n way is that range accurate to use as a basis for current  asking / expected value to transact  for my P car if I was to sell today.     I'm wasting everyones time according to  @JLD , but  I would be inflating my initial asking    by at least a 2 multiplier as a starting point ( similar to your view for your car) but on the high range number.  I'm just using a 2 muliplier because thats were the carsales herd is currently at based on doing a biased comparative.   I would indeed be a hypocrit if I was to give low ball offers but not at least hear them when the shoe is on the other foot.   With me my reference point is  redbook.  What was the basis of your half assessment against again.  Not that I would use it for any unilled gains, but  based on your market knowledge of what their selling for and volumes, which dark web site can we reference that contains the private and dealer sales agreements and mix of cash payments and EFT transactions to assertain the transacted dollar amount for what their actually selling for.  Verbals don't work based on my dealings with leasing companies or my indirect dealings with the ATO.