Coronavirus - what do you think?

[Jim45]

Well said jakroo.

I think we're going to get a rude shock here in Oz over the next few months and clinging to this "she'll be right" attitude is dangerous.

I have a brother who was in Beijing studying up until recently and is now in Kyrgyzstan waiting for this to pass who saw this unfolding and said the way it escalates is frightning.

Even the Kyrgyzstan government understood the risks and closed schools and borders as  a precaution with zero reported cases - I think has now changed though.

So even with the strictest controls it's an issue.

My folks in the UK are now at home self isolating, schools are closing and everyone I know there is working from home and trying to find eggs!

So we have plenty of examples of what to do - Do we need to get Italian type numbers before we decide it an issue?

Stay safe.

<<insert emoji of kicking the grim reaper in the balls>>

 

 

[firstone]

Imagine the spit that gets swapped in a footy grandstand full of people yelling.☔ 

 

[TINGY]

It won't be short term. 

Just on the news as i write this, too many people on Bondi beach, shit is getting real.

My eldest son was here this morning and he works in a power station in the Hunter Valley, there is talk of locking the workers in a bunker. 

It's a specialist job to be able to run a power station and if they have an outbreak no one will be able to run the station and we will have no power, renewables won't run shit.

[1q2w3e4r]

Correct, I'm gobsmacked no one has actually thought through the practicalities of when those who run the infrastructure get infected, or if they are unable to operate them.  I spoke with someone senior in the armed forces and the ADF engineers corps aren't able to do it

[LeeM]

4 hours ago, firstone said:

Imagine the spit that gets swapped in a footy grandstand full of people yelling.☔ 

 

 Especially Collingwood supporters 😁

[sleazius]

Keep in mind that 80% of those infected have mild symptoms. They can keep the powerstations working as long as you drop the requirement to isolate.

[Coastr]

3 hours ago, TINGY996 said:

 

It's a specialist job to be able to run a power station and if they have an outbreak no one will be able to run the station and we will have no power, renewables won't run shit.

Sometimes it takes a crisis to reveal truth as truth and BS as BS. Nobody cares about fashionable causes when bigger problems are at stake.  There’s no clutching pearls about coal power or swooning about non organic food. All those things are luxury items for easy times.

[firstone]

Kids granny lives in Mudgee.

Says two coaches pulled into town last week and stripped the supermarket shelves and left sfa for the locals. 

Onya mate. 👎

[Rick V]

I run a financial advisory business, specialising in Small to Medium businesses, many of them ‘mum & dad’ operations...cafes, restaurants, wedding photographers, corporate trainers,  tradies, with many of them going from having a full book of work, to zero work overnight. These people have done nothing wrong, but are now facing financial ruin overnight.   We have been working with our clients intensely this week, starting with Tourism & Hospitality, and then working through other impacted industries.  

The Federal Govt stimulus package (including phase 2 announced a couple of hours ago) along with support from the banks will go some way to ease the pain (But not everyone will be saved)..... we will be flat-out helping clients navigate what their options are...... all the while trying to manage my team of 40 people, many of whom are facing similar challenges, like Partners losing their jobs, school-children obligations, high-risk parents, etc and the stress & anxiety that comes with all this. 

Of course if my clients are struggling...... it is highly likely that my business wont get paid for helping them through this, so we will take a bit hit to keep our staff on.

BUT these are genuine, hard-working, risk taking SME business owners, whom are the back-bone of Australia, and they deserve to be supported through this.

Obviously there is the serious health aspect of this, but many people are assuming that  because they’re younger &/or healthy this wont affect them. This is going to have a wide-reaching economic fall-out, impacting people who would never have expected to be.   

Two weeks ago I joked with my daughter (a florist with a lot of funeral work), that two things in life are certain.... death & taxes, so both of our jobs are safe...... turns out I was wrong, as even funerals are being impacted by the new social rules/recommendations!

Stay safe people.

[Raven]

23 hours ago, Coastr said:

Sometimes it takes a crisis to reveal truth as truth and BS as BS. Nobody cares about fashionable causes when bigger problems are at stake.  There’s no clutching pearls about coal power or swooning about non organic food. All those things are luxury items for easy times.

So True Coastr,,,we will see if the hard core left wing Green,s ,,,,vegans and Social justice warriors stay true to their ideology and pushing it on others when they are out of their safe place and the world they know starts falling down around them ,,,I doubt the snow flakes will be able too cope 

[3legs]

Question and seriously I have no idea of the answer but what is going to happen with freight, especially items purchased from overseas and interstate now that the borders have been closed.

Are they going to be delivered?

I believe that Auspost will still continue to deliver as it's classified as an essential service but what about private delivery contractors.

Are they going to be able to deliver parcels to our homes?

I will declare my interest in this as I'm waiting on several parcels I have ordered in the last week with at least one of them from o/s.

Hopefully they can still deliver because at the very least it keeps the contractors employed. 

[firstone]

I have no knowledge on this subject, but I'd wager heavily that any business the economy can benefit from that potentially has little risk of spread like this industry will be kept alive.

A merchant vessel with a few crew is a like fart in a shithouse compared to cruise vessel's cargo.

Gloves and face masks on the same ship would definitely assist your cause atm. 😂

[wilson59]

37 minutes ago, 3legs said:

Question and seriously I have no idea of the answer but what is going to happen with freight, especially items purchased from overseas and interstate now that the borders have been closed.

Are they going to be delivered?

I believe that Auspost will still continue to deliver as it's classified as an essential service but what about private delivery contractors.

Are they going to be able to deliver parcels to our homes?

I will declare my interest in this as I'm waiting on several parcels I have ordered in the last week with at least one of them from o/s.

Hopefully they can still deliver because at the very least it keeps the contractors employed. 

Freight will still continue . 

[sleazius]

RIP economy.

[firstone]

Good news for people who find themselves out of work.

I know some of you have employees.

Jobseeker benifits have been increased by  $550 to around $1,100 per fortnight. Also super can be drawn down up to $20,000 if you've lost 20% of your income.

[Raven]

Up until this afternoon I have been playing this by ear and hoping that the media have made this sound far worse than it is  ,, or that Australia being a island would in some way protect us from what is going on in Europe and we would only see small infection numbers but after speaking to some friends in Belgium ,they are telling me to get serious about whats going on as it took around 3 weeks for it to over whelm their health care system .

Corona cases numbers currently are at just over 400 in NSW ,,,,not a large number but what is a concern is that it jumped a little over 100% in 7 days according to the health Gov site below .

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

If we see that happen again this week ,then clearly Government is going to have to enforce some sort of lock down to slow down the spread as it is clear what we are currently doing is not working .

Question is how long of a lock down to slow the infection rate down and allow the medical system to deal with the sick  and prevent further infection  .

Like most on this site a lock down is going to hit me in the hip pocket also ,and I am not to keen on trusting Government after spending over a decade in the ADF an seeing first hand how incompetent and care free they are , but I think we have to come to gripes with this as a likely  scenario in the coming week if the numbers continue to rise what other option do we have as it seems to be the only way they can get on top of this is to isolate the population from it ..

[LeeM]

 Great if you have super...which most contractors/sole traders I know don't have because they can't afford it, me included, so what am I going to receive? Jack shit is what! 

 Why should the long term unemployed (aka lazy f...ers) be included in this? Does the government honestly think they're going to stimulate the economy by giving them even more incentive to sit on their arse by doubling their benefits? Half of these dropkicks have never worked a day in their life, nor will do when they have everything handed to them. They should be put to work and EARN IT! 

 I've just read a bunch of comments on news social media, and a shitload of people are saying ''Beauty!" and ''Well I'll just quit my job and go on the dole coz ill be better off!" 

 It gives me the shits with all these assholes thinking they can just get a free ride in life, when hard working average people like me and the missus bust our arses only to get f...ed over every damn time. 

 @Raven They're closing all borders and cracking down on pubs and clubs not being able to open from midnight tonight. At least the bottleO will remain open so we can grab a few cheap goon bags of Riesling to wash down our Jatz biscuits 

[sleazius]

A lock down would last a bare minimum 3 months, but much more likely 6 months, with the possibility of 9 months. 12 months till a vaccine is available best case.

The economy is proper f*cked. I can’t believe the government is still only forecasting 7% unemployment. Businesses under 50M turnover account for 8.8M employees, I haven’t seen much so far to protect most of them for more than a couple of weeks.

The only way to stop wholesale job losses is if the government follows the UK and guarantees a decent chunk of people’s wages (80% in the UK capped at $60k). Otherwise you’re talking 2M people in hospitality and service out of work in short order.

[Raven]

Lee the fellow I spoke to in Belgium today is a former Belgium Parra I meet in Afghanistan in 2008 .we had similar interest and built up a solid friendship and keep in touch.

Belgium has been hit pretty hard and he warned me not to take this lightly as he is aware of the easy nature of Australians and my attitude towards adversity or hardship .......eg she will be right mate no worries soldier on 

Lee if your not in a heavily populated area you may still be able to move about and make a living ,,,this is all going to depend on the infection numbers ....Sydney has a high number of cases and if it rises then it is going to happen .

But Adelaide and South Australia currently dont have any were near as many cases so you may not be forced to go into lock down ,,fingers crossed for all states and major cites we don,t have to 

[Gavn]

5 minutes ago, Raven said:

Lee the fellow I spoke to in Belgium today is a former Belgium Parra I meet in Afghanistan in 2008 .we had similar interest and built up a solid friendship and keep in touch.

Belgium has been hit pretty hard and he warned me not to take this lightly as he is aware of the easy nature of Australians and my attitude towards adversity or hardship .......eg she will be right mate no worries soldier on 

Lee if your not in a heavily populated area you may still be able to move about and make a living ,,,this is all going to depend on the infection numbers ....Sydney has a high number of cases and if it rises then it is going to happen .

But Adelaide and South Australia currently dont have any were near as many cases so you may not be forced to go into lock down ,,fingers crossed for all states and major cites we don,t have to 

Two things that have caught my eye & further reinforced my thoughts over the last 24 hours.

 

[ArthurK]

From what I have been told by medical professionals, nearly all cases are from overseas travellers and person to person transmission within the community is negligible if not 0 up until this weekend. I dont understand how ALL people coming into the country are simply allowed to exit customs without any restrictions as to how they travel to their self quarantine locations. Infected or not these people are jumping into cabs / ubers / public transport to get home.  They are throwing billions at this to try and save jobs yet letting potential infected people simply casually make their way home from airports / ports. How do they do this I dont know but surely it can be done better than the way it currently is transpiring. 

[LeeM]

@Raven

Its bound to be a domino effect mate. When the feds sneeze, the states catch a cold.

 I wasn't stressing about my job until a couple of days ago when the boss said shit is getting very real now, as they're saying they've already lost business because of it, so going by that I can only imagine a couple of months time we could be in trouble.

 My core work is in housing trust homes doing maintenance (fixing doors, kitchens, patching walls etc), and the area manager told me during the week he's been told by his higher up that a lot of this will need to be suspended due to the virus. He thinks it's a major overreaction, yet it is what it is and the SA government will just pull the pin on it when they see fit. If that happens, theres a company that we contract to who lose business which then trickles down to us, so as there's 4 of us nearly full time doing the maintenance, someone is going to lose out. Being the last one in, I'd be one of the first to go, as I'm not a chippy who is licensed for building works. I know the boss said I'm a required contractor which is nice to hear, yet I'll just play it by ear at the moment and see what happens. 

 I'm more concerned about the missus' job with intellectually disabled people, as the company is already in damage control with their onsite care in lockdown, so home visits and excursions (what the missus does) are next on the chopping block.

[Coastr]

3 hours ago, ArthurK said:

From what I have been told by medical professionals, nearly all cases are from overseas travellers and person to person transmission within the community is negligible if not 0 up until this weekend. I dont understand how ALL people coming into the country are simply allowed to exit customs without any restrictions as to how they travel to their self quarantine locations. Infected or not these people are jumping into cabs / ubers / public transport to get home.  They are throwing billions at this to try and save jobs yet letting potential infected people simply casually make their way home from airports / ports. How do they do this I dont know but surely it can be done better than the way it currently is transpiring. 

Freedom of travel is one of the sacred cows.  Comes from the tourism economy of which we have become so dependent.  You hit the nail on the head though.

With the timelines of spread, the lag is 2-3 weeks to see if anything is working.  If you go back to page 2 of this thread I told everyone I was grounded on 4 March.  The first death in Washington state was announced on Feb 29.  March 4 was when 10 people had died and someone from my company was a confirmed case (it's a big company).   A week later the deaths were at 11 and cases were at about 240.  Schools closed on March 12.   Now the numbers are at 1699 infected and 94 deaths, and cases are going up by ~250 per day.

However New York they had their first case around March 1, and the first death around March 14.  But New York didn't start to seriously close down public transportation and gatherings until March 15, about 10 days later than Washington state.  On March 15 they had 726.  Then New York went from 1,374 cases on March 17 to 14,206 cases today, with 3,834 cases confirmed yesterday.  However deaths in New York are still half of Washington.  So in those 2 weeks New York are adding twice as many new cases per day as they had total cases 5 days ago.

What to make of all this?  For one, differences in testing in different locations definitely skew the numbers - the more testing, the more cases found.  Two, more densely populated areas spread far more quickly (eg Sydney vs rural areas).  Three, the earlier that governments closed things down, the more effective at slowing the spread.  That in part is dependent on how quickly the population takes it seriously.  As the first place it showed up in Washington was at nursing home, where it quickly killed half the residents, people took it much more seriously.  

This thing is part of our reality now, like cane toads, rabbits or prickly pear it can't be put back into the box.  There will come a time where people will have to go back to work and schools as the economic cost per life saved will no longer keep people in their houses.  Until that point, a lot of wreckage will happen.  The best possible outcome right now is that the malaria/antibiotics treatment proves successful and lowers the death rate, and a vaccine can get going.  Then normality can creep back in and allow herd immunity to build up.  

Talking to a few mates some are in 'essential services' and told to stay at work.  Others are doing it tough as all their clients/projects are diverted to the response and work put on hold.  

At least going for a drive in your Porsche can be a solo activity, there are fewer people on the roads and it helps to lower stress.

[firstone]

The dole bludgers will benifit that's true.

I don't like it.

However the measures are for those of us that will now find ourselves out of work and possibly ill or worse.

This shit is real and she'll be right won't fix it. In fact that's part of the problem.

Distance from others and hygiene is the key to avoid more drastic measures. 

I'm thinking it's a bit like war. Air raid get in a shelter. Ignore this and maybe you'll be fine maybe you'll not be. If you're injured the medics will be busier looking after you risking their life. I got this view after speaking to an AE nurse briefly. 

We can't get in front of this on our own. We have to think community and big picture. 

When the bombs stop dropping there will be a need to keep working together to clean up. Who knows it may bring us together.

 

 

 

[JV911]

On 21/03/2020 at 14:09, TINGY996 said:

Just on the news as i write this, too many people on Bondi beach, shit is getting real.

A few knobs had to ruin it for everyone. A fair proportion of new cases over the weekend were, you guessed it, backpackers in the eastern suburbs...karma's a b!tch.

On 20/03/2020 at 19:55, LeeM said:

 Are Coles and the like only admitting 100 people at a time in their stores? Of course not, so what's the difference with that compared to a bingo club? 

I'm guessing it's the type of interaction - at the pub and at bingo/housie, you're shaking hands and kissing hello, sitting in close proximity to people for hours on end, and drinking from glasses which probably haven't been cleaned as well as they should. At Coles you're in and out with no interaction...except for those people who have to handle every piece of fruit in the shop!

9 hours ago, Gavin (CliffToCoast) said:

Two things that have caught my eye & further reinforced my thoughts over the last 24 hours.

Interesting but I don't know if Italy is a good comparison. 60 million people in an area less than half the size of NSW and a very sociable, cosmopolitan society and the 2nd oldest population of any country. I have friends and family in lock-down there, but it was probably too late when that came into effect.